Analysts Say Trade Talks With the US Are Ongoing, but China Can’t Say It

Beijing’s insistence on the lack of tariff negotiations with Washington has sparked speculation about what might be unfolding behind the scenes.

A man and a woman sit on a bench facing the Yantian International Container Terminals, where massive container ships are docked beneath rows of gantry cranes, in Shenzhen, China, on April 11, 2025. Cheng Xin/Getty Images

China’s ruling communist regime has repeatedly denied that it’s engaged in trade negotiations with the United States, as President Donald Trump said that talks were underway.

Beijing’s insistence on no discussion has sparked speculation about what might be unfolding behind the scenes.

The Trump administration has signaled openness to de-escalate trade tensions with China, and on April 16, the White House stated that it’s up to China to come to the negotiating table.

On April 17, China’s commerce ministry responded by calling on Washington to ease pressures. A ministry spokesperson added that they have maintained regular “working-level communication” with their U.S. counterpart, though specifics of those discussions were not disclosed.

Hours later, President Donald Trump told reporters that senior officials from Beijing had reached out “a lot” following the increase in U.S. tariffs on China-origin imports to 145 percent. Trump expressed optimism about reaching a deal with Beijing, saying that the tariff war could be concluded “over the next three or four weeks.”

On April 24, China’s commerce ministry signaled little interest in changing course when asked if Beijing is seeking trade talks with Washington.

“At present, there are no economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States,” He Yadong, the ministry’s spokesperson, said at a briefing in Beijing. He added that the Trump administration should “fully eliminate all unilateral tariff measures against China” if it hopes to solve the two nations’ trade disputes.

The foreign ministry also said the Chinese side “has not held consultations or negotiations on the tariff issue” during a separate briefing in Beijing.

Asked about China’s statement later in Washington, Trump said, “They had a meeting this morning.”

“It doesn’t matter who ‘they’ is. We may reveal it later but they had meetings this morning, and we’ve been meeting with China,” Trump told reporters.

On April 25, China’s foreign ministry repeated its previous response when asked about the Trump administration’s comments, saying that no negotiations were underway with the U.S. side concerning tariff issues.

On April 27, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that he had interactions with his Chinese counterpart during the International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington last week. “But it was more on the traditional things like financial stability, global economic early warnings,” Bessent told ABC News’ “This Week.”

When asked why Beijing denied any ongoing trade negotiations, Bessent said he thinks “they’re playing to a different audience,” referring to China’s domestic audience.

On April 28, China’s foreign ministry once again stated that it was not engaged in tariff negotiations with the Trump administration.

The CCP’s Dilemma

For analysts who have long observed the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)—whose declaration to fight the tariff war “to the end” has choked China’s export engine and dented the economic outlook of millions of Chinese—extending an olive branch to initiate negotiations could mean a show of weakness that could undermine its legitimacy.

“Has China engaged in trade talks with the United States? The answer should be, ‘Yes,’” Yeh Yao-Yuan, an international studies professor at the University of St Thomas in Houston, told The Epoch Times on April 25.

However, once it’s acknowledged that these discussions are happening, another question arises: what did China gain from them? That answer, according to Yeh, could potentially embarrass Beijing more than being caught in a lie.

“From the U.S. perspective, entering trade talks requires China to make concessions in some areas, whether that’s increasing purchases of American goods or significantly lowering tariffs,” Yeh said. “But how can China tell its people that they’re making concessions?

“It’s still a matter of face and rationality.”

People walk past buildings in Beijing's central business district as they head to work on April 11, 2025. Greg Baker/AFP via Getty Images

Facing the Trump administration’s trade pressures, the CCP has been trying to maintain a hard-line approach. The regime has retaliated against U.S. tariffs by increasing its own levies on American goods to a staggering 125 percent and has tightened export controls on several types of rare earth metals, which are crucial for defense and a wide array of consumer products.

