Before discussing the probable valid reason, a little background is helpful to understand the context.
Third Taiwan Strait Crisis
In 1995, then-Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui was invited to deliver a speech on Taiwan’s democratization experience at Cornell University, his alma mater. Initially, the Department of State (DOS) refused to give Lee a visa to visit, and he was forced to spend a night on his plane at a stopover in Hawaii.The House of Representatives and the Senate then forced the DOS to allow Lee to visit Cornell and deliver his speech on June 9-10, 1995.
Furious that the DOS had allowed Lee into the United States, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) ordered the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to launch missiles and conduct live-fire drills in the summer and amphibious assault exercises in the fall of 1995. In response, then-President Bill Clinton ordered two carrier naval battle groups and other ships to Taiwan’s waters as a demonstration of force in December 1995.
The Propaganda and Media War
During the propaganda war, the CCP argued that Ukraine is not Taiwan and no one should make such comparisons.Why?
Because the CCP wants the world not to have sympathy for a free and democratic Taiwan.
CCP Media and Psychological Warfare
As Pelosi planned to arrive, the CCP propaganda and military machine went into high gear. Beijing declared warnings with phrases like “immediate cancellation” and “China will need to respond with unprecedented stern measures.”From the U.S. public perspective, such warnings are reminiscent of the childhood proverb, “sticks and stones may break my bones, but words will never hurt me.”
With the world community energized about Ukraine, the United States could easily turn the media and psychological warfare against the CCP by using the world’s sympathy for Ukraine toward Taiwan.
But the United States did not.
Chinese State Media Threatened an Air Blockade
Little noticed in the Western press was the Chinese language version of an April 7 article written by Hu Xijin, the former editor-in-chief of state-run tabloid Global Times.He wrote that Pelosi’s planned trip “will be an extremely serious incident, and it will be the most serious provocation by Washington to China on the Taiwan issue since then-Taiwan ‘President’ Lee Teng-hui visited the United States [in 1995].”
Hu provided two stern options for the CCP to counter Pelosi’s visit.
First, establish an air blockade (a no-fly zone) over Taiwan on the day that Pelosi arrives.
Second, if Pelosi’s aircraft does land on Taiwan, he recommended to fly PLA military aircraft over the island’s airspace. “If the Taiwan military opens fire on our fighter jets, the PLA should shoot down the aircraft, or carry out destructive strikes on the Taiwan military base where the missiles were launched,” Hu wrote.
Hardly anyone noticed his recommended threat to expand ramifications if Pelosi’s visit occurs: “China could take other retaliatory measures, including arms sales to Russia and a massive increase in Russian oil and gas purchases. China must resolutely retaliate against the actions of the U.S. and let them know that China is not to be messed with.”
Recommended Initial Pelosi Reaction
In response to the CCP military threat to her visit, Pelosi should promise her support for a large U.S. military aid package to Taiwan—at least the value of the aid the United States provided Ukraine thus far ($1.7 billion) or ideally the amount the United States provides Israel ($3.8 billion per year from 2019 to 2028) to maintain its qualitative military edge (QME).What Weapons to Provide Taiwan to Deter the CCP?
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine suggests that defensive weapon systems for Taiwan should include the following weapon systems along with training and maintenance support: anti-air (Stinger, PATRIOT), anti-armor (Javelin), anti-ship (Harpoon), and anti-missile (THAAD, AEGIS, more PATRIOT, and, perhaps, even one of the two U.S. purchased Iron Dome batteries).
Is the US Going ‘All In’ to Support Taiwan?
In summary, Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan could have been a great benefit to show support for this vibrant democratic nation.As a result of Chinese state media threats to her visit and her cancellation, one hopes that Pelosi, Congress, the Biden administration, and the American people will exceed expectations by helping Taiwan deter the CCP from invading this example of a Chinese-speaking fully democratic country, and gift Taiwan at least $2.5 billion.
One also hopes Pelosi’s cancelled visit doesn’t repeat the world’s complacency when the CCP crushed democratic Hong Kong.