The Chinese communist regime could use the South China Sea to gauge the U.S. response to its allies as the regime extends military expansion in the waterway, which is vital to the global economy, according to experts.
In a June 17 encounter, the Philippines said its personnel were injured, and vessels were damaged after a clash between boats from Manila and Beijing near Second Thomas Shoal, part of the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea.
The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) defense ministry said the Philippine side “deliberately and dangerously” approached its naval ships, causing the collision. The Philippines’ foreign ministry blamed the Chinese authorities’ “illegal and aggressive actions” for the accident.
“The Chinese have been pushing, pushing, pushing on the Philippines for a long time,” she told The Epoch Times on June 22.
Former Philippine President Rodrigo Roa Duterte pursued a pro-China policy and switched his position between the United States and China quite a few times, which led to the deterioration of relations between the Philippines and the United States. That changed in 2022 when Ferdinand Marcos Jr. took office.
While Mr. Marcos wants to deter the CCP, Ms. Teufel Dreyer cautioned that he has few resources to accomplish that.
“He does want to push back,” she said of Mr. Marcos. “But he has very limited means to do so. And he is also not sure how much he can count on the United States, because the United States is involved, although not formally involved, in one war in Ukraine versus Russia and another war in Israel versus Hamas.”
All-out Invasion?
After the maritime conflict between the Philippines and China, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken had a phone call with the Philippine Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo on June 19, during which he emphasized that the United States’ “ironclad commitments to the Philippines under the Mutual Defense Treaty,” the State Department said.In addition, he noted that the United States does not have a base like Subic Bay in the region, which will cause certain implementation difficulties. Subic Bay was once an important outpost of the U.S. military in the South China Sea and was closed in 1992.
A similar viewpoint was expressed by Ms. Teufel Dreyer.
She believes that the United States will invoke the treaty if the Chinese regime initiates an “all-out invasion.”
‘Testing the Water’
It’s possible that the regime uses its military aggression in the South China Sea to test the potential for conflict in the Taiwan Strait and gauge the U.S. resolve to defend its allies, Ms. Teufel Dreyer said. However, she said the situation in Taiwan is “very different” from that in the Philippines.Taiwan “has shown itself much more willing and capable of fighting back than the Philippines,” she said.
Manila, however, intends to rely on the help from its allies.
Mrs. Dreyer said that the Philippines habitually let the United States stand up for them. “In other words, they will allow the United States to fight with China, but [they] basically stayed out of it.”
That’s why she believes the United States has “a lot more at stake” in Taiwan than it does in the Philippines.
“China has no problem with testing the waters” in the South China Sea, and to see what the U.S. reactions would be, she added.