In March 2020, officials called for a lockdown across most of the United States and Canada due to COVID-19. Schools closed, businesses were shuttered, and public life came to a screeching halt.
The initial plan was to slow the spread but this timeline eventually stretched into several weeks, and then months of restrictions.
Yet medical experts and policymakers say, despite the pain we’ve endured so far, even greater sacrifice is necessary, as the constant rise in COVID-19 case numbers confirm.
But many health experts promote a radically different path.
Against the Herd
Instead of lockdowns, the Great Barrington Declaration advocates for a return to life as normal, before masks were seen outside an operating room and people were able to gather with less than six feet between them. Their aim is something called “herd immunity.” The idea is that if enough healthy people catch the virus, they can develop an immunity to it, and pass these acquired antibodies to the weaker members of humanity’s herd. Public health experts behind the Declaration say their plan would give healthy people their lives back, and would actually protect those at highest risk.“The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk,” states the Declaration. “We call this Focused Protection.”
So why don’t more policymakers consider the recommendations of these experts and scientists? One reason is uncertainty and risk avoidance. We still don’t know how long natural immunity to the virus will last. Natural immunity is often temporary with coronaviruses, which is also why vaccines have limited value for these diseases. Another reason is censorship. All throughout the pandemic, numerous doctors and scientists have come forward with insights and evidence that challenge the conventional approach. However, social media has routinely censored or scrubbed much of the public testimony. Once viral videos are now impossible to find.
Tech companies say they silence the stray crackpots who spew false claims about COVID-19 in order to prevent “imminent physical harm.” But what if some of these renegade ideas have merit, and what if the number of experts behind them is considerable?
“We cannot afford distractions that undermine an effective response; it is essential that we act urgently based on the evidence,” states the Lancet letter.
However, herd immunity supporters can point to real world evidence that lessening restrictions may actually be healthier for society overall. Sweden was credited early on with keeping case numbers low despite avoiding lockdown rules that have decimated personal and national economies in other countries.
“The state hasn’t issued lockdowns or mask mandates. We haven’t shut down businesses or closed churches,” writes Noem. “In fact, our state has never even defined what an ‘essential business’ is. That isn’t the government’s role.”
South Dakota has since seen a rise in COVID cases, but that rise has not come at the same social and economic expense to the state that it has to other states with strict lockdown measures.
“Herd immunity has not been achieved. Infections are rising once again,” Horton wrote. “And many Swedish scientists believe that too many citizens have needlessly died from a policy that didn’t take the consequences of COVID-19 seriously.”
Horton says he understands the allure of a herd immunity approach in a population struggling with quarantine-fatigue. But he warns that governments who take this road will face higher infection rates, and overwhelmed hospitals.
Horton also worries that the promotion of strategies that stray from conventional measures puts the public’s delicate trust at risk.
Follow the Science?
So how do you find the truth among conflicting perspectives and the systematic censorship of dissenting voices? Health experts and policymakers give lip service to science, but does another force have an even greater influence?“Politicians often claim to follow the science, but that is a misleading oversimplification. Science is rarely absolute,” researchers wrote. “Politicisation of science was enthusiastically deployed by some of history’s worst autocrats and dictators, and it is now regrettably commonplace in democracies.”
The BMJ article points to specific examples of corruption in the UK’s pandemic response, but it says a similar corrupting force can be found all over the world.
“Government appointees are able to ignore or cherry-pick science ... and indulge in anti-competitive practices that favor their own products and those of friends and associates,” states the article.
“It’s been on the market for 65 years. I’ve prescribed it for 30 years for systemic lupus, rheumatoid arthritis, and to treat and prevent malaria. It’s a very safe and effective medication. In India and Greece, it’s in their guidelines to use it first line,” McCullough said.
McCullough believes there has never really been any controversy about whether hydroxychloroquine works. The controversy is in the public policy that guides its use. He says that although the medicine is widely prescribed for COVID-19 all over the world, in certain countries—such as the United States, Canada, U.K, and Australia—patients suffer because doctors are discouraged from prescribing any home treatment.
“The public health approach is just about wearing masks, staying at home, sheltering in place, and waiting for a vaccine. It must be part of the master plan. But for people who get sick, it obviously doesn’t work.” McCullough said. “So the population is now so hungry for a vaccine just to move on. But the means don’t justify the ends in my view.”
The BMJ article takes no position on lockdowns, and it expresses concern that hydroxychloroquine was “hastily approved” in the U.S. But it carries a warning that resonates with much of our understanding and policy COVID-19: when good science is suppressed for political or financial gain, people die.
“COVID-19 has unleashed state corruption on a grand scale, and it is harmful to public health,” states the BMJ article. “Politicians and industry are responsible for this opportunistic embezzlement. So too are scientists and health experts. The pandemic has revealed how the medical-political complex can be manipulated in an emergency—a time when it is even more important to safeguard science.”