The most recent crisis in Ukraine and simmering tensions in Taiwan are the result of America’s fallout from Afghanistan. But building a base in Poland is a simple but effective way to mitigate both situations.
The fall of Kabul and the disgraceful and disorganized withdrawal of U.S. soldiers and many civilians from Afghanistan has drawn comparisons to the fall of Saigon. The abandonment of so many Afghani green card and SIV holders and allies has also led to legitimate questions about American credibility.
It has been a few months, but the consequences are present to this day. There are allies around the world that rely on America. They often have a smaller military than the threats they face, and rely on American promises as a deterrent, and count on quick American support in the case of an attack. In the most recent case, Russian aggression against Ukraine seems like one of many instances in which U.S. allies will question the utility of American help.
The most dangerous weakness of the United States is the strategic perception of an isolationist America unwilling to use force, such as quick support for Taiwan in the case of Chinese aggression or serious decisions to stop Russian aggression against Ukraine. As a result of that perception, America needs something much bigger or bolder to help change it. Bold is usually a Washington term that suggests massive spending. But here I am talking about better strategic military decisions to compensate for the cause of the loss of confidence.
The answer to the danger in the Taiwan Strait and Ukraine, ironically enough, is found in a commitment to another ally. America should build a base in Poland. This is more than sending aid or placing a few units that can be also withdrawn more easily. Building a base is more permanent and will anger Russia. This is a concern that should be noted and assessed.
But while it’s true we shouldn’t needlessly antagonize Russia, we also shouldn’t give them a veto against self-defense of us and our allies. Considering Russian seizure of the Crimea, intimidation of countries like Montenegro and Macedonia, the active undermining and possible war in Ukraine, and Vladimir Putin’s aggressive nationalist rhetoric, the United States has a much more solid case for needed defense in the region.
In short, the base would provide a sign of commitment, and the units stationed there are elements that would provide a better response to either region. Both of which would signal American commitment and possibly a deterrent.
This commitment is the most important point. It directly addresses the strategic perception that might cause Taiwan to question American commitment. In both World War I and II, Poland relied on Western allies like France and Great Britain to protect it from Eastern threats such as Germany and Russia. But the allied commitment to Poland was so sparse that after Germany invaded Poland, which invoked declarations of war from Britain and France, the Western European conflict with Germany was called the “Phony War.”
America can’t change its past, and the withdrawal from Afghanistan will remain a black eye for years to come. And the Biden administration will likely be unwilling to commit to a base in Poland for all the reasons it decided to leave Afghanistan. It seems to be doing little to help Ukraine. But American policymakers and generals should consider the idea, so when a president that is serious about restoring American credibility is elected, he or she can make that quick decision.
