Sometimes one thinks Taiwan’s defense is just a question of hardware. Buy or build this-and-that weapon in the right quantities, and don’t buy or build this-and-that weapon—and all will be fine. The Chinese will be deterred.
And just about every American analyst, official, and commentator say they know exactly what Taiwan needs.
Now to be clear: hardware matters, and the right sorts of weapons, properly employed, would make Taiwan a tough nut to crack—or a “porcupine,” as is frequently described. The thrashing that Hezbollah gave the Israeli military during the 2006 Israeli assault on Lebanon ought to give even the most “dominant” military second and third thoughts. Switzerland has been coasting on a similar reputation for decades, if not centuries.
Taiwan would indeed do well to have long-range precision weapons, missiles, mines (especially “smart” mines), weaponized unmanned aerial and undersea vehicles, sophisticated anti-air weapons, sensor-fused munitions, and other weapons that are hard to target and can inflict damage and casualties at long distances.
How many are needed? A lot. A more precise figure: “one more.”
Chinese Political and Psychological Warfare
Chinese political warfare and subversion against Taiwan (and against Taiwan’s allies) is as serious a threat as the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) growing assault force. Beijing used social media and other media and influencers to elect its man as mayor of Kaohsiung, Taiwan’s second largest city, in 2018. He made a serious run for president two years later. Fortunately, Taiwan’s government had woken to the threat after the Kaohsiung surprise—but it has not gone away.Military Service in Taiwan
Military service in Taiwan is not a respected profession, and the serf-like treatment the military receives undermines Taiwan’s defense. It’s underfunded, underappreciated, and, until recently, has not been an urgent priority for Taiwan’s government. People matter as much as weapons.Taiwan has a shambolic—and ineffective—military reserve system and no “civil defense” scheme. This is inexcusable. A civil defense scheme and a military reserve system give the average citizen an awareness of the threats and a stake in the nation’s defense. Without them, a mindset takes hold—as it has in Taiwan—that “someone else will take care of it.”
A ‘Galapagos Military’
Taiwan’s military is in most respects a “Galapagos military”—“isolated” since 1979 and forced to evolve on its own as best it can. The American military has—with only a few rare and small-scale exceptions—refused to conduct joint training with Taiwan’s armed forces.Taiwan-US Free Trade Agreement
A Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the United States would help with Taiwan’s defense—and bolster civilian morale. Indeed, an FTA would be worth a few squadrons of F-35’s. Former President Donald Trump’s trade officials apparently declined to move on this since they were “busy” with China. Being civil servants, they were perhaps unfamiliar with the words “work overtime.”An FTA would probably give a nice jolt to Taiwan’s economy, thus improving job prospects for young Taiwanese—and maybe encouraging them to procreate and produce more Taiwanese, who are in short supply.
So, as you can see, there’s more to defending Taiwan than sending out procurement officers with credit cards and bags of money to buy the right weapons. Hardware is indispensable, of course, but is not a magic solution. Rather, it is one piece of a ten-piece puzzle when a nation’s defense is on the line.