What CCP Fears If US Can Negotiate an End to Russia-Ukraine War: Analysts

China, facing political infighting and an ailing economy, risks emerging as America’s top threat if the Ukraine war ends. Can it withstand the pressure?

Chinese security guards look at military delegates during the speech of Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the Communist Party's 19th Congress in Beijing on Oct. 18, 2017. Fred Dufour/AFP via Getty Images

If U.S. President Donald Trump can negotiate a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, communist China could become the next target of the United States, analysts say.

During a phone call on Feb. 24, Chinese leader Xi Jinping reaffirmed the “no limit” partnership he declared three years ago with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

In a show of unity, Xi told Putin that their nations are “good neighbors” and “true friends who have been through thick and thin together,” according to Beijing’s readout.

Analysts said the warm sentiments expressed as the war in Ukraine marks its third year reflect the Chinese regime’s serious concerns.

“Xi Jinping’s greatest fear is that Putin might lean towards Trump” or even facilitate U.S. efforts to contain his regime, Cai Shenkun, an independent Chinese current affairs commentator, told The Epoch Times.

According to Cai, the alliance between the two autocracies is not as solid as it appears. He said that the war in Ukraine has acted as a catalyst, forging a closer bond between Beijing and Moscow and their economies. Once a cease-fire is reached, some longstanding friction points in their partnership, such as territorial disputes along their shared border, may resurface.

Additionally, Beijing’s support of Moscow’s war efforts has strained its ties with Washington and Brussels, he said.

U.S. officials have repeatedly criticized China for helping Russia to rebuild its defense-industrial complex through the export of goods that can be used for both civilian and military purposes, thus providing Moscow an economic lifeline amid Western sanctions.

Meanwhile, European leaders, including the NATO secretary general, are reconsidering their reliance on authoritarian regimes, especially in light of the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II.

“In the past, we made the mistake of becoming dependent on Russian oil and gas. We must not repeat that mistake with China: Depending on its money, its raw materials, and its technologies,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said at an event in April 2024. “Dependencies make us vulnerable.”

Cai said that as global distrust toward communist China rises, the regime could find itself sidelined once the conflict in Ukraine ends and Putin no longer needs Xi’s support.

“Neither Ukraine nor Russia will be grateful to China [for the war]. Europe certainly won’t either,” Cai said. “Xi was left with little choice but to place his bets on Putin.”

A Shift in US Focus Toward China

An expert on Western Europe security and the Chinese military at the National Taiwan University in Taipei, Chen Shih-min, echoed those viewpoints. Beijing and Moscow are bonded by common interests, he said, which means they'll diverge once these interests conflict.

Chen said that once the Ukraine war is settled, the Trump administration’s intention may be to shift its focus to driving Beijing and Moscow apart and confronting the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

“Trump will come down hard on the CCP,” Chen told The Epoch Times.

U.S. defense leaders have indicated a strategic pivot toward countering threats from communist China.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has described communist China as a peer competitor with the “capability and intent to threaten our homeland and core national interests in the Indo-Pacific.”

“The U.S. is prioritizing deterring war with China in the Pacific, recognizing the reality of scarcity, and making the resourcing tradeoffs to ensure deterrence does not fail,” Hegseth said in his opening remarks at the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Brussels on Feb. 12.

This shift in focus extends beyond the U.S. military.

“To bring manufacturing back to the United States and to address the trade deficit, Trump has to target the root of these problems: the CCP,” Chen said.

A container ship is loaded at the port in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on Dec. 10, 2024. STR/AFP via Getty Images

Challenges Facing Beijing at Home

As external pressures mount, can the CCP withstand the scrutiny? Cheng Cheng-ping, a professor at Taiwan’s National Yunlin University of Science and Technology, said he hasn’t seen any sign indicating the immediate end of the CCP’s rule, although there are indicators of “regime decay and decline,” such as political infighting and a faltering economy.

The world’s second-largest economy is grappling with sluggish domestic demand, an aging population, and a protracted crisis in the real estate sector.

