Negotiated in secret and sprung on the world last week, Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States have created a new defense pact that is a direct if unspoken challenge to the growing Chinese military threat in Asia.
Diesel-electric submarines are quiet and effective, but they are also limited in how long they can operate submerged. They must frequently surface and run noisy diesel engines in order to recharge their batteries.
Modern conventional submarines are being supplemented with various “air-independent propulsion” (AIP) systems such as fuel cells, but they are still inferior to nuclear-powered submarines.
Nuclear-powered submarines, in contrast, are able to operate underwater for months. They are also faster, have a longer range, and are much harder to detect. They are the ultimate stealth weapon.
Australia had planned on replacing its Collins-class submarines with new diesel-electric boats, and in 2016 France won a hard-fought contest to supply the Royal Australian Navy (RAN) with a conventionally powered version of its Barracuda-class nuclear-powered attack submarine.
Now, however, the RAN has scrapped this contract and will partner instead with the UK and the United States on a new nuclear-powered submarine, based on American and British technology. Over the next 18 months, the three countries, under the terms of the new AUKUS pact, will develop a new design and work out the necessary technologies.
The AUKUS alliance has many implications. In the short term, it is simply a tech-transfer agreement to supply the RAN with nuclear-powered submarines.
If Australia gets nuclear-powered submarines, that could pressure or entice other Asian-Pacific navies—particularly Japan and South Korea—to also get on board, so as not to be left behind in terms of technology. That, in turn, could open up the likelihood that other parts of Asia will also “go nuclear,” at least in terms of propulsion systems.
It is not inconceivable that the South Koreans might want to pair its SLBM capability with a nuclear-powered boat. If so, could Japan be far behind?
Obviously, the nuclear dimension of the AUKUS pact crosses into new territory. More than that, however, the agreement is intended to spur innovation in a variety of new military technologies, particularly artificial intelligence, robotics, hypersonic weapons, cyber, and new undersea systems (such as autonomous long-endurance underwater drones).
Finally, the AUKUS agreement could become the kernel of a new regional alliance to coordinate Western security and collective defense in the Pacific. It goes a long way toward repairing Australian-U.S. ties that were fractured by the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, which was poorly coordinated with Washington’s allies. In addition, AUKUS brings the United Kingdom more solidly back into Asia and aligns with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s vision of a more globally engaged Britain.
All these developments are bad news for China. Although the Biden administration insists that the AUKUS pact is “not aimed or about any one country,” the message is clearly about crafting a unified and coordinated response to an increasingly assertive and militarily capable China.
China hopes that it can kill this alliance in the cradle, but its ham-fisted “wolf warrior” actions will doubtlessly backfire on it. The AUKUS pact is a direct response to Chinese aggression, and Beijing has no one to blame but itself.