With the Russian invasion of Ukraine underway, many people are wondering just how long it will be until China attacks Taiwan.
A Shared Authoritarian Vision of the World
Beijing and Moscow share a vision of a new world order that challenges the United States as the global hegemon, NATO as the source of international security, and liberal democracy as a model for the world.Consequently, Beijing supporting Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine—even though Russia is globally condemned as the aggressor—is no surprise.
And there’s no doubt that Chinese leader Xi Jinping will enjoy Russia’s support when—or if—he gives the order to attack Taiwan.
There’s no guessing about that. Both countries affirmed this arrangement just before the 2022 Winter Olympic Games began in Beijing. Each country vowed that the “friendship between the two States has no limits” and that “there are no ‘forbidden’ areas of cooperation.”
Russia Paying a Steep Price
Be that as it may, Russia is paying the price for its violation of Ukraine in a variety of ways.For example, major Western businesses are cutting ties with Russia. These businesses include BP, Royal Dutch Shell, and other multinational businesses. That alone amounts to billions of dollars in lost revenues.
Boycotts of Russian goods in Europe and elsewhere are also in place. Russian banks are losing access to the SWIFT global financial clearing service, and access to the country’s $630 billion foreign reserves has been restricted. Russian stock markets have been closed, benchmark interest rates have doubled to 20 percent, and the Russian ruble is now worth less than a penny.
In the West, funds with Russian assets have seen their prices fall, public outcry and media condemnation in Europe and North America have been non-stop, and Europe and Canada have banned Russian planes from their airspace. Even yachts owned by Russian oligarchs are being seized, which admittedly is more symbolic than strategic.
China to the Rescue?
To counteract lost markets in the West, China is now importing grain from Russia, a major wheat supplier, among other agreements between the two countries. But even that’s proving to be problematic.
And at the moment, the Ukraine invasion presents a few challenges for Beijing to consider as well. One such challenge is balancing their “unlimited support” for Moscow with avoiding Russia’s fate of being decoupled from the global financial system.
Beijing Weighing the West’s Potential Response
It isn’t exactly clear how Western trading partners would react to a Chinese move against Taiwan. If their reaction bore any similarity to the Ukraine invasion, its effect would be devastating. Decoupling from the global system would be difficult and costly for China—as well as every other nation involved—for years ahead.But an invasion isn’t the only way for Beijing to achieve its objectives with regard to Taiwan.
Such a compromise could look more like Hong Kong from 1997 to 2018 than 2022 Ukraine. If that were arranged, it may spare China the pain of potential economic dislocation with its Western trading partners while allowing Taiwan some level of autonomy in the economic realm.
Can China Afford Losing the West?
However, what’s clear is that China has deep economic interests in the West, particularly in the European Union and in the United States. The effect of losing access to those markets is certain to be on the minds of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) leadership.However, it’s also critical to understand that for China, political and geopolitical priorities take precedence over economic concerns. In short, Beijing is willing to endure the economic costs to take control of Taiwan.
Uncertain Future for Xi Jinping?
There are indications that Xi doesn’t enjoy the full support of the CCP. In fact, it’s noteworthy that Xi hasn’t set foot outside of China for more than two years. According to some observers, the reason for this is that China’s “president for life’s” political survival is on thin ice.It wouldn’t only be a challenge to U.S. power in two theaters, but it may be just what Xi needs to remain in power.