The unemployment rate for people aged 16 to 24 has soared to levels that haven’t been seen in decades. Chinese authorities temporarily paused reporting the figures in June 2023 after official data showed one in five young Chinese were not employed. Many college graduates have turned to low-paying jobs, as the economy falters and foreign companies withdraw, leading to rising public discontent.

Chen said that although public discontent or a slowing economy will not fundamentally threaten the party’s rule, given its mass surveillance and tight social control, it could create a scenario where Xi considers aggressive military action, such as an invasion of Taiwan, to deflect criticism from himself.

“Public discontent is very strong. From another point of view, there must be a way to vent this discontent, and a war would be enough to divert the public’s attention from Xi Jinping,” Cheng told The Epoch Times.

The CCP has never ruled Taiwan but views the self-ruled democracy as its own territory and would not rule out using force to seize control. The People’s Liberation Army frequently sends its aircraft and warships to conduct large-scale drills near Taiwan to wear down the island’s defenses.

The most recent live-fire exercises occurred roughly 40 nautical miles off the coast of Kaohsiung City in southern Taiwan. On Feb. 26, Taiwan’s defense ministry reported that 45 Chinese military aircraft and 16 Chinese warships were detected near the island.

Cheng, who visited Kyiv, Odesa, and two other Ukrainian cities in 2023 to study how Taiwan can learn from the war in Europe, said he disagrees with the idea that Xi might act cautiously during the second Trump term.

According to his analysis, the likelihood of an invasion increases as Beijing advances its defense sector, which has outpaced that of the United States in key areas like shipbuilding.

A leaked U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence report showed China’s shipbuilding capability is more than 200 times greater than that of the United States.

However, a rush into a military attack against Taiwan, according to Cheng, may lead to “the endgame” of Communist rule in China.

The Endgame of Communist Rule in China?

Activist Qin Jin said that despite the absence of any “clear sign” pointing to an immediate fall of the CCP, he won’t be surprised if it all unravels overnight, much like the collapse of the Soviet Union, which few in the West foresaw until it actually happened in 1991.

Qin highlighted the secrecy that cloaks authoritarian regimes, likening the CCP’s internal workings to the Iron Curtain of the Soviet era, dubbing it the “Bamboo Curtain” in China.

“What lies behind the Bamboo Curtain is almost impossible to know until the authorities choose to reveal it,” Qin, the chairman of the pro-democracy Federation for a Democratic China in Australia, told The Epoch Times.

As an example of the regime’s opacity, Qin cited Beijing’s tight control of information related to COVID-19, which first emerged in the central Chinese city of Wuhan five years ago.

To this day, Beijing still resisted international investigation into the origin of the pandemic, leaving the world in the dark about how the pandemic erupted in China.

A Chinese soldier stands at the gate during the second plenary session of the first session of the 13th National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on March 9, 2018. Fred Dufour/AFP via Getty Images

It only becomes more secretive when it comes to the country’s power center.

Qin pointed to the mystery surrounding the death of former No. 2 official Li Keqiang in October 2023, seven months after he stepped down as premier.

Li’s death at the age of 68 raised eyebrows among China watchers, who highlighted the Party elites’ record of longevity. Li’s two immediate predecessors, Wen Jiabao, 83, and Zhu Rongji, 96, are still living.

Some commentators speculated that Li’s passing coincides with political infighting within the Party’s top brass. A string of senior officials and military commanders, including the former foreign minister Qin Gang and defense minister Li Shangfu, had been abruptly removed from office after unexplained disappearances.

“The details of Li Keqiang’s death will surely be disclosed in the future,” Qin said. “When? After the collapse of the communist regime.”

Discontent among law enforcement personnel is surging within the major cities. Recently, Qin spoke with a police chief from a provincial capital who had fled overseas—an indication of unrest even among the high ranks of the public security bureaus, which are usually under tight CCP control.

“It’s akin to a big earthquake,” he said. “Humans may not feel it coming, but animals sense [the danger] beforehand.”

He cautioned that the regime’s collapse could happen unexpectedly, catching the world off-guard.

“It’s entirely possible,” he said. “And I look forward to that day.”

Luo Ya contributed to this report.