Lawmakers’ Wargame Shows ‘Catastrophic’ Results in US–China Conflict

Lawmakers in a new House select committee on China (L-R) Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.), Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), committee Chairman Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.), and Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-Fla.) gather for a tabletop wargame exercise in the House Ways and Means Committee room in Washington on April 19, 2023. Ellen Knickmeyer/AP Photo

Lawmakers tasked with overseeing the United States’ strategic competition with China’s communist regime have conducted a wargame simulating a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and the U.S. response.

The House Select Committee on Strategic Competition with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) participated in the wargame, hosted by the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) think tank on April 19.

“We’re going to explore what happens in the very grim scenario in which deterrence fails in the Indo-Pacific,” Select Committee Chair Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) said according to prepared remarks.

“This is not a possibility we wish to contemplate, but one we must.”

‘Sobering Lessons’

The wargame sought to examine the potential course of events that could take place should the CCP invade Taiwan in 2027, with the Select Committee members playing for the United States and CNAS experts playing for China.

Over two and a half hours, the wargame simulated high-level strategic and operational maneuvers from both sides, including diplomatic, economic, and military actions in which the U.S. side sought to counter the CCP invasion.

The game was ultimately cut short because of time constraints, but its conclusions nevertheless presented the Select Committee with a sobering reality: Resupplying Taiwan with arms and other critical supplies after a CCP blockade had been imposed was not possible.

Likewise, without additional basing options with regional allies, the U.S. side risked immense casualties and its stockpiles of long-range missiles being depleted in short order.

Therefore, Gallagher said that the only solution was to arm Taiwan “to the teeth” now, or allow for CCP conquest later.

“We recognize the paradox of deterrence: that to achieve peace, sometimes you must prepare for conflict,” Gallagher said.

“I know the members of this committee will dig into the lessons we can learn from what may be some sobering outcomes of this game.”

China-US War ‘Catastrophic for Humanity’

Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), who also participated in the wargame, said that the experiment allowed the Select Committee to come to better grips with just how devastating a war between the world’s two largest economies would be.

“The overall lesson is that a war with China would be devastating and catastrophic for humanity,” Khanna said during an interview with NBC.

“There is no winner in this.”

Khanna noted that, in the wargame, the United States and China do not have open lines of communication, leading to increased escalations. This reflects the fact that the U.S. and China do not engage in virtually any of the protocols used by the United States and Soviet Union to manage crises during the first Cold War.

Likewise, for every consequence the United States was willing to impose on China in the game, the CCP regime had its own response prepared.

In response to being booted from the SWIFT international banking system, for example, the Chinese side cut the United States off from all Chinese battery technology, used in everything from iPhones to electric vehicles.

“They’re factoring in all of the economic consequences,” Khanna said, adding that the CNAS team did well in accurately portraying CCP decision-making.

CCP Preparing for War

The CCP claims that Taiwan is a part of China that must be united with its rule by any means necessary. CCP leader Xi Jinping has ordered the military wing of the party to achieve the capability to invade and conquer Taiwan by 2027.

That fact, Gallagher said, was reason enough for Congress to begin more seriously contending with the devastating scenario.

“Xi Jinping is not shy about sharing his intentions to take Taiwan—through political warfare if possible, through actual warfare if necessary,” Gallagher said.

“The People’s Liberation Army has been preparing for a Taiwan invasion for decades. The PLA rocket force and PLA Navy are purpose-built for cross-strait battle and for denying regional access to Taiwan’s friends.”

To that end, Gallagher said that the only way to deter a CCP invasion of the island was to arm Taiwan and take other, decisive actions to mitigate the CCP’s ability to wage war.

“We seek peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, and the continuation of a relationship that has enabled both Taiwan and China to grow their economies and integrate their societies with the world through high-tech commerce.”

“Deterring war is the only path to peace and stability, and it is incumbent upon elected officials to take decisive action to do so before it’s too late,” Gallagher said.