New Taiwan Presidency Sparks Multifaceted Aggression by the CCP: Experts
President Lai Ching-te expressed Taiwan’s hope that Congress would continue to pass legislation to help Taiwan strengthen its self-defense capabilities.
Following the inauguration of Taiwan’s new President Lai Ching-te, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has increased its military aggression toward Taiwan. Amid mass protests in Taiwan against the Taiwanese parliament’s plan to expand its powers, the CCP has been accused of influencing political conflicts in Taiwanese politics.
Three days after President Lai Ching-te took office, China conducted a two-day military exercise in the waters around Taiwan. Subsequently, on May 27, House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul led a bipartisan delegation on a visit to Taiwan and met the newly inaugurated president.
Mr. Lai expressed Taiwan’s hope that the U.S. Congress would continue to pass legislation to help Taiwan strengthen its self-defense capabilities and enhance U.S.-Taiwan exchanges and cooperation. Mr. McCaul emphasized that all democratic countries must unite against aggression and tyranny.
During this time, Taiwan witnessed the “Sunflower Movement 2.0,” which protested against the new, vague criminal offense of “contempt of parliament” proposed by the opposition party Kuomintang (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). Experts believe that the actions of these two parties were influenced by the CCP.
The Sunflower Movement refers to mass protests in 2014 in Taiwan against the then-ruling KMT’s plan for closer trade relations with China, leading to the protesters’ occupation of Taiwan’s parliament, the Legislative Yuan. The KMT eventually backed down from the proposed trade agreement with China.
Tang Jingyuan, a China affairs specialist, told The Epoch Times that he believes there is deep-seated CCP infiltration involved in the turmoil in Taiwan’s parliament, creating a situation of internal and external pressure.
YuanHongbing, a renowned Chinese dissident based in Australia and the former head of the law school at Peking University, also told The Epoch Times that Taiwan’s turmoil is orchestrated by the CCP and that the CCP will ultimately resort to a military invasion to resolve the Taiwan issue.
Think Tank: CCP’s Strategy to Force Taiwan’s Surrender
On May 13, the Institute for the Study of War, an American think tank, released a report warning against overlooking the CCP strategy to take Taiwan “without a war.” The 111-page report titled “From Coercion to Capitulation: How China Can Take Taiwan Without a War” was written by Dan Blumenthal and six other experts, and it is the latest authoritative study on the issue.
The report suggests that while the international focus, including that of the United States, is on how the CCP might use force to attack Taiwan, there is another strategy at play: using all available means short of military force to place Taiwan in a dire situation, ultimately forcing it to surrender.
The report highlighted four key points on what tactics the CCP might employ:
“The first is the US-Taiwan strategic relationship, which involves comprehensive bilateral cooperation. The COA [short-of-war coercion course of action] uses economic carrots and sticks, information operations, and military escalation to convince the US and Taiwan that their cooperation directly precipitates further escalation, whereas peace and prosperity are just around the corner if this partnership is halted.
“The second center of gravity is the ROC [Taiwan] government’s ability to function and provide essential services. Economic warfare, cyber warfare, sabotage, rigorous (and pseudo-legal) inspections of ships carrying goods to Taiwan, air and sea closures, electronic warfare, and propaganda critical of government mismanagement seek to drastically decrease standards of living and erode the ROC government’s legitimacy in the eyes of its own people.
“Third, extensive and persistent cognitive and psychological campaigns aim to break the Taiwanese public’s will to resist by intimidating supporters of resistance, sowing doubt and fear among the population, and generating demands to trade political concessions for peace.
“Fourth, widespread information campaigns aim to decrease the US public’s and political leadership’s willingness to support Taiwan.”
The Legislative Yuan of the Republic of China continues to address the proposed amendments to parliamentary powers put forth by the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Taiwan People's Party (TPP), while more than 60 civil organizations gather outside, demanding the withdrawal of the bills, on May 24, 2024. Song Bilong/The Epoch Times
The report warns that if the CCP succeeds in each of these areas, the feeling of abandonment among the Taiwanese public will be overwhelming, and the Taiwanese government will be forced to consider a new paradigm for cross-strait relations with China.
The report suggests that the United States and its partners must therefore abandon their sole focus on the prospect of war and reassess the comprehensive threat posed by the CCP, with a coherent countering strategy.
Mr. Yuan suggested that the CCP had already employed such strategies against Taiwan as early as when Xi Jinping came to power, with the goal of “reunification” with Taiwan.
CCP’s Influence Campaign to Undermine Taiwan
In a Feb. interview with Vision China Times, Mr. Yuan already revealed that on Jan. 27, the CCP’s Taiwan Affairs Office submitted a report to Xi Jinping outlining a strategy to take control of Taiwan’s parliament through the pro-China KMT party.
He elaborated further to The Epoch Times that Xi instructed KMT politicians Han Kuo-yu and Fu Kun-chi, along with the KMT’s legislative caucus, to attempt to take over the parliament and expand the powers of the legislative branch to undermine the presidency and the judiciary.
For some time, pro-China media and commentators in Taiwan have consistently voiced pro-CCP sentiments. According to statistics from Taiwan’s Information Environment Research Center (IORG), from July to September last year, China’s TikTok promoted the top ten Taiwanese commentators frequently cited by the CCP. Such strategies aim to shape a biased image of Taiwan, reflecting the CCP’s viewpoint.
“The CCP’s comprehensive strategy against Taiwan manifests in several areas, including recruiting a large number of Taiwanese drifters, such as commentators and scholars, to act as their spokespersons,” Mr. Yuan said. “The CCP exploits Taiwan’s free and democratic society to widely and aggressively spread pro-CCP rhetoric to undermine Taiwan’s will to defend its freedom and democracy against the CCP’s aggression.”
Xi’s ‘Lesson’ from Hong Kong
Since Xi Jinping assumed power, especially during his third term, the CCP has intensified its multifaceted offensive against Taiwan. This includes actions in international politics, diplomacy, military, economy, media, and intelligence, all aimed at achieving the ultimate goal of so-called “reunification” with Taiwan, even though Taiwan has never been ruled by the CCP.
While attention is focused on the potential for military conflict, the Institute for the Study of War’s report outlines a scenario where the CCP might succeed without warfare.
However, Mr. Yuan insists that Xi’s ultimate goal is not “peaceful reunification” but military resolution, based on lessons from Hong Kong’s “peaceful handover.”
Taiwan Air Force F-16 jet fighters during a patrolling mission at an undisclosed location in Taiwan, on May 23, 2024. Taiwan Defence Ministry/Reuters
Mr. Yuan suggested that Xi believes that Hong Kong’s peaceful handover to China failed to suppress “pro-independence forces,” which led to significant social unrest. Xi believes that a military resolution for Taiwan would allow the rapid suppression of “Taiwan independence forces” under wartime martial law, according to Mr. Yuan.
“Therefore, the international community must recognize that the CCP does not merely seek to conquer Taiwan without war but is prepared to use military means. Only the strongest counteraction on all fronts can thwart the CCP’s ambitions,” he said.
Mr. Yuan further advocated for the United States to shift from strategic ambiguity to clarity, as recently suggested by former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. This involves recognizing Taiwan’s statehood and clearly expressing America’s strategic position.
He believes that only “peace through strength” can deter the CCP from invading Taiwan.
Xin Ning and Mary Hong contributed to this report.
Jon Sun is a contributor to The Epoch Times with a focus on China-related topics.
