Chinese Regime Releases Fraudulent GDP Growth Figures Amid Economic Decline: Experts

An electronic display showing the China GDP indexes is seen on a street in Shanghai, China, on Oct. 16, 2021. Aly Song/Reuters

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) publishes data that suggest stable economic growth, but some analysts assert that the regime cannot substantiate these numbers.

China’s economy is on a downward trajectory, facing challenges such as a real estate crisis, low consumer confidence, deflation, high youth unemployment, and a decline in foreign investment.

Fabricated Data

Li Jun, an independent Chinese TV producer, said on NTD’s Chinese language program “Pinnacle View” that Henan Province’s GDP in 2023 was anticipated to have a negative growth rate; however, the regime manipulated the previous year’s figures to create the illusion of positive growth in 2023.

“At the end of 2022, Henan announced that its GDP reached 6.1 trillion yuan [about $850], which was big news and an achievement at that time,” he said. “Now, they cut that figure by more than 300 billion yuan [about $41.7 billion] to show that the GDP growth rate reached 4.1 percent [in 2023].”

Mr. Li claimed that the actual GDP growth for 2022 was never as high as the reported figure. Since the CCP needed to show economic growth for 2023, the regime slashed the GDP figure for 2022, he said, adding that the numbers were manipulated.

“Other provinces have done the same tactic, like Fujian, Hunan, and Jiangxi, which reduced their [2022 GDP growth] figures by 130 billion yuan [about $18 billion], 110 billion yuan [about $15.3 billion), and 80 billion yuan [$11.1 billion], respectively,” Mr. Li said.

“These figures reveal another problem. These four provinces reduced their 2022 GDP by nearly 630 billion yuan [about $87.6 billion] altogether. However, the [CCP] state claimed that they over-calculated 500 billion yuan [about $69.6 billion] in 2022. So once again, these numbers don’t add up.”

Concealing Data

Frank Tian Xie, a business professor at the University of South Carolina Aiken, said on the show that the CCP began publishing fraudulent figures during China’s “reform and opening up” in the late 1970s. Before that, China had a planned economy, which did not measure the economy based on GDP growth. After the switch to measuring economic growth by GDP, the CCP used the figures to gauge the political performance of Party officials at local levels and attract foreign investment. These two factors incentivized all levels of government to manipulate the data.

Mr. Xie explained, “Therefore, in the past two to three decades, China produced very attractive growth figures to attract foreign investment to China, but now the foreign investors have stopped believing such figures and have started to withdraw.”

He said that before the collapse of the Soviet Union, American economists were estimating that the Soviet economy was 60 percent to 70 percent of that of the United States. It was only after the collapse of the Soviet Union that people realized that the Soviet economy was only 10 percent of that of the United States.

“Since the so-called reform and opening up of China, the CCP has never allowed foreign market research firms to conduct independent research in China,” Mr. Xie noted. “So why does the CCP not allow foreign market research firms to conduct surveys in China?

“It is because if they use objective and accurate survey methods, they can expose China’s real GDP figures, inflation figures, per capita income figures, etc. This is why the CCP requires all foreign firms to cooperate with a local organization under China’s Ministry of Public Security. It allows the CCP to continue to falsify the data,” the professor said.

Control

Guo Jun, president of the Hong Kong edition of The Epoch Times, said on “Pinnacle View” that China’s National Bureau of Statistics is the CCP’s political tool. The CCP elites in Beijing set the growth figure, and all levels of government and departments must comply with it.

“First, Beijing sets the targets. Then, the local governments at various levels create the [GDP growth] figures according to the targets. The adjustment of these figures by the statistics bureaus is left to their discretion,” she said.

Ms. Guo explained that apart from GDP growth, the planned births, population data, employment data, and even the number of deaths are all subject to the regime’s political agenda, allowing manipulation of this information. The centralized power and the top-down hierarchy of the CCP foster an environment where political needs dominate all aspects of the regime, she said, adding that low-level officials are obliged to unconditionally follow orders from the top, with no room for negotiation.

Shi Shan, senior writer and contributor to the Chinese language edition of The Epoch Times, said on the show that there has always been a problem of legitimacy for the CCP’s top leaders. The CCP system cannot bring legitimacy to its authoritarian rule, he said, so it has to rely on propaganda to maintain its power.

“Under the CCP, there are no ethical leaders at the highest level. Information from CCP elites is fabricated, leading to falsified data throughout the regime, creating a chaotic situation from the top to the bottom,” he added.

Michael Zhuang contributed to this report.