Commentary
For much of the Cold War, the Air Defense Command was a significant component of the Air Force.
At any one time, hundreds of jet interceptors, many with nuclear missiles, were on alert around the country to take off within minutes to challenge any unknown aircraft attempting to enter the American Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). These American interceptors were also based in Alaska, Hawaii, Greenland, Iceland, and at times in Canada, in addition to Canadian interceptors. The Air Force and Army also had thousands of anti-aircraft missiles at the ready. No Russian aircraft ever went unchallenged or entered the ADIZ in any significant breach.
Although the United States tried many innovative ways to penetrate the air space of the communist powers, there was not quite the reciprocity of innovation or boldness to challenge American Airspace. With the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union, most of this sophisticated air defense of the United States was retired. The whole thought or specter of foreign threat actors endangering American airspace became a topic again after 9/11, but soon faded. Now communist China has brought back an old-school technique with new capabilities to challenge American air sovereignty.
A Stunning Breach of the Canadian/American Airspace
North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) is the joint American/Canadian military command responsible for the air sovereignty of the United States and Canada. Operating out of both Peterson Air Force Base (AFB) in Colorado Springs, Colorado, and the famous Cheyenne Mountain Complex, American Gen. Glen VanHerck and Canadian Lt. Gen. Alain Pelletier are supposed to lead the mission to ensure no hostile or unauthorized aircraft enter the jointly defended Canadian-American ADIZ. Intercepts of Russian long-range aviation have become routine over the years, with the last attempted incursion being in October 2022.Gen. VanHerck, who is dual-hatted as commander of Northern Command (NORTHCOM), gave an interesting talk on his “strategic dashboard” at the Aspen Security Forum in July 2022, where he specifically cited his No. 1 challenge being “domain awareness,” for example, being able to see targets in the approaches to the United States, and said he doesn’t have what he needs. This talk was a harbinger of things to come.
Something went horribly wrong with NORAD’s domain awareness, and the system and process failed. The failure of NORAD interceptors at Portland Air National Guard Base, Canadian Forces Base Comox, or Alaska to engage the target in the ADIZ is stunning.
The Chinese balloons look interestingly similar to a now-shut-down Google initiative, Project Loon. In approximately 2012, I was briefed by the Loon project manager. I immediately recognized the Loon initiative’s similarity to Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) efforts from long ago called by several names—including Skyhook, Ashcan, and Moby Dick—to use balloons with cameras and other capabilities to penetrate Soviet airspace. He told me that Google had requested the information from the CIA under a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request and received the plans and program documents.
The key difference was that Google was using advanced artificial intelligence to navigate the balloons by raising and lowering their altitude to leverage different wind directions and speeds at different flight levels to provide the balloons a maneuvering capability, which the Department of Defense has mentioned in its briefs on the Chinese balloons. Google has shut down Loon, but the Chinese have picked up the balloon program, possibly borrowing from CIA and Google efforts.
What Are the Chinese Spying On?
The Chinese balloon is coincidently in a prime location to observe, measure, report, and analyze American strategic capabilities. There is a belt of key Air Force Bases under the balloons’ path that hold sway over much of the American military capabilities to conduct reconnaissance and nuclear strike forces on alert.The first base is Malmstrom AFB, Montana, which holds the 341st Missile Wing and approximately 150 Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), dispersed in remote silos with single nuclear warheads (the Minuteman can hold up to three warheads). Curiously, the base used to also have B-52 bombers, but the runway is inoperable and no longer considered a flying base.
Francis E. Warren AFB is close by in Wyoming and holds the 90th Missile Wing with another approximately 150 Minuteman III missiles and just signed an extensive agreement for the deployment of the Minuteman replacement, the Sentinel missile.
Airmen assigned to the 319th Aircraft Maintenance Squadron from Grand Forks Air Force Base perform a maintenance check on a drone, in North Dakota, on June 6, 2022. U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Ashley Richards
In North Dakota, Minot AFB holds the 5th Bomb Wing with about 40, B-52H bombers and the 91st Missile Wing (the other B-52H base being Barksdale AFB, Louisianna). The 91st is the third and final ICBM Wing of the U.S. Air Force, overseeing the final tranche of approximately 150 ICBMs on alert. Grand Forks AFB in North Dakota holds the 319th Reconnaissance Wing, which maintains the Global Hawk, a very large drone that can fly worldwide. The Global Hawk is being retired in favor of a more stealthy and survivable drone, the B-21-like RQ-180.
Close by is also Truax Field, Wisconsin, which has the 115th Fighter Wing with F-16 interceptors, and is also transitioning to the new, stealthy F-35.
The Chinese have given several descriptions of their spy balloon—all communicating that there is no military or intelligence function for the balloon and counseling American leadership to remain “cool-headed” over these events. To think that the balloon does not have sensitive spy equipment, is not reconnoitering these sensitive American bases, and may not be transmitting to Chinese low Earth orbit satellites to evade American network surveillance is simply a denial of reality. The ability of the balloon to navigate and maneuver makes it an ideal delivery method for an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) or bioweapon over a broad swath of the country.
Accountability for This Failure and Ominous Meanings for the Future
Gen. VanHerck’s comments at the Aspen Institute are foreboding. There must be complete transparency and decisive action on this unprecedented challenge to American air sovereignty. The Montana governor and Montana Congressman Ryan Zinke urged a shoot down of the balloon.Although the balloon has now been shot down off the South Carolina coast, the question is why was it not shot down entering the U.S. ADIZ, and according to an unnamed source, this is not the first time this activity has happened, which begs more questions. The Chinese are sending multiple strategic messages, the first and foremost of which is a test of the resolve of the Biden administration.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
