China May Have Deployed More Long-Range Nuclear Warheads Than US: Congressional Letter

Military vehicles carrying DF-5B intercontinental ballistic missiles participate in a military parade at Tiananmen Square in Beijing on Oct. 1, 2019. Greg Baker/AFP via Getty Images

News Analysis

China likely has more nuclear warheads equipped to its long-range missiles than the United States, as indicated by the disclosure of a classified briefing made to Congress by the Pentagon’s top nuclear commander.

Adm. Charles Richard, commander of U.S. Strategic Command, notified Congress that China’s military had surpassed the United States in at least one of three areas regarding nuclear weapons deployment, according to a letter shared on Twitter by Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.).

Richard delivered a notification to Congress as required by Section 1648 of Public Law 117-81 (pdf), according to the letter, which was also signed by Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.), and Reps. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) and Doug Lamborn (R-Colo.).

That law requires U.S. Strategic Command to inform Congress if and when China surpasses the United States in the number of its active intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), the number of its ICBM launchers, or the number of nuclear warheads equipped to its ICBMs.

“I’ve said it many times—we’ve only seen the tip of the iceberg when it comes to China’s growing military might,” Inhofe said in a tweet accompanying the letter.

“The admin must be open and honest with the American people about the threat Beijing poses to global order and our way of life.”

The Mystery of China’s Warheads

Though Richard’s classified notification to Congress could mean that the Chinese communist regime has numerically surpassed the United States in any of the three aforementioned areas, recent reports make two of these scenarios unlikely.

The Pentagon’s recently released China Military Power Report stated that the regime’s arsenal included approximately 300 ICBMs and launchers. It also estimated that China had surpassed 400 operational nuclear warheads.

The United States, meanwhile, can deploy up to 1,550 nuclear warheads under the terms of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty but only maintains 400 Minuteman III ICBMs, each of which can carry just one nuclear warhead.

Thus, given the unlikeliness that China created 100 new ICBMs or launchers within the month since the Pentagon published its report, Richard’s notification likely means that the regime has equipped its ICBMs with additional nuclear warheads, surpassing the 400 warheads the United States’ ICBMs are equipped with.

This is possible because many of China’s ICBMs utilize multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs), meaning each missile is equipped with multiple nuclear warheads, all of which can strike different targets.

The Rocket Force, under the Eastern Theater Command of China's People's Liberation Army (PLA), fires live missiles into the waters near Taiwan, from an undisclosed location in China, on Aug. 4, 2022. Eastern Theater Command/Handout via Reuters

In contrast to the United States’ Minuteman missiles, most of China’s ICBMs are capable of equipping three to five MIRVs, according to the Pentagon’s report, and the regime is building hundreds more silos capable of storing its newest DF-41 missile.

Some analysts believe that each DF-41 missile could be equipped with as many as 10 nuclear warheads. However, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists has published studies suggesting that the missiles likely carry three nuclear warheads with several additional munitions designed to help penetrate enemy defenses.

Relatedly, a 2021 report (pdf) by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) found that the rapid expansion of the regime’s MIRVs had increased the number of nuclear warheads capable of striking the U.S. homeland.

“Due to increases in China’s arsenal of ICBM missiles, launchers assigned to its ICBM brigades, and MIRV technology, the number of warheads that can be mounted on ICBMs threatening the United States is expanding,” the report said.

There has not yet been a clarification on the reasoning for Richard’s notification. Such may be published in the near future, however, as Inhofe and his colleagues said in their letter that Richard’s notification failed to meet the requirements of Section 1648, which states that the notification must include an unclassified paragraph detailing the reason for the notification.

“While we appreciate your timely submission of the classified Section 1648 notification, the statute explicitly requires an unclassified determination, which was not provided,” the letter said.

“We therefore do not consider the requirement under PL 117-81 to be satisfied and encourage both you and your successor to work with relevant departments and agencies to fulfill the requirement.”

Likewise, Fischer said that the release of an unclassified summary was necessary to ensure that Americans fully understood the threat posed by China’s communist regime.

“The American people have a right to know about the severity of the threats we face—including China’s dramatic nuclear buildup. Sharing declassified information will help the public better understand the importance of investing in our national defense,” the senator said in an email.

The Growing Nuclear Threat

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which rules China as a single-party state, has invested heavily in expanding and modernizing its nuclear arsenal in recent years. The Pentagon estimates that the CCP will have at least 1,000 nuclear weapons by 2030 and 1,500 by 2035.

CCP leadership has refused to engage in talks about its nuclear expansion with the United States, and lawmakers have warned that the regime is uninterested in nonproliferation.

It remains difficult for Western analysts to gauge the size and quality of the regime’s nuclear arsenal due to a combination of the CCP’s secretive practices and its strategic doctrines. For example, the regime colocates its nuclear missiles with its conventional missiles, storing them together in the same silo fields. This means that analysts can never be sure if a silo contains a nuclear or conventional missile at any given time.

According to the USCC’s 2021 report, the CCP is also doubling the number of its ICBM launchers in some units, and it is believed that as many as half of the regime’s 40 missile brigades are nuclear-capable.

Experts have suggested that the CCP’s growing nuclear arsenal and warming ties with Vladimir Putin’s Russia have created an unprecedented threat to U.S. national security, as the nation must now attempt to deter two near-peer nuclear adversaries simultaneously.

A spokesperson for U.S. Strategic Command said in an email that an unclassified message had now been sent to Inhofe and the other lawmakers.

“We are currently working with the intelligence community to determine what, if any, of the classified memo can be unclassified and provided,” the spokesperson said.