North Korea Could Attack South Korea if China Invades Taiwan: Report

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits a hall displaying what appear to be various types of warheads designed to be mounted on missiles or rocket launchers in undisclosed location in North Korea on March 27, 2023. Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP

North Korea could use a Chinese communist invasion of Taiwan as a distraction to begin its own assault on South Korea, according to a new report.

The United States will need to help South Korea better integrate into bilateral and minilateral agreements to deter such a threat, according to a report published on March 15 by The Center for a New American Security think tank.

“Washington has declared China to be the only country with both the intent to reshape the regional and global order and the power across every dimension to do it,” the report reads.

“In South Korea ... the policy debate about China is likewise growing in importance and urgency, and potentially shifting away from legacy paradigms that prioritized partnership and economic engagement with Beijing and downplayed geopolitical differences.”

Central to this break with longstanding policy is South Korea’s fear of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) aggression toward Taiwan and other powers in the Indo-Pacific, which South Korea sees as a increasingly destabilizing force, the report says.

If the CCP were to invade Taiwan and draw the United States and all its resources into the conflict, the report states, North Korea could capitalize on the United States’ distraction and attack South Korea.

“China’s military assertiveness elsewhere in Asia, particularly mounting pressure on Taiwan, also drives [South Korean] unease about Beijing’s ambitions to revise the regional order,” the report reads.

“Seoul worries that the United States responding to military aggression from China against Taiwan could occupy U.S. resources and attention, prompting North Korea to use that opportunity to attack South Korea.”

‘Multilateral Institutions’

The report found that, while “Beijing enabling North Korea” is an immense challenge for the United States and South Korea, there was also much opportunity to increase cooperation to improve regional security.

“The threat from North Korea continues to be severe ... but in general, we wanted to look with a broader lens,” report co-author Jacob Stokes said on April 4.

“This was important given that the United States now considers China the pacing challenge.”

To that end, Stokes highlighted that the report encourages that the United States assist the further integration of South Korea with bilateral and unilateral cooperation efforts, particularly in the defense space.

“Washington should support Seoul’s ambitions to work more closely with major democracies, including as an informal aligned country or part of ‘plus’ formats for the G-7, NATO, and the Quad,” the report reads.

“In addition, Washington and Seoul should look for opportunities to work together in multilateral institutions toward specific ends, especially where traditional processes are blocked.”