Commentary
As I write this, relations between China and Japan are at their lowest point in 50 years. Fumio Kishida, the prime minister of Japan, recently accused China of aggressively infringing on Japan’s sovereignty and escalating tensions in the region. Now, as the two neighbors vie for influence in East Asia and beyond, some commentators fear that war between China and Japan is a distinct possibility.
It is now 50 years since China and Japan normalized diplomatic ties. It’s rather unfortunate, then, that anti-Japanese hatred appears to be on the rise in China. According to a poll conducted by a Japanese think tank and a Chinese publisher, some 66 percent of Chinese citizens have a bad impression of the Japanese, and 90 percent of Japanese hold an unfavorable view of China.
For years, Tokyo and Beijing have clashed over the Japanese-controlled, Chinese-claimed Senkaku Islands (known as the Diaoyu islands in China). Although Japan has controlled the uninhabited islands since 1895, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is actively challenging Japanese control. Why? Because of the potentially lucrative gas reserves surrounding the islands. In the final week of November, a number of Chinese coast guard ships, including one vessel equipped with a 76-mm gun, were spotted in close proximity to the uninhabited islands.
At the same time, China is conducting military exercises in waters overlapping Japan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), an area in which Japan, a sovereign state, has jurisdiction over its resources.
China's aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, sails with other ships during a "live combat drill" in the East China Sea on April 23, 2018. A show of force by Beijing's burgeoning navy in disputed waters that have riled neighbors. AFP via Getty Images
Rising Tensions
Rather worryingly, in China, the mood has soured to a point where even the smallest signs of Japanese culture are attacked. In August, a young woman was, according to credible reports, arrested, detained for hours, and accused of causing trouble. Her crime? Donning a Japanese kimono and taking photos in the streets of Suzhou, a city west of Shanghai.Three days after police officers targeted the young woman, Akiba Takeo, the head of Japan’s National Security Secretariat, flew to China to meet with Yang Jiechi, the CCP’s senior foreign affairs adviser. The pair discussed the CCP’s intimidation of Taiwan and China’s military exercises in Japan’s EEZ. Discussions, by all accounts, were tense. As Voice of America reported, Yang told Takeo that “the Taiwan question bears on the political foundation of China-Japan relations and the basic trust and good faith between the two countries.” In other words, Japan ought to subscribe to the “one-China” principle. To make his point crystal clear, Yang added, “Japan should ... shape up a right perception of China, pursue a positive, pragmatic and rational China policy, and uphold the right direction of peaceful development.”
Unlike many other countries, Japan does not recognize the CCP’s claim of “ownership” over Taiwan. Shinzo Abe, Japan’s longest-serving prime minister who was assassinated in July, played a pivotal role in strengthening ties between Taipei and Tokyo. As the Council of Foreign Relations (CFR) previously noted, before Abe became prime minister, “Japanese officials were deeply uncomfortable talking about a potential Chinese use of force against Taiwan, the implications of such a move for Japanese security, and how Japan should respond to such a scenario.” Abe, however, recognized the threat emanating from Beijing. He set about reorienting Japanese policy toward the island. Moreover, he began “publicly emphasizing shared values between Japan and Taiwan,” referring to the Taiwanese government as an “important partner” and a “precious friend.”
Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen (center) and Taiwanese officials pose for photos with a Japanese delegation at the presidential office in Taipei, Taiwan, on July 28, 2022. Taiwan Presidential Office via AP
Abe is gone, but his work lives on. The people of Taiwan have a genuine fondness for the Japanese. A poll conducted by a research agency commissioned by Tokyo’s de facto embassy in Taipei found that 60 percent of Taiwanese now view Japan as their favorite foreign country, with 70 percent of respondents, a record high, viewing Taiwan-Japan relations in a favorable light. More than three-quarters of Taiwanese say they have an affinity with Japan.
The close bond between Taiwan and Japan could explain the anti-Japanese sentiments. Another close bond, the one between Tokyo and Washington, is also angering Beijing. In the eyes of the CCP, a friend of the United States is, by default, an enemy of communist China. This fact is not lost on Japan and the United States, two countries that recognize the danger posed by the despots in Beijing.
Japan is a member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD), a strategic initiative that Abe initially introduced in 2007. Other members include Australia, India, and the United States. In 2007, the Quad was hamstrung when Kevin Rudd, then-prime minister of Australia, became nervous about growing tensions between the United States and China. The QSD was put on ice until 2017, when Abe, then-Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and then-U.S. President Donald Trump decided to resurrect the alliance. In the five years since the group reunited, much of the dialogue has centered around China. More specifically, China’s activities in the Indo-Pacific region.
It seems Japan is firmly committed to countering the threat from the Chinese regime. But the Japanese can’t do it alone. The QSD must remain strong, especially now that the emerging China-Russia-Iran axis is desperately attempting to create a new world order. As this axis grows in power, we should expect many more “crimes and misfortunes” to occur.
In the short term, a war between the East Asian nations is unlikely. However, if relations continue to deteriorate, the prospect of future warfare shouldn’t be ruled out.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
