China has been stepping up engagement with five Central Asian nations hot on the heals of a
ten-day tour of the Pacific. Observers say Central Asian leaders may be reconsidering their bilateral ties with Moscow in favor of China or the United States as the Russia-Ukraine war drags on.
Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi attended the third China+Central Asia (C+C5) foreign ministers meeting in Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan on June 8. The C5 are Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
The ministers reached a
ten-point consensus on cooperation in areas ranging from the Belt and Road projects, regional transport connectivity, Afghanistan security, economy, and trade investments.
Wang also met with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev ahead of the summit, during which he called on Central Asian nations to avoid getting into “major power conflicts” or being forced to choose sides.
Both sides expressed “deep concerns about the serious spillover impacts of the Ukraine crisis,” the
Chinese Foreign Ministry stated.
Analysts said the Russia-Ukraine war had prompted Central Asian nations to “re-evaluate” their long-term bilateral ties with Russia, which has been hit with a barrage of Western sanctions since its invasion of Ukraine.
“We believe the Central Asian states will quietly distance themselves from Russia where that is possible without provoking a reaction, as they contemplate the invasion of Ukraine and the altered geopolitical circumstances in which they find themselves,” the research and analysis division of The Economist Group
stated.Consulting firm
Dezan Shira and Associates said that “Central Asia has become of increasing strategic importance to China as a result of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,” which has constrained direct supply chain links between China and the European Union.
“Alternatives now need increased investment into Central Asia, with Russia also being a beneficiary and co-partner in this strategy,” the firm stated.
China has refrained from condemning Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, citing Moscow’s “legitimate concerns on security issues” as justification. The two nations declared a
“no limits” partnership on the opening day of the Beijing Winter Olympics on Feb. 4.
The United States has also worked on increasing ties with Central Asia. Last month, assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asian affairs, Donald Lu, led the U.S. delegation on a five-day trip to the Kyrgyz Republic, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan.
According to the
U.S. Embassy in Tajikistan, the goal was to strengthen Washington’s relations with the region and advance “collaborative efforts to create a more connected, prosperous, and secure Central Asia.”
Washington also developed a
strategy for Central Asia in February 2020, which aims to “promote U.S. values and provide a counterbalance to the influence of regional neighbors.”
