Is the Renewable Energy Transition to Wind and Solar Worth the Sacrifices?

Demonstrators block a street in Canary Wharf during a protest outside the Ofgem headquarters, following the energy price cap announcement, in London on Aug. 26, 2022. Maja Smiejkowska/Reuters

Even with recent reports of a temporary gas surplus, Europeans, nevertheless, face a harsh winter as analysts warn that a lack of gas could rock the economy in the coming months. Further, even if Europe pulls through this winter relatively unscathed, predictions for next winter paint a bleak future.

Warnings notwithstanding, on Oct. 24, the European Union Environment Council approved new climate mandates that reflect the objectives of the European Green Deal. Mandates are legally binding to EU members.

Further, the council addressed the phasing out of coal and the impact on energy resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Despite the current difficult political, energy, and economic situation, we cannot move away from the climate protection path set out in Glasgow, and the transition away from fossil fuels must continue,” the council stated.

A general view of the liquefied natural gas plant operated by Sakhalin Energy at Prigorodnoye on the Pacific island of Sakhalin, Russia, on July 15, 2021. Vladimir Soldatkin/Reuters

Jan Dusik, the Czech Republic’s deputy minister for climate protection, says that the EU needs to set an example for the rest of the world to follow.

“We need to send a clear signal: To collectively keep global warming below 1.5 degrees, we need to step up our efforts to reduce emissions, especially at the global level. The EU can lead the way, but we also need the world’s economies to get on board,” she said.

European citizens are preparing as winter approaches and a lack of energy looms. In the UK, residents are stocking up on candles, electric blankets, and energy-efficient slow cookers as they brace for winter.

In Switzerland, the president of the Federal Electricity Commission advised people to buy firewood and candles in anticipation of blackouts. The Swiss police said to prepare for riots in response. And in Italy, the government is looking to close offices on Fridays and turn off street lights.

As Europe braces for an uncertain winter, it begs the question: How much will a renewable energy transition benefit the environment, and will the duress be worth the effort?

That question is especially pertinent, given that the United States recently passed the Inflation Reduction Act, which put it on a legal path to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

GHG Emissions of Wind and Solar

A desire to reduce GHG emissions is driving the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy. To accomplish that, many countries are increasing their reliance on wind and solar. Germany, for example, aims to get 80 percent of its energy from wind and solar by 2030.

That transition to wind and solar is playing out across Europe. From March to September, wind and solar achieved a 24 percent share of the EU’s electricity, according to the energy consultancy firm Ember, with countries such as Poland, Spain, and Germany registering increased amounts.

Moreover, governments are transitioning to wind and solar precisely because wind and solar, when compared to coal or natural gas, generate far less GHG emissions, otherwise known as mean carbon dioxide equivalent per kilowatt-hour (CO2eq/kWh).

To examine total GHG emissions, the Renewable Energy Investment Strategies project compiled and compared several studies examining life cycle emissions for renewable and nonrenewable electricity-generation technologies. Life cycle emissions consider GHG production from all technology stages, not just point-of-use emissions.

The report found that when it comes to life cycle emissions, coal produced the highest CO2eq/kWh, natural gas came in second, photovoltaic power (solar panels) came in third, and onshore wind had the least. Nuclear energy, however, produced no GHG emissions during operation and, throughout its life cycle, produced approximately 12 g CO2eq/kWh, according to the World Nuclear Association.

Chart of emissions from different forms of energy. Katie Spence/Infogram

Still, the problem with wind and solar is that they aren’t reliable. The sun isn’t always shining, and the wind isn’t always blowing. Indeed, National Wind Watch reported that wind turbines typically function at about 15 percent to 35 percent capacity. Consequently, other forms of energy, such as natural gas—a fossil fuel—must, ironically, supplement them.

The working renewable energy solution for mitigating both wind and solar’s unreliability is to store the excess energy in utility-scale lithium-ion batteries and deliver it to the grid when needed. But that adds GHG emissions.

According to a report from Elsevier’s Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, conducting a life cycle analysis for energy storage systems is complex due to tracing material, energy, and emission streams. But existing metrics can give people an understanding of probable GHG emissions in utility-scale lithium-ion batteries.

For probable GHG emissions, Elsevier’s report found that, under optimal conditions, the maximum possible reduction in GHG emissions when utilizing battery storage and comparing emissions from diesel generators to wind and solar was 50 percent. Diesel’s emissions vary, but the average of the estimates was 477 g CO2eq/kWh.

