The report predicts the upcoming global trend of the outflow and inflow of wealthy people.
China will experience the most loss of wealthy people in the world in 2023, with a total outflow of 13,500 people. Meanwhile, Hong Kong is expected to lose 1,000 millionaires.
The Private Wealth Migration Report 2023 defines high-net-worth individuals as “wealthy people with over one million U.S. dollars in investable assets.”
China, India, the United Kingdom, Russia, and Brazil will have the most outflow of high-net-worth individuals in 2023.
In 2022, a net of 10,800 millionaires departed China for good.
The figure is expected to rise to 13,500 in 2023, increasing about 30 percent.
In India, while 7,500 millionaires moved away in 2022, the number will considerably reduce to 6,500 in 2023.
Meanwhile, The United Kingdom lost 1,600 millionaires in 2022 and is said to double to 3,200 in 2023.
In 2022, 8,500 millionaires left Russia for another country, but the report predicts a significant decline to 3,000 in 2023.
Brazil lost 1,800 millionaires in 2022, but the number is expected to drop to 1,200 in 2023.
Hong Kong takes sixth place in the ranking of the world’s largest outflow of the rich.
The Big 5
Australia, the United Arab Emirates, Singapore, the United States, and Switzerland will become the top five countries with the most inflow of rich people in 2023.Australia’s inflow of millionaires reached a net of 3,800 in 2022. It will keep rising to 5,200 in 2023, with an increase of about 37 percent.
In 2022, 5,200 millionaires migrated to The United Arab Emirates, but the trend will decrease to 4,500 in 2023.
Meanwhile, Singapore gained 2,900 millionaires in 2022, expanding to 3,200 in 2023.
The United States is expected to gain 2,100 millionaires in 2023 versus 1,500 in 2022.
A net total of 2,200 millionaires migrated to Switzerland in 2022. The inflow of high-net-worth individuals will continue with a projected increase of 1,800 in 2023.
Pandemic, Politics Impacts Wealth Migration
The migration of millionaires grew from 51,000 in 2013 to 110,000 in 2019. However, the numbers dropped during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 to 12,000 and 25,000, respectively.As the global pandemic dwindled in 2022, the number of high-net-worth individuals moving to a new country rose again to 84,000.
CCP’s Stiffened Surveillance Affects The Rich
Misha Glenny, dean at the Institut für die Wissenschaften vom Menschen (IWM), warns that China and Hong Kong will keep losing the rich rapidly, as the Chinese Communist Party has been tightening its monitoring on local banks, internet companies, and their senior executives for the past three years.The CCP has also reinforced its surveillance of non-Chinese business communities while oppressing the Hong Kong pro-democracy movement in 2019.
Glenny says that compared with 2021, the number of high-net-worth individuals in mainland China decreased by five percent in 2022, just below the one million persons mark.
Similarly, Hong Kong lost 11 percent of its wealthy citizens between 2021 and 2022.
Steffen believes that the rich will move their investment depending on political stability, low taxes, and personal freedom.
When the rich and their families move away with their wealth, companies, connections, and taxes to other countries, the place of origin will experience an adverse impact on its economy.
Wealthy individuals need a backup plan to ensure their offspring receive top education with greater reach to success and opportunities.
Three cities in China and the United States reached the top 10.
The Rich Leaving Amid National Security Law
According to the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department, 60,000 Hong Kong residents left between the end of 2021 and 2022, doubling from just 28,900 in 2021.From mid-2018 to mid-2019, the net inflow of wealthy Hong Kong residents was 5,200 before the anti-extradition movement intensified.
Since the Hong Kong government imposed the National Security Law on June 30, 2020, 96,400 residents with high net worth have departed Hong Kong from the end of 2019 to the end of 2020, hitting a new high in recent years.
In early 2022, investment bank Daiwa Capital Markets forecasted that the capital outflow from Hong Kong would exceed US$100 billion in the following two years, mostly occurring in 2022.
A net outflow of US$48 billion was recorded in Hong Kong in 2021.