Commentary
Over 200 million rounds of ammo for small arms and over 4 million rounds of ammunition for heavy weapons are just a couple of the eyepopping numbers released on May 3 by the Department of Defense’s breakdown of the $36.4 billion in security assistance the United States has given to Ukraine since the Feb. 24, 2022, invasion by Russia (pdf).
The sheer number of vehicles, rockets, missiles, tanks, artillery rounds, and armored fighting vehicles documented in the press release is overwhelming. But given the much-touted success that Ukraine has had in destroying Russian tanks, the 70,000-plus anti-tank systems are of particular interest.
The impact of putting tens of thousands of man-portable anti-tank weapons into the hands of Ukrainian soldiers cannot be overemphasized. While the Russians are far from the bumbling, drunk fools that much of Western media has been trying to make them out to be, there’s little doubt they initially underestimated how well-trained, well-equipped, and highly motivated the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) would be. And the Russian commanders clearly didn’t factor in just how devastating ubiquitous man-portable anti-tank weapons would be.
While the number of tanks that Russia has lost in total isn’t known for certain, the Oryx intelligence blog has been painstakingly sifting through this supplied data to come up with estimates of destroyed, captured tanks, etc. Oryx estimates that Russia has lost 1,927 tanks, with over 50 percent of the losses occurring in the first 50 days of the war. And other reporting would suggest that the majority of these losses have been due to the omnipresent portable anti-tank weapons with which the United States and NATO have deluged Ukraine. It should also be noted that during the same period Ukraine has lost 494 tanks.
However, the number of tanks being lost by both Ukraine and Russia have gone from a torrent to a trickle as both sides have adopted different tactics.
Of the numerous different portable anti-tank systems that the unenviable Russian tankers have faced, and will continue to face, three in particular stand out: the BGM-71 tube-launched, optically tracked, wire-guided (TOW) system, the Javelin, and the Next-generation Light Anti-tank Weapon (NLAW).
The TOW was first introduced in 1970 and is currently used by over 40 countries. It can be used to directly strike tanks, or the new version of its missile can do a top-down attack, firing two explosively formed projectiles into a tank’s relatively weak top armor. The United States has transferred at least 1,500 man-portable TOW anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) systems to Ukraine.
Next up is the FGM-148 Javelin ATGM, of which over 10,000 have been pledged and over 5,500 delivered to Ukraine. Due to the quantities supplied, and its effectiveness, the Javelin is likely the biggest thorn in Russia’s side when it comes to man-portable ATGMs. Indeed, the Javelin’s modus operandi of diving steeply at the tank’s relatively weak top armor is likely the main reason that some Russian tanks have been seen using improvised slat armor over the top of their turrets.
The final ATGM we will look at is Sweden’s RB-57 NLAW. As is the case with the Javelin, the NLAW can be fired in a direct attack mode or in top-down mode. In the top-down mode, it uses an explosively formed penetrator similar to that used by the BGM-71 TOW to breech a tank’s weak top armor. While highly effective, its 870-yard maximum range is much shorter than the TOW’s 5,000 yards and the Javelin’s 2,800 yards. To date, some 5,000 NLAWs have reportedly been provided to Ukraine.
Given that the first casualty of war is the truth, determining with certainty just how many Russian tanks have been destroyed by these lethal man-portable ATGMs isn’t possible. However, a March 2, 2022, article cites an unnamed U.S. Special Operations official claiming that 280 Russian tanks were destroyed by just 300 Javelin missiles, a 93 percent kill rate, in only one week of fighting. NLAWs have also reportedly been used to great effect, with a July 2022 article claiming 30 to 40 percent of Russian tank losses being due to the NLAW. And while the BGM-71 TOW didn’t arrive in large numbers until after August 2022, it has already had an impact.
In the first few months of the invasion, Russia was losing tanks at an unsustainable rate as Ukrainian soldiers could seemingly appear from anywhere, striking the poorly supported tanks with lethal ATGMs. And it could be argued that it was the pervasiveness of these ATGMs, along with Ukraine’s ability to effectively use massed artillery fires, that thwarted Russia’s attempt to quickly capture Ukraine’s capital.
However, recent months have seen tank losses decline precipitously on both sides, as Russia has turned the war into one in which its artillery is dominating. This doesn’t mean tanks won’t be used, but it does mean when they are used, they will need to be heavily supported by troops and artillery who will be tasked to suppress and destroy ground troops equipped with man-portable ATGMs.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
