WASHINGTON—Taiwan’s Jan. 13 election, seen as one of the most significant in recent history, captured the world’s attention because of its far-reaching implications for U.S.–China relations.
Many in the international community have seen the election as a referendum on the island’s sentiment toward communist China and the United States.
When the news broke that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which favors stronger ties with the United States, had won the presidency for another four years, attention shifted to the White House.
A few hours later, President Joe Biden stepped out of his residence, broke from his routine, and took some questions from reporters before heading to the presidential retreat at Camp David in Maryland.
As expected, the first question directed to him was his reaction to Taiwan’s election.
The president, exercising caution and mindful of his previous remarks that had enraged the regime in Beijing, offered a brief comment:
“We do not support independence.”
Later, the U.S. State Department issued a statement congratulating current Taiwanese Vice President Lai Ching-te, the DPP candidate also known as William Lai, on his victory in the presidential election.
“The United States is committed to maintaining cross-Strait peace and stability and the peaceful resolution of differences, free from coercion and pressure,” the statement reads.
Leaders in Congress and many U.S. lawmakers also released statements hailing Mr. Lai’s historic victory.
Many saw the outcome of this crucial election as a sign of Taiwanese resistance to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which tried to sway the election through threats and media campaigns.
Gordon Chang, a senior fellow at the Gatestone Institute and author of “The Coming Collapse of China,” characterized President Biden’s response as “weak” and wished the U.S. president had displayed more strength.
“I think he was just trying to placate Xi Jinping,” Mr. Chang told The Epoch Times, referring to the CCP leader. “People in Taiwan, who are barely 100 miles from this large, menacing power, aren’t afraid of China. Why should the president of the United States be afraid of China?”
President Biden’s brief statement supports Beijing’s stance and made things worse, according to Rupert Hammond-Chambers, president of the US–Taiwan Business Council.
“I think it’s an unnecessary concession,“ he told The Epoch Times. ”It undermines America’s long-term position on Taiwan’s sovereignty.”
China claims Taiwan as part of its territory, despite Taiwan being a sovereign nation with a democratically elected government. The CCP has vowed to conquer Taiwan by force if necessary.
President Biden has said on multiple occasions that the U.S. military would support Taiwan if the Chinese regime were to launch an invasion of the island, departing from the long-standing U.S. policy of “strategic ambiguity,” which is to be deliberately vague about what Washington would do in the event of an attack. Administration officials have repeatedly walked back his comments, claiming that the U.S. approach hasn’t changed.
Threats and Election Meddling
Leading up to the election, China exerted significant pressure on Taiwan through various means, including the deployment of spy balloons and engaging in psychological warfare.Since last month, Taiwan’s Defense Ministry has reported dozens of Chinese spy balloons crossing the sensitive Taiwan Strait that separates the island from China, with some passing directly over the island.
Beijing has long viewed the DPP with hostility, seeing the party and its agenda as roadblocks to its path to the island’s “reunification” with the mainland. The communist regime has favored the main opposition, the Kuomintang Party (KMT), which sees Beijing as a lesser threat to the island’s national security.
On Jan. 13, the ruling party DPP won a historic third term, with Mr. Lai securing more than 5.5 million votes, or about 40 percent of the ballot. His running mate, Hsiao Bi-khim, who stepped down as Taiwan’s de facto ambassador to the United States in November 2023, will be the new vice president.
Hou Yu-ih, current New Taipei City mayor and KMT’s presidential candidate, finished second with about 4.6 million votes, while Ko Wen-je, former Taipei mayor and presidential candidate for the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), a relatively new party created in 2019, came in third with about 3.6 million votes.
Former Undersecretary of State Keith Krach praised the election results, seeing them as a sign of the Taiwanese people endorsing continued U.S.–Taiwan relations.
“In the face of persistent threats and meddling from the Chinese government, Taiwanese citizens stood resolutely behind their democracy and sent a clear message to the rest of the world,” he told The Epoch Times in an email.
In September 2020, under President Donald Trump, Mr. Krach became the highest-ranking State Department official to visit Taiwan since the United States established diplomatic relations with Beijing in 1979.
According to Mr. Krach, as long as Taiwan remains free, the CCP will continue to cause tensions in the Taiwan Strait.
Prior to the election, the Chinese regime went so far as to describe the vote as a critical choice between “peace and war.”
Election Day marked a significant moment for Taiwan’s democracy, says Mu-Jen Wu, a Taiwanese American living in New York.
He and his family are strong advocates of Taiwanese independence and believe that President Tsai Ing-wen has led the country well during the past eight years.
“The election result is a validation of President Tsai’s policies: less reliance on China and continuation of de facto independence without declaration,” Mr. Wu told The Epoch Times.
