India and China Are Destined to Clash—America Should Help

India and China Are Destined to Clash—America Should Help
Indian army soldiers stand on a snow-covered road near Zojila mountain pass that connects Srinagar to the union territory of Ladakh, bordering China, on Feb. 28, 2021. Tauseef Mustafa/AFP via Getty Images
Alex Titus
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Recent reports show that companies are increasingly leaving China and relocating to India as Chinese leader Xi Jinping continues his societal-wide crackdown.

The battle over supply chains and production is just one of many domains where great power competition between India and China is heating up. Indian and Chinese tensions can only be expected to escalate as New Delhi continues to rise and Beijing feels increasingly threatened by its neighbor to the south.

India has a dangerous road ahead and will need friends and partners to help deter Chinese military and economic aggression. Washington is New Delhi’s ideal primary partner in this endeavor, and a closer relationship between both countries substantially benefits the United States. American policymakers should work to further integrate and develop security and economic ties with India as both countries focus on deterring an increasingly bellicose Beijing.

There’s no question India is a rising great power. India’s economy continues to grow rapidly and will likely move from the fifth-largest GDP to the third position by 2027. Rates of extreme poverty in the country have plummeted, and the mortality rate for mothers giving birth has dropped significantly—two key development measures. Affluent Indians are expected to make up 100 million of the population by 2027.
The country’s sheer size will also make it a force to be reckoned with. India is currently the most populous country in the world, standing at 1.4 billion, and is expected to continue growing. China’s population is expected to shrink dramatically from 1.4 billion to 525 million by 2100 due to poor policy decisions. These changes in demography will continue to shift the power balance toward India as the century progresses.
Due to these factors, India and China may be headed for the “Thucydides Trap.” Beijing will become more hostile to its larger neighbor as the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) tries to manage the politics and narrative around its own decline. India and China are also no strangers to trading barbs, having fought multiple wars and a recent border clash in 2020 over disputed territory in the Himalayas, which killed 20 Indian servicemen and escalated hostilities between both nations.

Lawmakers and policymakers in New Delhi have a clear-eyed view of the threat posed by the CCP. I participated as a Young Fellow at the 2024 Raisina Dialogue—India’s most important geopolitical conference—hosted by the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi. The message from the conference was clear: China is the No. 1 threat. Many young Indians told me that they believed China would try to stop their rise and that Beijing viewed their democratic political system as an existential threat.

But while India faces this threat, why should Americans care, and how can we help advance the U.S.–India relationship?

For starters, stronger U.S.–India ties make sense from a shared values perspective. India is the world’s largest democracy and shares a commitment to liberalism and other Western values, such as freedom of speech and religion. Not to mention that China’s communist system presents a moral and political challenge to both of our freedom-based systems.

Moreover, India and the United States have shared economic interests. One example is in the realm of de-risking critical supply chains. Washington and its allies are rushing to move supply chains out of China, and India makes sense as a relocation hub for industries such as semiconductors and other electronics. Rising incomes in India will also open new export markets for U.S. businesses and opportunities for investors looking to move capital out of China.

Enhancing India’s security posture is also a vital American interest. New Delhi will benefit greatly from the sale of American weapons and munitions as it seeks to beef up its security posture in the Himalayas and a general upgrade of its armed forces. A stronger Indian military will also force China to reposition more troops and equipment to its southern border rather than have these forces available for a potential conflict with the United States over Taiwan.

American policymakers must recognize these areas of constructive engagement with New Delhi and work to deepen the U.S.–India relationship. Communist China will continue to see a rising India as a threat to its security and economic interests and is destined to become more hostile. India will need America’s help, and we’d be wise to heed its serious interest in our friendship and partnership.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
Alex Titus
Alex Titus
contributor
Alex Titus is a policy adviser and fellow at America First Policies, a nonprofit organization supporting policy initiatives that will put America first.
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