After Xi Jinping secured a third term at the 20th National Congress in October, many people speculated about what he will do next. The most worrying move is that he would invade Taiwan with arms.
Especially after the Russia-Ukraine war, the United States, the European Union, and think tanks in many countries have turned their attention to China, fearing that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will use this opportunity to launch a war against Taiwan.
Technology
Although China is a major manufacturing country, it is not a manufacturing powerhouse. Almost all of the key technologies are in the hands of other countries.For example, on April 16, 2018, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced a seven-year ban on U.S. companies selling parts to ZTE Corp., a Chinese telecommunications equipment manufacturer. ZTE’s business immediately went into shock. According to a Voice of America report, Xi called then-President Donald Trump and asked if Trump could help get ZTE back in business. Trump asked Xi what he was willing to pay. Xi said he would pay a $500 million fine and remove the company’s management and board of directors. Trump countered with $1.5 billion. In addition, Trump wanted a high level of security assurance and that ZTE had to purchase a large number of U.S. components. After some bargaining, Xi cut Trump’s $1.5 billion fine to $1.3 billion.
Another example is Huawei. The U.S. sanctions against the Chinese telecom giant have caused a sharp decline in its cell phone business. About 35 million units were sold in 2021, down 81.6 percent year-on-year.
We know that the CCP maintains stability through ubiquitous surveillance cameras, face recognition, big data collection, etc. It relies on computing power and storage; without chips, the CCP cannot control society. Thus, a high-tech embargo would directly endanger the CCP’s regime.
Some may argue that during the Mao Zedong era, the CCP achieved tight social control without advanced technology. Moreover, why can North Korea gain total control over its population even though it is so poor?
We need to understand one thing—any ruling has a cost. The least costly form of ruling is the unconditional obedience of the people. In other words, a common phenomenon in communist countries is that the ruling regime makes the top leader look like a god. By making the leader a charismatic, all-knowing, god-like being who the people follow like crazy, it hardly costs much because the leader has already conquered the hearts of almost everyone. But China is not at all in a position to do that now.
Too many Chinese have given Xi all sorts of derogatory nicknames. Chinese social media platform Xiaohongshu (which means “little red book,” like what those Red Guards held during the Cultural Revolution under Mao) has leaked 564 sensitive Xi-related words that the CCP tries to censor, such as “Xi Baozi” (“Baozi” is a Chinese steamed bun) and “Xi Zhutou” (“Zhutou” means boar’s head).
Thus, the CCP can only rely on external forces like high technology to maintain its rule. If Xi fights Taiwan, it could destroy his power.
Economy
If the CCP’s rule relies heavily on high technology, which also costs money, the CCP cannot bring the economy down completely. In its annual budget, there is a big chunk called “stability maintenance expenses” to keep the repressive apparatus running, such as the salaries and equipment of the armed police, and the cost of the intelligence services, among other things.Since 2011, the CCP’s stability maintenance expenses have exceeded its military spending, which is equivalent to waging war against its own population every year. If the economy collapses, the stability maintenance system will cease to function because the armed police don’t protect the CCP out of a sense of loyalty and mission, but to receive a paycheck.
If the CCP launches an invasion against Taiwan, the ensuing economic sanctions and the international community’s cessation of trade with China will not only cause its economy to plummet, but will also make the people’s lives unsustainable.
After the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, the CCP has been using the effectiveness of its ruling to appear legitimate; that is, this regime has not been legally authorized. But because the people’s lives have been improving due to the reform and opening up policy and China’s admittance to the World Trade Organization, they do not question why the CCP is the only ruling party. However, an economic downturn would turn the legitimacy of the CCP’s rule into a prominent issue. That is why Xi can’t afford to fight Taiwan.
The third reason is Xi’s concern for the security of his own power. The fourth reason is whether he can win the war. These two issues will be explored in the second part of this op-ed.
