Commentary
While Russia is dominating headlines with the Ukraine invasion and China’s economic, political, and military expansion is being monitored closely, Iran-sponsored terrorism remains the third largest challenge, according to the U.S. intelligence community.
‘"ISIS, al-Qa‘ida, and Iran and its militant allies will take advantage of weak governance to continue to plot terrorist attacks against U.S. persons and interests, including to varying degrees in the United States, and exacerbate instability in regions such as Africa and the Middle East,” wrote the Office of the Director of National Intelligence in its annual report of the U.S. Assessment Threat Intelligence Community.
Iran’s threat to the United States includes direct missile attacks, cyberattacks, assassinations, and sponsorship of terrorist organizations and proxy forces, as well as the increasing danger posed by its nuclear enrichment program.
Iran projects its own power in the region of North Africa and the Middle East, eroding U.S. influence. U.S. military and civilians in Israel and U.S. oil trading partner Saudi Arabia are at the highest risk. In August, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards commander-in-chief Hossein Salami threatened that there were “hundreds of thousands of missiles” pointed at Israel. As for Saudi Arabia, Riyadh warned in November of possible Iranian attacks on targets inside Saudi territory. Iran was also blamed for missile attacks on Saudi refineries in 2019.
Iran backs Shia forces in Iraq, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, and Lebanon, which fight proxy wars against Westerners and Sunnis in the region. Iran indirectly supports terrorist groups, including Hamas, the Lebanese Hizballah, Shia militias in Iraq, and the Huthis in Yemen. Iran directly supports the Syrian regime. Through its support of the Syrian government, Iran and Russia together are indirectly responsible for the deaths of over 400,000 Syrians.
Syrian refugees prepare to return to Syria from Wadi Hmayyed, on the outskirts of the Lebanese border town of Arsal, Lebanon, on Oct. 26, 2022. Mohamed Azakir/Reuters
Over the past three years, Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence has been responsible for cyberattacks on Israeli water infrastructure in 2020, the Boston Children’s Hospital in 2021, and the Albanian government in 2022.
The latest tensions with Iran come after OPEC refused a U.S. request to raise production volumes. Many in the U.S. Congress advised the president to stop providing Saudi Arabia with weapons, which would leave the Kingdom vulnerable to an Iranian attack.
The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) monitors the threat Iran poses to the United States. As of October, ISIS ranked the Iran threat “high danger” with a score of 130 out of a possible 180. The assessment is conducted across six dimensions, and each one is assigned a score of 0-30 points: hostile actions (22 points); hostile rhetoric (28 points); lack of transparency in compliance with nuclear inspections (17 points); nuclear breakout (30 points); sensitive nuclear capabilities (17 points); and beyond breakout converting highly enriched uranium into nuclear weapons (16 points).
Iran’s recent hostile actions and deeds, as well as speculation that it is closing in on nuclear weapons technology, have increased the threat level.
In 2020, Iran launched missile attacks on Iraqi bases hosting U.S. forces.
In August 2022, the U.S. Department of Justice formally charged Shahram Poursafi of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps with attempting to pay for the assassination of former U.S. national security adviser John Bolton and a second individual who authorities believe was former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, according to Axios.
Iran often engages in provocative actions against U.S. Naval vessels in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. In September, Iran captured U.S. Navy drones.
Iran has also sold drones to Russia, which are now being deployed in Ukraine. U.S. authorities believe that the August shipment of Mohajer-6 and Shahed-series drones to Moscow will be the first of many planned transfers of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). In October, Iran agreed to sell Russia surface-to-surface missiles as well as more drones.
With over 3,000 missiles, Iran has the world’s largest arsenal of conventionally armed ballistic missiles, many of which are precision-guided with ranges of up to 1,242 miles. And this does not include Iran’s growing supply of land-attack cruise missiles. While Iran does not possess nuclear weapons capabilities yet, many of these missiles can carry a nuclear payload. For this reason, watchdog agencies closely monitor Iran’s nuclear development programs.
The threat from Iran has increased since anti-government protests started in September. Iranian authorities have reacted violently to these protests and killed at least 130 protesters. In October, Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei publicly blamed the protests on the United States and Israel.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