Dividing that average by 50 percent added, in the best-case scenario, a rough average of 238.5 g CO2eq/kWh in GHG emissions from utility-scale batteries.

Chart of emissions from different forms of energy and including storage. Katie Spence/Infogram

As a result, when battery storage requirements were added, wind and solar’s GHG emission reduction was only considerable compared to coal. Compared to nuclear, they increased GHG emissions.

Increased Mineral Requirements

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), energy systems powered by “clean energy technologies” typically require more minerals to build than their fossil fuel-based counterparts.

“A typical electric car requires six times the mineral inputs of a conventional car, and an onshore wind plant requires nine times more mineral resources than a gas-fired plant,” the IEA reported. “Since 2010, the average amount of minerals needed for a new unit of power generation capacity has increased by 50 percent as the share of renewables in new investment has risen.”

Even under “sustainable development scenarios,” the IEA reported, lithium demand will increase by 42 percent by 2040 compared to 2020 levels, graphite will increase by 25 percent, cobalt will increase by 21 percent, nickel will increase by 19 percent, manganese will increase by 8 percent, and rare earth elements will increase by 7 percent.

Regarding the sectors contributing the most to the increased mineral demand, the IEA stated: “Wind takes the lead, bolstered by material-intensive offshore wind. Solar PV [photovoltaic] follows closely, due to the sheer volume of capacity that is added.”

Wind turbines spin behind a field of solar cell panels. Sean Gallup/Getty Images

“In climate-driven scenarios, mineral demand for use in EVs [electric vehicles] and battery storage is a major force, growing at least 30 times to 2040,” the IEA stated.

Concerning the near-term ability to meet increased demand, the organization reported that “some minerals such as lithium raw material and cobalt are expected to be in surplus in the near term.” In contrast, others such as “lithium chemical, battery-grade nickel, and key rare earth elements” will likely face “tight supply” in the future.

Looking further into the future, the IEA stated, “In a scenario consistent with climate goals, expected supply from existing mines and projects under construction is estimated to meet only half of projected lithium and cobalt requirements and 80 percent of copper needs by 2030.”

While now there’s generally enough material to supply increasing demand, the countries mining the minerals are problematic, according to the IEA.

“For lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements, the world’s top three producing nations control well over three-quarters of global output,“ the IEA stated. ”In some cases, a single country is responsible for around half of worldwide production. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and People’s Republic of China (China) were responsible for some 70 percent and 60 percent of global production of cobalt and rare earth elements, respectively, in 2019.

“The level of concentration is even higher for processing operations, where China has a strong presence across the board. China’s share of refining is around 35 percent for nickel, 50–70 percent for lithium and cobalt, and nearly 90 percent for rare earth elements. Chinese companies have also made substantial investment in overseas assets in Australia, Chile, the DRC, and Indonesia.”

Rare earth mine in the Baiyunebo mining district of Baotou in north China’s Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. China is the world’s largest supplier of rare earth elements. AP Photo

Any country controlling a critical material is problematic when considering foreign relations, and, to many, it’s even more concerning when that country is China. On Feb. 22, the Biden administration conceded that the United States increasingly depends on China to refine “cobalt, lithium, rare earth, and other critical minerals” and that such reliance constitutes a “national and economic security” threat.

To combat that threat, President Joe Biden released a statement saying that the United States would expand domestic production and transition away from its reliance on China.

However, the IEA reported, it takes, on average, 16 1/2 years from mining discovery to the first production, and “these long lead times raise questions about the ability of supply to ramp up output if demand were to pick up rapidly.”

But a monopoly on mining isn’t the only issue to consider regarding mineral extraction.

In December 2021, researchers at Northwestern University conducted an environmental life cycle assessment on extracting raw materials needed for lithium-ion batteries and published their paper in the journal One Earth.

They found that cobalt mining was associated with increased violence, physical and mental health challenges, substance abuse, and food and water insecurity, among other issues. They also noted that community members have lost communal land, farmland, and homes, which miners have dug up to extract cobalt.

“You might think of mining as just digging something up,” said Sera L. Young, an associate professor of anthropology at Northwestern University. “But they are not digging on vacant land. Homelands are dug up. People are literally digging holes in their living room floors. The repercussions of mining can touch almost every aspect of life.”

That “every aspect of life” includes children. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, an estimated 40,000 children are working in the mines under slave labor conditions—some as young as age 6. Initially, there was hope that DRC President Felix Tshisekedi would curb the abuses, but now those hopes are dwindling.

