Public perceptions of China have hardly changed over the past year. This is amazing, given all the ugly financial and economic news of the past 12–18 months. China has a very different look now than in this backward-looking view. As the news of trouble gains greater currency, global perceptions will suffer a shock and then change fast.
One of the most telling things about this recent survey is the persistence—despite the news of China’s troubles—of the once-common perception that China will soon overtake the United States in global influence and economic strength. Universally, respondents identified the United States presently as the nation with the greatest global influence. However, respondents said they expect that within five years, China’s influence will just about rival that of America’s and that China will surpass the United States as the world’s most powerful economy.
For years, these were common beliefs and a reasonable extrapolation of trends that had existed for a long time. China had grown at a phenomenal pace and seemed to be getting rich beyond all earlier expectations. That view seems to have persisted. But the past couple of years have interrupted those strongly positive trends. The reality now says something very different about how fast China can make the gains once so widely expected. Now, China faces a dangerous debt overhang, and its pace of economic growth has slowed radically. Exports are falling, and Western investments, as well as trade, are looking elsewhere. It is no longer a question of whether perceptions will change but how fast the change will come.
It speaks volumes to the backward-looking aspect of these expectations that respondents to this survey, especially in Western Europe, feel more strongly about China’s coming economic and diplomatic dominance than they did last year. China’s recent economic troubles may not be enough to change perceptions entirely, but for people who are paying attention, the news would surely make them less confident. Either the Western Europeans dismiss the past year’s news from China out of hand, or they are simply ignorant of what has happened to that economy and its financial system. The latter explanation is more likely the truth.
One thing in this survey does fit reality and has changed very little. That is the negative view Westerners have of Beijing’s aims and behavior. Though respondents generally advocate cooperation between the West and China, a mere 23 percent of those surveyed across all 14 countries see China as an economic “partner.” More than half see China as either a “competitor” or a “rival.” (The balance of respondents had no opinion.) The most negative opinions came from the United States and Western Europe, especially Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. Indeed, the Europeans as a group are even more negative than the Americans, the exact opposite of the more strident rhetoric coming out of leadership in the United States than in Europe. From this assessment, it is hardly surprising that people on both sides of the Atlantic advocate that their governments take a tougher line with Beijing.
Since the economic and financial problems evident today will continue to plague China for some time to come, chances are good that the world at large—Asia first and then the West—will become more completely aware of the Middle Kingdom’s severe challenges and change their opinions. Next year’s Marshall Fund survey will likely show a very different face than this past year’s. Respondents will see China as less likely to gain global influence or as rapidly. At the same time, perceptions of China as less a partner and more a rival or competitor will become starker. Perceptions of Chinese weakness may, however, dull the conclusion that Beijing requires a harder line than nations are presently showing.
