Javier Milei’s victory in Argentina’s Nov. 19 presidential election runoff offers Washington a rare opportunity to blunt, even halt, China’s strategic momentum in Latin America that is based on promoting wars, which politically isolate the enemies of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
Bejing is doing this now in the Middle East, taking a page from the former Soviet Union’s playbook, promoting wars against Israel to then build Arab unity against the democracies.
China’s trade and investment that economically buoy Iran’s economy—when added to the Chinese regime’s decades of military technology transfers—enabled Iran to arm, fund, and even help direct the Oct. 7 savage Hamas war against Israel.
The CCP’s economic and military support also enables Iran to develop nuclear missiles and to build Hezbollah and its surrogate Houthis rebels into missile-armed enemies of Israel.
Having started to provide Saudi Arabia with nuclear-capable DF-3 liquid fuel medium-range missiles in 1988, China upgraded them to solid fuel DF-21s in 2014 and is now helping the Saudis to build their nuclear fuel cycle, which could lead to a nuclear weapons capability.
Having engineered the beginning of a diplomatic rapprochement between antagonists Sunni Muslim Saudi Arabia and Shia Muslim Iran in March, it is conceivable that the CCP’s direct and indirect assistance could be the basis for Iran and Saudi Arabia to achieve near-simultaneous nuclear weapons status.
But China’s nuclear and missile proliferation to North Korea now presents Beijing with deniable options for arming the Houthis and Hezbollah with new, likely China-assisted North Korean tactical nuclear weapons. Israel has already captured North Korean non-nuclear weapons from Hamas.
So it is not far-fetched that the CCP’s medium-term goal is to build an increasingly nuclear-armed united Saudi–Iran, Sunni–Shia front against Israel to wage a “transformative war” that could see a pro-China pan-Arab unity emerge from the destruction of Israel.
Beijing’s choice of a fulcrum on which to build its transformative war in Latin America has been its 15-year project to create a second war over the Falklands Islands that would result in generations of Latin American enmity against the United States, perhaps to the point of Latin states welcoming the basing of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conventional and even nuclear weapons.
The CCP has successfully enveloped the Peronists’ side of Argentine politics in the pursuit of this war, especially the faction tied to former President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (2007–2015).
Starting in the late 2000s, China began pushing new arms sales to her administration, which, by 2015, was considering new Chinese arms, including 24 Chengdu FC-1/JF-17 4+ generation fighters, five missile-armed corvettes, and 100 co-produced Norinco VN-1 armored fighting vehicles.
The previous Peronist administration of President Alberto Fernandez (2019-2023), whose vice president was Fernandez de Kirchner, also sought to advance arms purchases from China, especially JF-17 fighters.
Had China been successful with its early rounds of arms sales, more would follow, perhaps to include submarines, long-range ballistic missiles, and even “North Korean” tactical nuclear weapons.
But as early as 2012, the Chinese regime gained its first military space base in Latin America when Fernandez de Kirchner approved a 50-year land lease in Argentina’s Neuquen Province for China to build a space tracking and control base.
This base, controlled by the PLA, could be used to guide Antarctica-traversing Chinese nuclear-armed fractional orbital bombardment system (FOBS) missiles attacking the United States from undefended southern routes.
Then, in a move most likely intended to strengthen the appeal of weakened Peronist presidential candidate Sergio Massa in September, Argentina was invited to join the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) grouping, a largely Beijing-led proto-alliance that aims to displace U.S. influence and promote that of China and Russia.
Amid the CCP’s push to bring war and conflict to Latin America, Mr. Milei’s victory is nothing short of a strategic miracle. During his campaign, Mr. Milei has made no secret of his disdain for China, saying he will not deal with “communists.”
On Nov. 20, Mr. Milei’s principal foreign policy adviser, Diana Mondino, said that Argentina would not be accepting the invitation to join the China-dominated BRICS grouping, and it appears that Mr. Milei will not be continuing the Peronist’s pursuit of rearmament via Chinese weapons.
This decision is historic: Argentina would be the first country to “withdraw” from the BRICS and would be proof to all countries in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and other Chinese-led proto-alliances that they can choose their sovereignty over the CCP’s increasing hegemonic envelopment.
It will not be easy for the leftist Biden administration. Still, it is now necessary for Washington to offer the anti-communist, “anarchocapitalist” libertarian, Donald Trump-fan President Milei a strategic deal that could blunt, if not reverse, Beijing’s momentum toward war in Latin America.
Mr. Milei is perhaps the only force in Argentine politics that might agree with the merits of such a deal, the goals of which would be to strengthen Latin American and U.S. security while strengthening Argentine sovereignty and offering a third path to diminishing the appeal of a new Falklands War.
First, as the U.S. Air Force has maintained a long-term excellent relationship with the Argentine Air Force, it is necessary for the United States to rapidly subsidize the sale of retired European Lockheed Martin F-16 fighters approved for sale to Argentina to meet a longstanding requirement for modern air defenses.
As Washington has just approved the sale of ex-Norwegian Lockheed Martin P-3C maritime patrol aircraft to Argentina, the United States should offer ex-U.S. Coast Guard ships and greater U.S. Coast Guard engagement to help Argentina and other Latin states to limit the scourge of predatory Chinese fishing fleets.
Then Washington should make clear to all of its Latin partners that China’s nuclear FOBS missiles and space bases are linked in their purpose of threatening Latin states, the United States, and Europe with a new form of nuclear attack.
This Chinese threat now requires the construction of defenses: first, the building of very long-range radar detection systems to complement space-based early warning capabilities, and then the construction of anti-ballistic missile defenses to intercept Chinese nuclear FOBS missiles.
Such a project would require the United States to seek Britain’s approval and participation, as the Falklands remain British territory.
The Falklands would be an attractive early location for such early warning radar and missile defenses, as it could cover an azimuth extending west to cover most of the Antarctic missile approaches and to the east covering most missile approaches over the South Atlantic.
Perhaps such missile radar warning and potential missile defense bases could be jointly manned by operators from Britain, the United States, and multiple Latin states, starting with Argentina, Chile, and Brazil.
Such a deal would be aided by Britain considering a “free trade zone” regime for the Falklands, first in cooperation with Argentina, including an Argentine agreement to “shelve” the sovereignty dispute for 100 years. The larger point is to enable Argentina to obtain military and economic benefits from the Falklands without recourse to war.
In so doing, the United States, Britain, and Argentina can provide leadership to defend against a real Chinese nuclear threat and halt, perhaps even reverse, Latin America’s current momentum toward the CCP’s strategic envelopment.