A child walks past a truck carrying rocks extracted from a cobalt mine at a copper quarry and cobalt pit in Lubumbashi, Democratic Republic of the Congo, on May 23, 2016. Junior Kannah/AFP via Getty Images

In South America, the Institute for Energy Research reported, mining activities consume 65 percent of the area’s limited water resources. Copiapó, the capital of Chile’s Atacama region, is the location of one of the world’s largest known lithium reserves.

“We used to have a river before—that now doesn’t exist. There isn’t a drop of water,” Elena Rivera Cardoso, president of the Indigenous Colla community of the Copiapó commune, told the National Resources Defense Council.

She says that all of Chile’s water is disappearing because of the local lithium mine.

“In all of Chile, there are rivers and lakes that have disappeared—all because a company has a lot more right to water than we do as human beings or citizens of Chile,” Cardoso said.

Energy Crisis in the Making

The European Green Deal and its accompanying Fit for 55 package, which includes a 55 percent reduction in GHG emissions by 2030, was approved in 2020. The overall objective is the make the EU “climate neutral” by 2050.

In 2021, at the 26th U.N. Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26), 153 countries committed to new 2030 net-zero commitments. However, the European Green Deal and COP26 weren’t the first times that European countries had committed to net-zero pursuits.

In 2000, Germany enacted the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG), which required 6 percent of energy to come from “renewable resources.” In 2017, Germany revised the legislation, upping “renewable resources” to 40 percent to 45 percent in 2025. That requirement will increase to 65 percent in 2030, according to the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action.

In 2018, the Czech Republic committed to at least 13 percent of consumed energy from “renewable sources” by 2020. It also committed to having 18 percent to 25 percent of its electricity production from “renewables” by 2040 and said that it “generally supported” EU targets for decreasing GHG emissions.

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak (L); European Union Commissioner for Energy Günther Oettinger (C); and Ukrainian Fuel and Energy Minister Yuriy Prodan (R) sign a gas agreement on Oct. 30, 2014, in Brussels. Emmanuel Dunand/AFP/Getty Images

Still, despite their claims of increased reliance on renewable energy and the touting of their reduction in domestically produced fossil fuels, countries such as Germany, Italy, the Czech Republic, and others grew their dependence on Russian natural gas imports to compensate for their energy shortfalls.

Accordingly, Russia is a world-leading natural gas producer—second only to the United States—and is the world’s largest natural gas exporter. In 2021, Russia supplied nearly 40 percent of EU natural gas demands, according to the IEA. But when Russia invaded Ukraine, that reliance became an energy anvil around Europe’s neck.

Following the Ukrainian invasion, Europe implemented sanctions against Russia in coordination with the United States and its allies. But in retaliation, Russia took measures to cut off Europe from its gas shipments.

Thanks to its early commitment to net zero, Germany has the most significant penetration of renewable energy in its energy mix. However, renewables only account for 19 percent of Germany’s energy mix, according to Geopolitical Intelligence Services. Seventy-six percent still comes from fossil fuels, with natural gas making up 26 percent of Germany’s energy needs.

Despite that, Germany’s domestic gas production is a meager 5 percent. The remaining amount is imported, with 55 percent coming from Russia. According to the International Monetary Fund, the EU, the Czech Republic, Italy, and other countries are in a similar situation, having increased their reliance on Russian gas imports to compensate for their energy shortfalls.

As a result, Europeans are bracing for a brutal winter that could include rolling blackouts and possible food shortages.

President Joe Biden signs the Inflation Reduction Act as Democrat lawmakers look on at the White House on Aug. 16, 2022. Drew Angerer/Getty Images

In August, Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act. Despite its name, nonpartisan third-party analysts state that the legislation’s impact on inflation is “negligible.” It is, however, the “most aggressive action ever” toward allowing Biden to meet climate goals.

Hidden deep within the more than 700 pages of the act is a provision that boosts the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) power to regulate greenhouse gas emissions.

Specifically, the Inflation Reduction Act establishes the Methane Emissions Reduction Program under a new section in the Clean Air Act, allowing the EPA to impose a fee on certain “air pollutants.”

More importantly, this is the first time that the federal government has ever imposed a fee on GHG emissions and is part of Congress’s effort to bolster the EPA’s power to address the “climate crisis.” It also sets the United States on a legal path of reducing GHG emissions, much like the one Europe has been on for the past few years.