Commentary
The greatest threats to U.S. national security in 2024 include terrorism, drug trafficking, the crisis at the southern border, the expansion of the Middle East conflict, a potential Taiwan war, the expansion of the Ukraine conflict, and foreign influence in U.S. elections from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
According to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s Homeland Threat Assessment 2024, terrorism—both foreign and domestic—remains a top security threat. Groups such as al-Qaeda and ISIS are rebuilding their overseas networks, which could result in attacks on the U.S. homeland. Domestic terrorists, as well as those radicalized by foreign influence, pose a growing threat of violence. Attacks on U.S. infrastructure, including financial networks and power grids, are expected to increase, perpetrated by terrorists as well as state actors Russia, China, Iran, and possibly North Korea. Additionally, technological advances are strengthening adversaries’ tactics.
Drug trafficking is arguably the biggest threat in terms of U.S. lives lost. Thousands of Americans die each year from drug overdoses, with most of the illegal drugs being produced in Mexico, using chemicals produced in China, and trafficked into the United States by Mexican drug cartels. U.S.-based traffickers are increasingly involved in mixing and distributing fentanyl and other synthetic drugs. However, many of the domestic drug operations are conducted by Mexican and foreign cartels operating inside the United States.
A discussion of the drug crisis leads back to the migration crisis and border security. In 2022, a record number of illegal immigrants crossed into the United States. Apart from Latin American migrants, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is reporting increasing numbers of Chinese and Russian nationals, as well as individuals on the Terrorist Screening Data Set.
The DHS report reads: “We have encountered growing numbers of individuals in the Terrorist Screening Data Set (TSDS), also known as the ‘watchlist.’ Also, TCOs [Transnational Criminal Organizations] continue to exploit this complex environment to smuggle deadly drugs across our borders, often through ports of entry, and to extort and mislead migrants seeking to enter the United States.” This trend is expected to continue and worsen, it states, as “terrorists and criminal actors may exploit the elevated flow and increasingly complex security environment to enter the United States.”
Moving from the U.S. border to the global stage, the Israel–Hamas conflict has exhibited clear signs of escalation. Lebanon has protested Israel’s recent killing of a prominent Hezbollah leader and Iran-backed militias have initiated attacks across the Middle East, prompting U.S. retaliatory strikes. A bomb blast in Iran injured more than 200 people during an event commemorating the fourth anniversary of the killing of Gen. Qasem Soleimani, an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leader taken down by a U.S. drone strike.
The Houthis have been targeting cargo ships in the Red Sea, leading the United States to form an international coalition to safeguard merchant ships in the region. Despite President Joe Biden’s aim to avoid direct military conflict, on Dec. 31, 2023, U.S. Navy forces sank three Houthi boats that had attacked a container ship, resulting in the deaths of all crew members. Consequently, the conflict is already expanding, raising the question of how far it will extend.
In Europe, expansion of the Russia–Ukraine war could draw the United States and/or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) into a major conflict with Russia. Despite waning public support, Washington continues to provide Ukraine with billions of dollars worth of assistance. The frequency of Russian cyberattacks on the United States has risen alongside propaganda campaigns aimed at undermining domestic support for Ukraine. Moreover, Russia’s heightened missile assaults on Ukraine are encroaching on the airspace of NATO-member Poland, a development that poses a risk of triggering a more extensive conflict.
The specter of conflict over Taiwan appears increasingly unavoidable. In his New Year’s address, Chinese leader Xi Jinping reaffirmed his commitment to absorbing Taiwan. As Taiwan prepares for its upcoming general elections this month, the outcome will significantly shape its policies toward the mainland. As election day approaches, the anticipation is that China’s interference will escalate. If the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), known for its pro-independence stance, secures reelection, the CCP may respond with military exercises and incursions into Taiwan’s sovereign sea and airspace. There’s also a distinct possibility that the elections could be the catalyst for a full-scale invasion of Taiwan.
In conclusion, the CCP maintains a keen interest in the outcome of U.S. presidential elections, having previously sought to influence the 2022 midterm elections and anticipated to do so again in 2024. Beyond spreading disinformation and propaganda, persistent threats from the CCP encompass economic crimes and industrial espionage.
The rise of technology, particularly the widespread availability of artificial intelligence (AI) tools, is fortifying the tactics of adversaries. The landscape becomes increasingly complex as nations exploit AI for misinformation campaigns and cyber actors leverage AI for more efficient and elusive cyberattacks. At present, Beijing is at the forefront of disruptive AI technology.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
