China’s Space Weapons Threaten US Military Superiority

A Long March-2C rocket, carrying the Einstein Probe satellite, lifts off from the Xichang Satellite Launch Center in Xichang, in southwestern China's Sichuan Province, on Jan. 9, 2024. STR/AFP via Getty Images

Commentary

Supremacy in space-based surveillance and the ability to protect that capability will be a key determinant in any future conflict between the United States and China. Currently, the Chinese regime looks like it is on a trajectory to win this crucial battle for supremacy.

While the regime claims that it opposes the militarization of space, it is developing capabilities that will allow it to destroy or disable U.S. satellites. In mid-2021, an interview with a People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Northern Theater engineer revealed that the PLA has three Earth-to-space-capable missiles—the DN-1, DN-2, and DN-3—that can reach low, medium, and high orbits carrying anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons.

These kinds of tests and reports, coupled with other more recent actions, show the Chinese regime’s commitment to developing capabilities that will allow it to destroy or disable U.S. military and commercial satellites.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been accelerating its efforts to develop ASAT weapons for years. On Jan. 11, 2007, the CCP used a kinetic kill weapon delivered by a ballistic missile to destroy an aging 2,000-pound Chinese Feng Yun 1C polar weather satellite orbiting 540 miles above Earth. The attack created a large debris field that continues to endanger other satellites today.

Along with the ability to destroy satellites using ground-launched kinetic kill weapons, the CCP has been developing electronic warfare capabilities that can disrupt or disable satellites. What’s more, it has launched “killer satellites” that can maneuver their way next to other satellites to monitor and/or kill them. These capabilities and others are detailed in a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The Chinese regime’s aggressive development of ASAT capabilities, coupled with the Biden administration’s unilateral commitment not to test direct ascent ASAT weapons, means that China is not only closing the gap with the United States, but will also soon surpass the United States when it comes to ASAT capabilities.

This raises a question: Given Beijing’s many statements opposing the militarization of space, would the Chinese regime use these weapons if war broke out over Taiwan? While no one knows for sure, it is hard to imagine that Beijing would not use any means at its disposal to win a war over control of Taiwan.

But regardless of whether or not China intends merely to deter the United States from using its ASAT weapons, the Chinese regime  has been rapidly building up other satellite capabilities that it will certainly use in any conflict. Indeed, China launched its fourth Jielong-3 solid rocket from a sea platform on Sept. 24, adding eight more remote sensing satellites into sun-synchronous orbit. It is the 40th launch of 2024, and puts the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) on pace to surpass the record-setting 67 launches it achieved in 2023. Given China’s dual-use policy of producing satellites that can be used for both civilian and military purposes, the vast majority likely have military uses.

In line with this, on May 2, 2024, U.S. Space Forces Maj. Gen. Greg Gagnon, deputy chief of space operations for intelligence, warned that China is deploying a massive network of remote sensing satellites that will be used to help target U.S. forces if they move to defend Taiwan. He said that more than 50 percent of the 400 satellites deployed by China over the past two years were designed to track things on Earth. And while the remaining satellites may not specifically track targets on the ground, that does not mean they cannot be used for military applications, such as communication relays or electronic intelligence.

Further indicating its commitment to surpassing the United States, the Chinese regime announced in October 2023 that it will deploy 300 of its highly capable Jilin-1 satellites by the end of 2025 instead of the planned 138. But it is not just about numbers, as China’s satellites have rapidly advanced in power and sophistication.

In April 2023, Chinese researchers claimed in a paper published in China that they had satellites that could execute real-time precise tracking of U.S. Naval assets.

These researchers claimed that one of their satellites (not identified by model) automatically spotted and identified the USS Truman, a Nimitz-class carrier. The satellite then tracked the Truman and its seven escort vessels while continuously updating Beijing with precise real-time coordinates of the Truman’s location.

If China truly has gained the ability to track and relay information in near real-time to its anti-ship ballistic missile forces, then the regime has radically increased the scope and power of its “kill chain,” making it very risky for U.S. Naval forces to operate anywhere near Taiwan.

According to the Chinese researchers, the satellite’s ability to create actionable data is due to its ability to use highly efficient artificial intelligence algorithms and specialized, dedicated AI hardware to process image data. These data can then be used to provide exact, near real-time targeting data that will allow China to guide one of its extremely powerful DF-21D or DF-26 ship-killing missiles into a maneuvering ship.

China is also on track to deploy 300 Jilin-1 satellites by 2025. Courtesy of AI upgrades, these small cheap satellites have demonstrated that they can follow and track a plane that many believe to be an F-22.

Collectively, these new capabilities mean that China can span vast oceans to automatically detect and identify ships and then provide real-time targeting of those ships to missile launch centers. This radically improves China’s ability to initiate and maintain the kind of “kill chain” necessary to successfully attack carriers or any other U.S. Navy vessels maneuvering at sea. China has already successfully demonstrated two of its hypersonic anti-ship ballistic missiles—the Mach 10 DF-21D and the Mach 18 DF-26B. This means that China can target U.S. carriers with the “carrier killer” hypersonic missiles long before they are in range to support Taiwan.

Finally, along with CASC satellites, China’s Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology company has embarked on its “Thousand Sails Constellation” program. Over the next six years, it is scheduled to put thousands of StarLink-like satellites into low-Earth orbit. These satellites, along with their commercial uses, will certainly provide military capabilities comparable to those of StarLink, which has been providing Ukraine with these capabilities.

Of course, there is still some uncertainty about China’s exact satellite and anti-satellite capabilities, but underestimating them would be foolish. Consequently, with the possibility of a conflict with China over Taiwan looming, our military planners are going to have to adjust to the fact that China, at a minimum, will use its extensive ASAT capabilities to protect its satellite’s ability to target the U.S. Navy’s ships, and could use them to take out our own surveillance and targeting capabilities. Consequently, options to counter China that U.S. military planners thought they could count on five years ago must be reevaluated.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.