A quick survey of China’s well-stocked pavilions at the International Defense Exhibition (IDEX) in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, from Feb. 20 to Feb. 24 makes clear that the regime in Beijing need only apply a fraction of its military and technical might to enable a Russian victory in Ukraine.
The Biden administration is fearful that this prospect is nigh. On Feb. 19, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that communist China is close to “crossing” the line and providing lethal aid to help Russia’s war with Ukraine.
In a Feb. 2 report, The Wall Street Journal, with the help of the C4ADS think tank, reviewed Russian customs records revealing that China has shipped to Russia parts for Mi-8/17 medium helicopters, parts for the radar for S-300 fourth-generation anti-aircraft missiles, and parts for the Sukhoi Su-35 fourth-plus-generation fighter jet.
China’s well of “sales returns” that Russia could access is much deeper: more than 1,000 of the anti-aircraft with some anti-missile capability Almaz-Antey fourth and four-plus generation S-300 and S-400 missiles that will deal handily with future transfers of U.S. F-16 fighters to Ukraine and about 300 workhorse Mi-8/17 helicopters that would revive Russian deep offensive operations.
But with an eye on Russia, China, and his upcoming reckoning in the U.S. House of Representatives, President Joe Biden carefully marshaled his Feb. 20 “surprise” visit to Kyiv to show U.S. support amid the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—with Russia on the verge of another massive offensive.
Biden said: “Ukraine stands. Democracy stands. The Americans stand with you, and the world stands with you.”
He also promised $500 million in new U.S. military aid in addition to $27 billion in American military aid since February 2022, bringing the total to $120 billion from U.S. allies and partners.
What does it mean if China “stands with Russia” with the same intensity?
A stark warning of China’s potential to arm Russia was on display at IDEX.
China produces and could immediately ship vast stocks of Russian caliber weapons, from 152 mm and 122 mm artillery shells and 125 mm and 100 mm tank rounds and tank-fired guided missiles, to 122 mm and 300 mm unguided and precision-guided artillery rockets.
Reflecting the IDEX show’s dominant theme of unmanned combat systems, Chinese arms concerns offered a plethora of unmanned aircraft, unmanned small helicopters, loitering munitions, and unmanned ground vehicles—all for combat missions.
These could help Russia revive its stalled offensive by enabling better precision for artillery and mortar strikes and reducing horrific Russian casualties that may exceed 200,000 troops.
Ground force weapons producer Norinco prominently displayed its VU-T10 30 mm cannon-armed unmanned “tank” that could provide a battlefield advantage without wasting more soldiers’ lives.
Just as important, Chinese companies such as Norinco and Poly can offer five different 50- to 10-kilowatt laser weapons that—combined with their radar, optical, and computer-controlled command systems—can slap down Ukraine’s dominant use of drones against Russia.
Chinese export model tanks such as the Norinco VT-4 are armed with 125 mm cannon-launched anti-tank missiles. Still, they’re also equipped with an Active Defense System that could take out Western anti-tank missiles such as the much-vaunted U.S. Javelin, which during the past year has crushed Russian armor in Ukraine.
Even though the Beijing regime feigned “opposition” to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, it was inevitable that China would become a supplier to Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s ambition to suborn Europe through a revival of the Warsaw Pact domination of the Soviet era.
A Feb. 24 Chinese “peace proposal” for Ukraine clearly favors Russia by allowing it to keep occupied Ukrainian territory and proposes a “ceasefire” and “demilitarized zone” that would favor future Russian offensives.
It’s possible that Russia and China could coordinate, with China waiting a year before starting massive military aid to better tip the balance of power against a near-exhausted Ukraine.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) requires a Russian “victory,” whatever that means, to ensure Moscow’s participation in its looming invasion of Taiwan, which both have been preparing for through many land, air, and sea military exercises.
Beijing must also bring about the defeat of the U.S. and NATO/partner coalition, not just to deter a similar coalition template that may spring into action to aid Taiwan but also to validate the CCP’s power to lead and protect its growing military network of largely authoritarian states centered in the growing Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) coalitions.
But by ensuring Russia’s “victory” over Ukraine, the CCP goes far to achieve another goal: establishing the perverse “moral imperative” for the CCP–Russia dictatorship complex to contain and diminish all other democracies.
If his leadership rallies America’s allies and helps produce an eventual Ukrainian victory, Biden’s surprise visit to Kyiv may be viewed as his “finest hour,” provided he’s willing to give heretofore denied weapons such as fourth-generation combat aircraft and short-range ballistic missiles that can attack deep Russian logistical and command nodes.
But if his visits and additional weapons give the CCP the excuse it seeks to go all-in for providing arms and munitions for Russia, Biden’s visit may be seen as the beginning of a new turn, a longer-term global conflict characterized by coordinated Chinese and Russian assaults on democracies, starting with a second major war over Taiwan.
To arrest such a turn, the Biden administration must start by building up U.S. nuclear weapons, as China and Russia are increasing their strategic and regional nuclear forces to coerce the United States from assisting its allies and partners.
Like Putin, the United States should “suspend” its adherence to former President Barack Obama’s 2010 New START strategic arms limitation treaty and replace more than 3,000 nuclear warheads removed from U.S. strategic missiles to comply with that treaty.
Biden must also order the crash production of new U.S. theater nuclear weapons for cruise and ballistic missiles to deter Russia and China from using their superior theater nuclear forces.
The alternative could entail the United States “fighting” two wars in 2023 and the Pentagon pressing for a revival of the draft.