Hung Parliament
The DPP failed to secure an absolute majority in the Legislative Yuan in the election, leaving no party with a dominant position in the 113-seat body.Mr. Hammond-Chambers acknowledged the challenges posed by a divided chamber for the incoming president.
“It’s going to be more complicated. There’s going to be more negotiations, and critically, it’s going to take more time to process whatever legislation the two sides agree to work on,” he said.
It’s also uncertain how the split parliament will affect Taiwan’s relations with the United States and other countries.
If the KMT-controlled legislature, for example, doesn’t support increasing defense spending or tries to shorten conscription to four months from one year, it won’t be well-received in the United States, Mr. Hammond-Chambers said.
The DPP defeated the KMT by a landslide in the 2016 presidential and legislative elections and has been in power since.
The KMT is the heir of Chiang Kai-shek’s government, which ruled much of China from 1928 until it fled to Taiwan in 1949 after losing the Chinese Civil War against the CCP. The KMT ruled the island under martial law until 1987 before overseeing Taiwan’s transition to democracy. Currently, the KMT is known to advocate for closer relations with Beijing.
What Comes Next?
In Washington, many expect that China will be unnerved by the election results and will react in some way.Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific program, believes that Beijing will refuse to resume official contact with Taiwan’s government, which has already been suspended for the past eight years.
“Xi’s desire to preserve the fragile stability in US–China relations that was achieved at the Woodside summit with President Joe Biden in November will probably be one factor that will deter him from taking exceedingly harsh measures against Taiwan, at least for the remainder of this year,” Ms. Glaser said in a note.
“Nevertheless, Chinese pressure on Taiwan can be expected to continue and may increase, although use of military force to punish Taiwan or compel unification is unlikely.”
Mr. Chang said Beijing’s threats of war against the people of Taiwan before the election were counterproductive to its goals.
“I don’t think China is in any position to use force to annex Taiwan. So at least for the moment, I think that’s just huffing and puffing,” he said.
Coordinating a comprehensive military operation, including air, land, and sea, is a very challenging task for any government, according to Mr. Chang.
“China has never done that in its history,” he said, noting that Xi was concerned about the probable failure of such an operation.
If such a failure occurs, it could spell the end for the CCP, according to Mr. Chang.
“I think Xi Jinping doesn’t trust his military,“ he said. ”We can see that with all the mass purges and disappearances. So I don’t think that Xi believes that his military is prepared to fight.”
For U.S. companies, China’s response is a cause for concern due to its potential to raise costs and disrupt business operations.
Mr. Hammond-Chambers expects that the CCP’s grey zone activities, including economic coercion, military exercises, cyber threats, and other tactics, will intensify again.
He says the crucial question is how the Biden administration will react to China’s response to the DPP’s victory, and he’s urging Washington to take action beyond mere verbal responses when addressing Beijing’s threats.
Is Taiwan Ready for War?
While many experts and policymakers don’t see an invasion of Taiwan as imminent, they argue that the most effective way for the United States to deter China from attacking the island is to boost its combat readiness.Jim Fanell, a retired U.S. Navy captain and former director of intelligence and information operations for the U.S. Pacific Fleet, believes that Taiwan hasn’t given enough attention to its national defense. He thinks Xi and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have the intent, political resolve, and capabilities to launch an invasion of Taiwan.
Since 2020, China has intensified its military activity around Taiwan, with hundreds of aircraft flying near the island each month. Despite this surge in military activity, both the United States and Taiwan have responded cautiously for fear of offending China and sparking a wider invasion, Mr. Fanell told The Epoch Times.
“That was wrong thinking,” he said, noting that the necessary action now is for the United States to collaborate with Japan and other regional allies to enhance Taiwan’s defense capabilities.
According to Mr. Fanell, the U.S. military should also be well-prepared for a conflict with China.
The U.S. Defense Department is currently facing a crisis regarding its ability to develop, build, and mass produce weapons, he said.
Mr. Fanell pointed out that while the United States has devoted substantial time and effort to ground wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria over the past 35 years to combat terrorism, it hasn’t sufficiently prepared its military for a naval conflict against China.
He also believes that the current stance of strategic ambiguity must cease.
“The United States needs to provide and present itself in terms of military posture to ensure that Beijing has no doubt about the U.S. commitment,” Mr. Fanell said.
Karla Jones, a Taiwan expert and senior director at the American Legislative Exchange Council, concurred, stating that showing a clear stance is the best way to prevent conflict with Beijing.
“I believe that the best way to avoid conflict is to show clarity of purpose, and that’s where strategic ambiguity has failed. It’s led China to believe that Taiwan isn’t as important to America as it is,” she told The Epoch Times.
“America takes its partnership with Taiwan seriously and takes the Taiwan Relations Act seriously.”
