Taiwan could defend its de facto independence from an amphibious invasion by China, according to the results of a new wargame. The United States would need to be a player in the war, however, and losses to life and materiel would be immense on all sides.
The wargame was developed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a security-focused think tank, and played over 24 iterations in a wide variety of scenarios.
Eric Heginbotham, a research scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and co-author of the game, said that the game demonstrated such a conflict would have far-reaching consequences.
“Broadly speaking, we reached two conclusions. First, under most circumstances, China is unlikely to succeed in its operational objectives to occupy Taipei. Second, the costs of war would be high for all involved.”
Notably, Taiwan survived as an autonomous entity in all but five iterations of the game, but the preservation of the island’s democratic way of life required strong commitments from other nations including the United States and Japan.
Heginbotham said that, while the game was essentially an exploration of uncertainty, one thing was made certain: Taiwan’s military was not prepared to weather such a conflict alone.
“This should be an absolute wakeup call for Taiwan,” Heginbotham said. “The Taiwanese Army is not the Ukrainian Army. It is nowhere near as well prepared.”
The Invasion
“The invasion always starts the same way: an opening bombardment destroys most of Taiwan’s navy and air force in the first hours of hostilities,” the report stated.“Augmented by a powerful rocket force, the Chinese navy encircles Taiwan and interdicts any attempts to get ships and aircraft to the besieged island,” it added.
“Tens of thousands of Chinese soldiers cross the strait in a mix of military amphibious craft and civilian roll-on, roll-off ships, while air assault and airborne troops land behind the beachheads.”
It is at this juncture in the games that, despite overwhelming firepower from China’s communist regime, the invaders begin to struggle and fall to Taiwan and U.S. efforts to defend beachheads and cripple the amphibious fleet.
That turn of events, however, belies the one critical assumption of the game, and the first “critical condition” that needs to be met for victory against China to be assured: Taiwan must choose to resist.
“There is one major assumption here: Taiwan must resist and not capitulate,” according to the report.
“If Taiwan surrenders before U.S. forces can be brought to bear, the rest is futile.”
That statement hints at the second critical condition of victory: The United States must immediately enter direct combat with China in defense of Taiwan.
“There’s no Ukraine model for a Taiwan war,” said Matthew Cancian, a senior researcher at the United States Naval War College and co-author of the game. “We can’t simply try to resupply Taiwan and give them weapons during the war, because China will be able to intercept any sort of shipment.”
“Any delay or hesitance on the U.S. part only increases both casualties and the chances of Chinese success.”
In most scenarios, the United States does indeed come to the defense of Taiwan, which China preempts with strikes against air and naval bases in Japan and the United States. The battles are bloody but ultimately victorious for Taiwan and its allies.
Without U.S. support, however, Cancian said there was no path to victory for Taiwan.
“If there’s no U.S. commitment whatsoever, we estimate that it would take about two or three months for China to conquer Taiwan if Taiwan resisted to the best of its abilities,” Cancian said.
“But success on China’s part is inevitable.”
Catastrophic Losses on All Sides
Though U.S. involvement in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan appears to ensure victory in most scenarios, the report warns that the fighting, and dying, will take place at a scale unseen by the nation since World War II.The report found that the United States would likely suffer losses at an average rate of 140 soldiers killed per day.
For comparison, the killed rate at the height of the Vietnam War was 30 per day. At the height of the Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, it was three per day.
Such death and gore would not be without its own consequences on the American psyche and dedication to the war effort, the report warned. Moreover, it would be a shock to a military that has operated advanced equipment in virtually uncontested environments for decades.
“In addition to shocking the U.S. public, the scale of casualties and equipment loss would stagger a U.S. military that has dominated battlefields for a generation,” the report stated.
“These losses would be particularly difficult for the Air Force and Navy, which have essentially operated in sanctuary since the end of World War II.”
Relatedly, the report found that, while U.S. aircraft were vastly superior to their Chinese counterparts, the vast majority of losses occurred before such assets could be brought to the fight.
Some 90 percent of allied aircraft losses occurred on the ground, the report found. Likewise, the risk to U.S. soldiers en route to Taiwan would be immense.
“In one iteration,” the report stated, “an attempt to insert a U.S. Army brigade onto Taiwan by air resulted in two of the three battalions (roughly 2,000 soldiers) being destroyed in the air.”
To that end, the report concluded that the United States, Taiwan, and Japan needed to remain proactive, and work to prepare for and deter such a conflict. Above all, it said, Taiwan must be dedicated to fighting for its own preservation.
“The game results showed that the United States and Taiwan could successfully defend the island even under relatively pessimistic assumptions,” the report stated. “However, there is no cause for complacency by the United States or Taiwan.”
“First, China could choose other coercive paths, whether it be the seizure of offshore Taiwanese islands, a bombardment without ensuing invasion, or a blockade… Second, the morale of Taiwan’s military and leadership must be strong enough to resist a Chinese attack in the face of high losses. Without the will to resist, the rest is irrelevant.”
