Japan Ex-MP Aso’s ‘Fight for Taiwan’ Remarks Align With Majority Sentiment, Experts Say

Former Japanese prime minister and current Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) vice president Taro Aso (L) speaks during his meeting with Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen (R) during his visit to Taipei on August 8, 2023. Aso warned a Taipei security forum on August 8 that the international community must "wake up" to the worsening situation surrounding the Taiwan Strait, a hotspot waterway separating the democratic island from China. STR/JIJI Press/AFP via Getty Images

Taro Aso, former Japanese Prime Minister and current vice president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), embarked on a notable visit to Taiwan on Aug. 7 to 9. The visit captured public interest as it is the most significant engagement by a member of Japan’s ruling party with Taiwan.

During his visit, Mr. Aso addressed the audience at the Ketagalan Forum and met with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen.

In a stark deviation from past patterns, the trip encountered neither criticism nor backlash from Japanese opposition factions or the left-wing press. Instead, it was met with a surprising silence. This muted response prompted interpretations from three Japanese experts.

During his address on Aug. 8, Mr. Aso emphasized the shared values binding Taiwan and Japan: freedom, democracy, human rights, and the rule of law. He outlined the vital economic ties and frequent personnel exchanges between the two nations, describing Japan and Taiwan as indispensable partners and treasured allies.

This year’s Ketagalan Forum was hosted by Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs with a focus on the 2023 Indo-Pacific Security Dialogue centered around the Taiwan Strait situation and global security issues.

Mr. Aso recalled the heightened military threats levelled by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) towards Taiwan in response to former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the island last year.

The escalation from Beijing was met with a prompt response from G7 foreign ministers, who released an urgent statement discouraging the CCP from forceful disruptions to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. Japan echoed these concerns, calling on the CCP to halt related military activities.

Mr. Aso also underscored the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait for both Japan and the global community.

“For Japan, preventing war in this region, especially the Taiwan Strait, is paramount,” Mr. Aso remarked, according to local media reports.

He identified three pillars of deterrence: capability, intent to employ that capability, and ensuring that adversaries are aware of both.

Mr. Aso further emphasized that Japan, Taiwan, and the United States must showcase a determined front, a strong deterrence force, and the resolve to fight. He highlighted that investing in defense alone isn’t adequate, and that true deterrence means the willingness to use that capability if circumstances demand and ensure that adversaries are aware of that resolve.

Koichi Hagiuda and Hiroshige Sekou, prominent LDP figures, had previously visited Taiwan last December. Amid the CCP’s mounting military provocations towards Taiwan, their visit underscored the LDP’s commitment to strengthened ties with Taiwan. Mr. Aso’s recent trip served to reinforce this position.

Taiwan’s Leadership Choice: A Matter of Critical Importance

During his visit, Mr. Aso engaged in a profound dialogue with Vice President Lai Ching-te (William Lai), a front-runner in Taiwan’s upcoming presidential elections. As per a report from Sankei News, Mr. Aso encouraged to Mr. Lai the paramount importance of a leader’s resolve to deploy Taiwan’s strength judiciously for its self-governance and defense. Furthermore, they broached potential strategies in the event of a conflict in Taiwan.

Taiwan vice president and chairman of ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) William Lai gestures during his speech at the DPP headquarters in Taipei on April 12, 2023. Mr. Lai will represent the DPP running for presidential elections in 2024. Sam Yeh/AFP via Getty Images

Reflecting on his discussions with Ms. Tsai Ing-wen, Mr. Aso remarked, “Vice President Lai Ching-te’s assurance on his determination to defend Taiwan provided me with a sense of relief.”

Post the meeting, while addressing the media at his hotel, Mr. Aso articulated his concerns. He warned of the perils Taiwan could face if they elect a leader inclined to forge ties with the CCP. The outcome of such elections would not only reverberate in Taiwan but also significantly influence Japan. He expressed his hope for the emergence of a dependable successor committed to preserving the status quo based on liberal democratic values in the upcoming elections.

Aso’s Remarks Meet with Little Domestic Opposition

While Mr. Aso’s “fight for Taiwan” remarks did not significantly shake Japanese political discourse, they weren’t entirely without detractors. Katsuya Okada, secretary-general of Japan’s center-left Constitutional Democratic Party, cautioned against the so-called brash pronouncement. Similarly, Koike Akira, secretary-general of the far-left Japanese Communist Party, argued that Mr. Aso’s words deviated from Japan’s strictly defensive stance and were incendiary in nature.

On Aug. 9, chief cabinet secretary of Japan Hirokazu Matsuno weighed in on Mr. Aso’s comments during a press briefing. While he refrained from directly addressing remarks made by individual politicians or parties, Mr. Matsuno emphasized the paramount importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait for Japan’s security and global harmony.

Japanese newspaper Zakzak (Evening Fuji) engaged three academic experts for their insights on Mr. Aso’s speech in Taiwan and its repercussions.

Hirotaka Yamashita, ex-director-general of the Japan Self-Defense Forces Central Region and currently a guest professor at Chiba University of Science, remarked that given the absence of formal diplomatic ties between Japan and Taiwan, Mr. Aso’s visit to Taiwan was unparalleled. By candidly discussing deterrence, he broached a sensitive subject that might provoke the CCP. Given Japan’s bolstered defense exercises in its southwest islands recently, which form part of the first island chain surrounding China and nations in the region have contesting historic claims to, Mr. Aso’s message aligns with Japan’s strategic interests—alongside its allies—in ensuring that the CCP doesn’t come to set the rules in the wider Pacific.

Screenshot from Google Maps showing the first island chain, taken on Sept. 23, 2021. Screenshot via Google maps

Prominent Japanese commentator, Shi Ping, also known as Seki Hei, emphasized the need for democracies to present a united stance in enhancing Taiwan’s defenses. He considered Mr. Aso’s remarks timely and apt as Taiwan may harbor reservations about Japan’s commitment to its defense in the case of attacks from the mainland.

Mr. Aso’s address aimed to assuage such concerns, he said. Moreover, in the run-up to the Taiwanese elections, his words were a clarion call against the influence of pro-CCP elements in global politics. Mr. Shi also highlighted the evolution in political rhetoric: where once speaking of the “resolve to fight” over Taiwan would have elicited strong rebukes, the current criticisms are more muted, with left-wing media largely holding its peace.

Youichi Shimada, emeritus professor at Fukui Prefectural University, drew parallels between the CCP’s behavior to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, suggesting that a well-defined intent to defend one’s nation is now a recognized international norm.

He posited that the subdued reaction to Mr. Aso’s remarks stems from an acute national awareness among Japanese of the existential threat the CCP’s ideology presents. He added that as the LDP’s deputy leader, Mr. Aso’s declarations have gravitas, impacting both the party and governmental directions, like prospective joint military drills between Japan, the United States, and Taiwan.