New Study Reveals Which Countries Most Influenced by China

(From left) Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro, South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa, and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi pose for a family picture during the 11th BRICS Summit in Brasilia, Brazil, on Nov. 14, 2019. Sergio Lima/AFP via Getty Images

A new study measuring China’s influence around the world has ranked Pakistan as the country most under the sway of the communist regime.

Two Southeast Asian countries, Cambodia and Singapore, were ranked respectively as second and third followed by Thailand in fourth position, according to the China Index database released on Dec. 8.

The China Index, an initiative of Doublethink Lab, a Taiwan-based research organization, measured Beijing’s influence across 82 countries globally.

Among Central Asian countries, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the two that share borders with China’s Xinjiang region are the most exposed to China. They are pegged at the eighth and ninth position on the index, respectively.

Australia, a nation that had been in the midst of a trade war with China is placed twelfth on the list.

With regards to European countries, Germany is the highest-ranked nation at position 19, while the United States leads North America, at 21.

Influence Assessment Method

The study examined countries’ ties to Beijing based on nine categories, including higher education, domestic politics, economic ties, foreign policy, military cooperation, technology, and cultural links.

According to Min Hsuan-Wu, the co-founder and CEO of Doublethink Labs, the study mainly aims at “raising awareness around the world about the different aspects of Chinese influence and what that can actually look like.”

Wu emphasized that the method will aid in understanding the regime’s influence methods, particularly in the areas of commerce and economics.

“We’ve taken a much broader and nuanced look at what influence can be, which can tell us more about what Beijing is actually doing and the different ways it can apply pressure,” Wu told Radio Free Europe.

In Wu’s opinion, there was no common method by which the Chinese regime builds its sway over nations.

“There’s no one clear pattern for how China influences a country, but from the data we compiled, the economy isn’t the determinative one,” he added. “You can be economically independent but be tied in other ways, like with the military or a large Chinese diaspora that can be more influential.”

Globally, China’s influence is assessed to be most prominent in the domains of technology, foreign policy, and domestic politics, and weakest in those of military and society, the study found.

According to Wu, there is also no clear “playbook” for Chinese influence, and that it can be difficult to determine exactly how one country is more influenced than another. He added that new data demonstrates that Chinese authorities frequently focus on a few low-barrier-to-entry countries within a region before expanding to other countries as opportunities arise.

Meanwhile, Puma Shen, chairperson of Doublethink Lab, told VOA this research reveals to the world how China approaches these countries.

“By comparing all these rankings and comparing all the different strategies, all these countries could learn [from] each other, like how to counter Chinese influence operations,” he said.

The group also plans to expand its study scope in the future, particularly to Africa, which has recently seen a rise in Chinese influence, and to Russia, which in February announced a “no limits” cooperation with Beijing.

Pakistan-China ties

For observers, it was no surprise to find Pakistan sitting atop the list of nations most heavily influenced by the Chinese regime.

The report found that technology, foreign policy, and the military are the three areas where China has the most influence on Pakistan.

The two neighboring countries launched the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in 2015 as part of a larger China’s “Belt and Road” initiative.

Under this strategy, China started to invest in Pakistan by constructing roads, railways, telecommunications networks, and developing weapons.

In May 2017, Pakistan and China signed a $50 billion agreement that included full funding for the Diamer Basha dam and four other dams in the Indus River Cascade. Under the CPEC, the construction of roads connecting Xinjiang in western China and Pakistan’s port city of Gwadar was promoted. In December 2017, Pakistan also agreed to accelerate the construction of nine industrial parks as part of the CPEC.

In January 2018, Pakistan’s central bank allowed the Chinese yuan to be used for bilateral trade and investment activities, replacing the U.S. dollar for transactions in CPEC projects.

These extensive bilateral relations with the communist regime have pushed Pakistan into a debt trap, according to some observers. In July 2018, the State Bank of Pakistan borrowed $2 billion from China. Chinese loans to Pakistan stood at $6.5 billion in the fiscal year of 2018.

As of now, Pakistan has an external debt of over $130 billion, $30 billion of which is owed to China.

The China-Pakistan military and strategic relationship have continued to deepen over time.

In February 2018, the Pakistan Air Force inaugurated a new JF-17 (a combat aircraft developed jointly by Pakistan and China) fighter squadron in Quetta, Balochistan province.

In June 2018, the Pakistan Navy confirmed its contract to acquire two Type 054A frigates from China.

A further indication of the two militaries’ expanding relationship is the increase in China-Pakistan military drills.

In July, the two countries conducted a joint naval drill off Shanghai, with the participation of a China-built warship from Pakistan.

Many Pakistanis may be surprised to see their country ranking so highly, according to veteran journalist Shahzeb Jillani, who assisted in compiling research on Pakistan for the database. However, Jillani hopes the results will spark more discussion and consideration about Islamabad’s growing ties with Beijing.

“One can only hope that this will encourage Pakistanis to debate the pros and cons of the relationship and what it could mean for the future,” he said, according to Radio Free Europe.

Yang Ning contributed to this report.