Commentary
“Strategic ambiguity” has been the longstanding policy of the United States with regard to defending it against Chinese aggression from across the Taiwan Strait. In keeping with the term, the actual meaning of strategic ambiguity is, well, ambiguous.
Idea Behind Ambiguity
The gist of the ambiguity strategy is that U.S. military planners and policymakers think that it’s most effective to keep both Beijing and Taipei guessing regarding U.S. defense plans concerning Taiwan. Not knowing if the United States would defend Taiwan, and if so, under what circumstances and by what means, supposedly made it much more difficult for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to plan an invasion of the island nation.As for the Taiwanese, ambiguity serves to keep them on their toes militarily and maintain readiness rather than becoming militarily weak, as some European allies had become under U.S. security guarantees. It also has kept Taipei from declaring independence from Beijing, which could trigger an escalatory response from China.
It could be said that this commitment to non-commitment, as it were, served the United States and Taiwan well over the past decades. After all, mainland China has yet to launch an invasion to conquer Taiwan, at least not militarily. Nonetheless, China’s influence over economic, political, and cultural affairs in Taiwan has certainly increased over the years.
China Goes From Competitor to Global US Adversary
But it would be unwise to regard the past as a prologue. Today, China is, on every level, a qualitatively different country than it was even 10 or 20 years ago. Both strategically and militarily, China now is a direct competitor, if not an adversary to the United States. The latter is more accurate.Furthermore, China’s ambitions are to replace U.S. influence on a global scale, not just in the South Pacific or even in the Asia-Pacific region.
They’re well on their way to doing so. In terms of projecting power, Beijing now fields a blue water navy that exceeds the number of ships than that of the United States. Though the U.S. Navy is superior to China’s, superior numbers allow Chinese naval presence to assert itself in more areas around the world at once. Perceptions matter.
What’s more, China now controls most of the key sea gates, those strategic chokepoints of the world’s most important waterways. Controlling the world’s waterways is one of the three pillars of sea power, and China has successfully done so. Those sea gates include the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal access to the Mediterranean Sea, and the Red Sea access point to the Indian Ocean via the Port of Djibouti, and many others.
Furthermore, China’s strategic arsenal includes nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles as well as hypersonic anti-ship and nuclear missiles designed specifically to neutralize U.S. naval power and strategic arsenal. Whether the U.S. military is up to the task of defending itself against China’s strategic forces is up to debate.
US Decline Is Unambiguous
Conversely, the United States is not the same country that it used to be. Concurrent with China’s rise has been a demonstrable and consistent downgrading of American military capabilities. Recent policy decisions have certainly contributed to that.The decision to back Ukraine in its efforts to push back Russian invaders has depleted our military readiness in terms of munitions, tanks, and other war-making material and support items. In the short term, the United States simply cannot outproduce Russia’s war-making productive capacity.
US Policy Decisions Tarnish Its Reputation
What’s more, the Ukraine policy is degrading our reputation as a nation that is strategically serious. The war is a tragedy that could have been mostly avoided by not making Ukraine a NATO puppet. We’re backing a deeply corrupt country that, in its war effort, is moving further down the road toward a personality-driven neo-fascism, not away from it.The U.S. military’s exit from Afghanistan was another policy blunder that left billions of dollars worth of advanced military equipment, including sophisticated attack aircraft, tanks, and more, behind for our enemies such as the Taliban and Iran. Our hasty and unannounced retreat also destroyed the trust of our allies and made America look like the rapidly declining power that it apparently is.
It’s for these reasons, and others having to do with a president that inspires neither confidence in our allies nor fear in our adversaries, that the U.S.’ strategic ambiguity approach to Taiwan’s security no longer makes sense. Not only are U.S. security policies less definite and reliable than they used to be, but U.S. military readiness and capacity to deter Chinese aggression and defend Taiwan from invasion by China are now ambiguous at best.
US Intentions, Political Will, and Capabilities Degraded
The irony is as clear as it is disturbing. Three major factors of power in international relations are the intentions of a policy, the will to support those intentions, and the military capability to enforce your policy upon others. With respect to the U.S. security plans for Taiwan, the ambiguity is growing in all three areas.The U.S. military’s ability to deter China from aggressive behavior toward Taiwan is declining by the day. Chinese military aircraft repeatedly penetrate Taiwan’s air space, and they conduct military exercises near the island without consequence, making the veracity of Beijing’s vow to bring Taiwan under its control by 2027 seem more likely than not.
Beijing Doesn’t Fear the Biden Administration
What’s also ambiguous is U.S. intentions regarding Taiwan’s defense. In the event of an invasion by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), does the Biden administration really intend to send American sailors and soldiers to fight with the Taiwanese against the Chinese?Given the policy decisions of the Biden administration so far, that seems highly unlikely, and much less ambiguous.
But what’s not in the least ambiguous is the U.S.’ declining military capability to defend Taiwan in absolute terms. China’s numerically superior navy dwarfs the U.S. navy, which itself could be the deciding factor in a naval battle. In fact, there is great doubt the United States is still capable of actually defending Taiwan.
Working from that assumption, perhaps the least ambiguous option for Taiwan would be to take a page out of North Korea’s book and arm itself with a nuclear defense force as soon as it can.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
