What will the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) do now that President Donald Trump has slapped 145 percent tariffs on them?
Maybe so.
That’s what we would do if we were Xi Jinping.
But don’t expect Xi to respond the way we would.
The CCP leader will let his own people absorb any amount of hardship. And he’s been telling them for years to get ready to “eat bitterness.”
Xi has also been sanctions-proofing the Chinese economy for years. He’s not there yet, but he’s not helpless either.
China has banned certain rare earth mineral exports, ordered Chinese companies not to buy Boeing aircraft, and imposed 125 percent tariffs on U.S. imports.
And it has enlisted American proxies—of whom there’s no shortage—to make the case that the republic will collapse if Wal-Mart’s everyday low prices go up.
Xi will also use the American trade pressure to rally the public.
He can’t be seen caving in to the foreigners. If he does, his many domestic enemies might remove him, quite literally.
And, even more fundamentally, the CCP is in a battle to the death with the free world. The way the Party sees things, only one of the two can survive—freedom is an existential threat to communism.
So perhaps Xi thinks starting a shooting war is a reasonable option?
He would have the advantage of surprise.
The Americans don’t think he will (or don’t want to entertain the possibility).
It doesn’t need to be against the United States, with all that involves, but maybe Taiwan or the Philippines?
This would give the United States and everyone else a massive jolt.
A trade war and a potential nuclear war are two different things.
There will be no end to people blaming Trump, especially as Xi would claim that Americans pushed him into it.
Recall how many people fretted after 9/11 that the United States somehow provoked Osama bin Laden into attacking.
“Why do they hate us?”
It will be even easier when China (and Donald Trump) are involved. Such is the so-called Trump Derangement Syndrome.
But are the tariffs on the People’s Republic of China (PRC), as high as they are, enough to make war look like a good move for Xi?
It’s maybe not like the 1941 oil and financial embargoes on Imperial Japan, but in its own way, it’s bad enough for the CCP, especially if other major and minor countries resolve matters with the United States or won’t absorb increased Chinese exports that will steamroll their own manufacturers.
The Chinese can withstand punishment, but China’s Ponzi scheme economy depends on exports to earn hard currency and on imports of American and Western technology.
And Xi would prefer to keep people employed. China is still a place where 600 million people live on less than $5 a day. And many others live on less.
It’s a volatile place.
And maybe Trump has more than tariffs and readjusting the trade imbalance in mind. Perhaps this is building to a substantial decoupling from the Chinese market, thus creating free world and “unfree world” trading blocs.
The United States has never pressured China like this in the 53 years since President Richard Nixon’s visit.
There has been a lot of talk, but never much real pressure—except during Trump 1.0—but that was only for a couple of years and never went for the jugular.
Xi might now count on the Americans losing interest and being placated and strung along, with the promise of talks and easing up.
But what if the Americans learned their lesson and realized that the PRC is already at war with the United States? The United States didn’t start this war, but for the first time, it looks like it’s getting ready to fight.
Maybe Xi will figure now’s the time to shoot, or “go kinetic” in today’s jargon.
A shooting war may not be how we would respond to tariffs.
But we’re not Xi Jinping.