CCP officials have repeatedly said the regime will not back down. On social media, a senior diplomat shared a video clip of Mao Zedong, the communist China’s first leader, proclaiming during the Korean War, “No matter how long this war is going to last, we will never yield.” Such messages, amplified by their propaganda machinery, have widely circulated behind China’s Great Firewall that filters the Internet, igniting nationalistic fervor among citizens.

The CCP appears to have backed itself into a corner, outside observers say.

“I think [Beijing] is at a bit of a loss about what to do next,” Yeh said. “They don’t want to lose face, but confronting the United States head-on seems unlikely.

“So they find themselves caught in a dilemma.”

Unofficial Talks Ongoing?

While CCP leaders have sought to downplay the impact of U.S. tariffs, economists and professors have cautioned that a tough time lies ahead for its export-driven economy.

The triple-digit U.S. tariffs have dealt a blow to numerous small and medium-sized manufacturers in China, forcing them to either halt operations or pivot to compete in the domestic market. That comes on top of some problems that have plagued China’s centralized economy for years, including a real estate crisis, record-high youth unemployment rates, and reluctance among consumers to spend.

An employee works at a toy factory specializing in solar-powered plastic gadgets in Yiwu, China's eastern Zhejiang province, on April 11, 2025. Adek Berry/AFP via Getty Images

Global investment banks have revised down their predictions for China’s economic growth this year. Goldman Sachs, for instance, recently downgraded its forecast from 4.5 percent to 4 percent, citing the impact of the substantial increase in U.S. tariffs. China has set an economic growth target of around 5 percent for 2025.

“The [trade] war is so brutal,” China expert Wang He told The Epoch Times on April 25. “The CCP should have kept sending people seeking to contact the United States. It’s very likely, and in private,” Wang said.

“But to save face, the CCP would stick to its tough rhetoric and refuse to soften its stance. That’s why it insisted on no negotiation with the United States.”

Beijing sometimes opts to send officials for discussions without granting them official titles or formal authorization, Wang said. This approach allows China to gauge other countries’ positions before any formal engagement, a practice Wang described as “customary practice” by Beijing.

Additionally, Wang said that the working-level communication acknowledged by China’s commerce ministry with their U.S. counterparts would “certainly touch upon tariffs issues.”

Still, in the regime’s definition, such interactions don’t equate to negotiations, Wang said. “Only with a certain level of authorization … can they engage in ‘negotiations,’” Wang said.

“So even if Beijing were to reach out to [U.S. side], without an official title, they can still deny any outreach,” Wang said.

“It’s just verbal sleight of hand.”

Did Xi Decide Beijing’s Response?

In an interview with Time magazine on April 22, Trump said that Chinese leader Xi Jinping had called him, without specifying when such conversations happened.

“And I don’t think that’s a sign of weakness on his behalf,” Trump said.

On April 28, China’s foreign ministry denied the existence of such a conversation.

“As far as I know, there have not been any calls between the two heads of state recently,” Guo Jiakun, a spokesperson, said at a regular briefing in Beijing.

Yeh said it wouldn’t surprise him if the CCP lied about trade talks.

Wang characterized Beijing’s persistent denial of dialogues with Washington as odd.

Unlike their American counterparts, Xi and the CCP’s elite rarely speak directly to journalists. Instead, their messages only relay through the foreign ministry or selected agencies, which tend to be tight-lipped, Wang noted.

He noted that these developments unfold against a backdrop of intensified speculation about power struggles within the CCP’s upper echelons, following the downfall of more than a dozen senior military commanders and Party officials over the past two years. Those being targeted include Xi’s close allies, such as an admiral overseeing the armed forces.

“There are many strange things happening in the CCP’s leadership,” Wang said. “Speculation has long circulated that Xi Jinping’s grip on power has waned, raising questions about the stability of his position.”

In light of this situation, Wang posed the following questions: “What problems do the CCP leadership currently face? How will the internal politics evolve? Who is truly in control?”

“These are the biggest problems,” he said of China.

Luo Ya contributed to this report.