Japan’s Next Prime Minister Is Likely to Pursue a Balanced International Policy, Experts Say

Shigeru Ishiba, the newly elected leader of Japan's ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), looks on during a press conference in Tokyo, on Sept 27, 2024. Kim Kyung/pool photo via AP

Shigeru Ishiba, a former defense minister who is set to become Japan’s next prime minister, will likely pursue a balanced international policy while pursuing a more assertive regional alliance against China, according to experts.

They also said that Ishiba’s fifth and successful attempt at leading the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the country shows Japanese politicians’ demand for a middle-of-the-road leader.

Nine candidates competed in the latest LDP presidency election, which ended on Sept. 27.

Ishiba finished second in the first round and won the run-off, held if no candidate won a majority. Shinjiro Koizumi, a former environment minister and the leader in the polls, finished third and didn’t make it to the run-off. Sanae Takaichi, the female economic security minister seen as the successor to the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, a leader hawkish to China, lost to Ishiba in the run-off despite coming in first during the first round.

Akio Yaita, a Japanese journalist and director of the Taipei branch of the Japanese newspaper Sankei Shimbun, told The Epoch Times that Ishiba’s win suggests his moderate foreign policy approach resonated with voters.

With Japan’s House of Representatives election coming up, Yaita said Ishiba’s centrist stance could attract some middle-ground voters in the Diet and make it easier for the LDP to form a ruling coalition again.

Szu-shen Ho, director of the Center of Japan and East Asia Studies at Fu Jen Catholic University in Taiwan, also told The Epoch Times that Ishiba’s moderate approach offers the LDP a better way to broaden its support base among lawmakers.

According to Yaita, Ishiba’s advocacy of a stronger defense should not be misconstrued as military expansionism.

Ishiba has long advocated the creation of an “Asian NATO”—an alliance with Australia and South Korea, while also extending Japan’s security ties with European nations such as the UK and France—to strengthen Japan’s security system and maintain peace in the region.

“Ukraine today is Asia tomorrow. Replacing Russia with China and Ukraine with Taiwan, the absence of a collective self-defense system like NATO in Asia means that wars are likely to break out because there is no obligation for mutual defense,” he wrote in a paper to the Washington-based think tank Hudson Institute, published on Sept. 18.

“Under these circumstances, the creation of an Asian version of NATO is essential to deter China by its Western allies.”

Daniel Kritenbrink, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, called the “Asian NATO” approach “too early” at a Sept. 17 event at the Stimson Center, another Washington-based think tank.

“What we are focused on is investing in the region’s existing formal architecture and continuing to build this network of formal and informal relationships. Then, we’ll see where that goes,” he said.

However, Ishiba remained determined.

Following his victory, Ishiba held a press conference on Sept. 27 to announce plans to create a comprehensive system to protect Japan. He stressed the urgency of addressing recent September incidents, including Russian military aircraft violating Japanese airspace and a Chinese survey ship sailing into Japan’s territorial waters.

To improve Japan’s deterrence and response capabilities, he said, Japan “must be given the ability to respond.” He proposed an ”organic integration” of the U.S.–Japan, U.S.–Korea, and U.S.–Philippines alliance frameworks.

Ho said that the proposed “Asian NATO” will strengthen the Indo-Pacific region’s ability to counter threats from China, North Korea, and Russia.

Ho also praised Ishiba’s long-held views on security and constitutional reform, which aims to formally recognize the defense function of Japan’s Self-Defense Forces (SDF) in the Constitution, as “pragmatic and rational” in today’s international landscape.

Japan’s SDF is primarily defensive in nature, reflecting the country’s post-World War II constitution. The SDF protects Japan’s sovereignty and ensures regional stability.

Ishiba supports the idea that Japan’s SDF should be able to exercise the right of collective self-defense—defending Japan and allied countries—if the nation’s survival is threatened.

In addition, at a Sept. 27 press conference, he reiterated the establishment of an SDF training base in the United States, which he said would be “extremely effective in strengthening the alliance. “

Yaita compared Ishiba and the economic security minister, Takaichi, his opponent in the run-off.

“In terms of defense, Ishiba is more stable and predictable than Takaichi,” Yaita said.

“When it comes to U.S.–Japan relations and Japan’s relations with neighboring countries, Ishiba is also more measured and less likely to make unexpected moves.”

Ho also said that Ishiba is relatively stable in foreign policy and strategies regarding Japan’s security.

“He is unlikely to cause any surprises or problems for the Indo-Pacific region or the United States. His support for strengthening Japan’s defense capabilities should not be seen as expansionism, but rather as a response to the evolving security landscape in the Indo-Pacific,” Ho said.

During his visit to Taiwan in August, Ishiba emphasized the need for deterrence but avoided making specific public commitments regarding Japan’s potential military involvement in Taiwan.

Compared to other candidates, Ishiba is seen as a “dove” among a group of hawks regarding China policy. However, Yaita said Ishiba has always advocated a more measured approach to avoid provoking China or South Korea. By contrast, his opponent, Takaichi, could form a stronger alliance with Taiwan, leading to escalating conflicts with China, he said.

Yaita doesn’t think Japan’s new prime minister can implement pro-China policies given the country’s overall political climate.

“In fact, Ishiba’s proposal for an ‘Asian NATO’ positions China as an adversary,” he said.

Xin Ning contributed to this report.