The U.S. proxy war with Russia over Ukraine is on the verge of getting costlier, maybe in more ways than one. Since the start of Russia’s invasion this past February, Washington has appropriated tens of billions of dollars to aid Kyiv, mostly for military training, advanced ordnance, and intelligence assets supporting Ukrainian operations.
The spigots are far from closing. President Biden has asked Congress for another $800 million, this time for advanced surface-to-air missiles. On top of this, Washington has moved 100,000 troops to defend NATO’s eastern frontier, and Congress wants to send more.Western arms, and not just Ukrainian resolve, have cost the Russians dearly in casualties and prestige, and every new military delivery risks a reprisal. By upping the ante, the Biden administration and its supporters are gambling that Russia either is too weak or too wary to fight back against the West.
But Moscow cannot afford to lose the war, either. By capitulating, Russia would be forced to accept what it feared all along: the loss of Ukraine to NATO and the European Union. Losing the war also would place them between a rock and a hard place, a choice on one hand of accepting Western terms to end sanctions or, on the other, possibly becoming China’s vassal. Right or wrong, the Russians are playing for high stakes, and we Americans are militarily and mentally unprepared for them to call our bet.
The same can be said of their most senior leaders. The Pentagon may boast of standing up a corps command post in Poland. But no American general in service today has maneuvered a heavy corps in the field, in training or otherwise.
Leaning on our technological edge is no substitute for training, as Russia’s shockingly poor performance demonstrated early on in their invasion of Ukraine. Whatever one thinks of Ivan, the Russians will not simply slink away. They will instead do their best to undercut U.S. advantages where they can; where they cannot, they will cede territory dearly, if history is a guide. This raises the specter of high casualties which, in terms of both troops and equipment, we may be hard-pressed to replace.
Appealing to patriotism to replace the patriots we’ve disposed of because they wouldn’t take their COVID shots is hypocrisy, while resuming a draft in a nation so deeply divided is fantasy.
Professional soldiers understand the risks in war, and they will make the best with the hands they are dealt, even when less than ideal. By comparison, the public is psychologically ill-equipped to fight a war. To most civilians, wars are something that happen far from home, and casualties are something endured by strangers. Waging a war on our front stoops and in our back gardens is inconceivable.
A war with Russia, however, is unlikely to remain contained in Eastern Europe. As each side seeks to increase their opponent’s pain, they will strike more deeply into the defensive zones resupplying the front lines. Western Europe, no longer the armed camp of 30 years ago, would feel the brunt, its populations and supply arteries relatively easy pickings for Russian deep attacks.
All of this, of course, says nothing about the potential for a second front should China make a move on Taiwan.
By any measure the United States remains formidable. But victory in war can be a near-run thing under the best of circumstances. There’s always a chance you might lose. And in a big war against an opponent with global reach, you just can’t decide to call it quits and go home, as we did in Afghanistan. You either fight until you win, or accept terms from your enemy.