The new study, by IHME, estimates that the coronavirus killed 6.9 million. Not including economic damages from the lockdown, suffering to survivors, costs borne by society from hospitalization and new vaccines, future damages from the ongoing growth of the pandemic, or criminal penalties, China is already responsible for approximately $19 trillion in damages, according to my calculations.
Deaths in the United States are estimated at nearly 900,000 rather than the 570,000 of prior estimates, according to the IHME study. India has an even worse underestimate, with actual deaths calculated at three times the official numbers. Russian deaths are now estimated at 593,000 rather than the official tally of 109,000. The Institute explained that test quality inconsistency and under-reporting of care facility deaths explain prior undercounts.
The new mortality figures were calculated by subtracting pre-COVID death trends from the actual death trends during the pandemic. The University of Washington adjusted the estimate for indirect changes from the pandemic, for example higher deaths from fear of hospitals during the pandemic, and lower deaths from reduced vehicular traffic.
The old underestimates tend to let China off the hook and ease government claims that they did well in limiting the effects of COVID. But China must not escape.
China expert Gordon Chang wrote in an email that the country “intentionally spread COVID-19 beyond its borders,” and called it a form of “mass murder.” He provided three major reasons for this conclusion.
First, “the regime tried to convince the world that COVID-19 was not human-to-human transmissible when it knew that it was.”
Second, after Beijing admitted the disease’s transmissibility, “it then attempted to convince the world that the disease would not lead to many infections and deaths when it knew that it already had, thereby misleading public health officials into not taking precautions they otherwise would have adopted.”
And third, “China pressured [other countries] to not impose travel restrictions and quarantines when it was locking down its own country.”
According to Chang, “Beijing simultaneously arguing that countries should not ban Chinese travelers while maintaining lockdowns unmistakably suggests an intent to spread the disease beyond China’s borders.” He argues that China “saw how COVID-19 had crippled China. If they wanted to cripple other societies with the virus, they would have done what they in fact did …. They maliciously spread the virus to the world.”
According to Chang’s source, China’s National Health Commission ordered every lab, hospital, and other research facility in China to destroy samples of the coronavirus on Jan. 3. The intention could have been to destroy evidence. Chang said the destruction of samples was contrary to best practices during an epidemic. “The universal practice is to keep samples, especially during the early stages of an epidemic when they are needed for contact tracing and vaccine development.”
The title of Professor Kraska’s March article concluded that claims against China for COVID-19 “could be in the trillions.” He wrote in an email that, “In the law deaths are calculated as an economic cost of the deceased’s expected earnings, potential inheritance and job benefits, and goods and services that they would have produced in their lifetime, plus the costs of their medical support and funeral expenses. In general, these costs have been in the $2.5-3.0 million range for a single person. These costs could (and should) be added to a claim against China for wrongful death, in my view.”
Multiplying 6.9 million COVID-19 deaths by $2.75 million per person indicates that China should compensate families for $19 trillion in wrongful death damages from COVID. This does not include future damages from the ongoing pandemic, suffering by survivors, societal economic loss from lockdowns, or criminal penalties for what Mr. Chang calls “mass murder.” Total additional damages could also be in the trillions.
If our own governments fail to aggressively prosecute China for its COVID-19 crimes, they are derelict in their most sacred duty to protect the citizenry.
