The Russo-Ukraine war is upsetting the geopolitical balance of power in more ways than one.
The decision of the Western world to entirely turn its back on Russia will facilitate Moscow’s turn to the east—this much is sure. Increasing the country’s economic dependence on China as Western markets become more hostile will strengthen Beijing’s geopolitical hand; however, this expanding influence has more to do with than just the bilateral relationship between Moscow and Beijing.
Contrary to the impression conveyed by Western mainstream media, many developing countries are not as eager as the United States and Europe to condemn Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine. Instead, some have taken the lead of China and opted for a morally ambiguous analysis of the situation.
This isn’t reserved only for the usual suspect “rogue nations” such as Iran and North Korea. India, the world’s largest democracy and second-largest country by population, has agreed to find a common position with China regarding the current ongoing situation in Ukraine.
India has indeed been a traditional ally of Russia in the modern era, but New Delhi has not enjoyed overwhelmingly positive relations with Beijing as of late. The ongoing border war over the Kashmir region between Pakistan and India has seen China often come out to condemn the latter. As such, the decision of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to decide to use the Ukraine crisis as a way to mend relations with India is significant.
This demonstrates how China is attempting to reap the most significant possible geopolitical advantage from the ongoing Ukraine crisis.
While Brussels and Washington would like to cut Moscow off from the entire international community, the reality is that organizations such as BRICS are outside of their control. More than this, the fact that these nations find themselves in a similar stage of development means that, at least economically, they actually share more in common than they do with Western Europe or the United States.
Joining in on the moral condemnation of one or more of their partners adds unneeded animosity between one another. As they say, strength in numbers—it is better to have a united front against developed Western economies, which hold the financial and economic leverage to pressure smaller countries.
However, Beijing and India have demonstrated that they can provide large and affluent markets for products that would otherwise be destined for the developed world. In particular, both have stepped in to arrange lucrative deals for Russian energy exports.
This ability to flout the dictates of the major Western economies has not always been available. China’s (and in part India’s) tacit support of Russia in an unprecedented 21st-century extraterritorial military operation in Europe means Beijing can present itself as a bastion of support for the economically downtrodden countries of the world—an example of defiance to the dictates of their former colonizers.
The failure of the United States to comprehend this fact has led to our overreliance on China. We are now experiencing the painful reality of zero-sum power politics, in which the relative strengthening of one country equates to the weakening of its competitor.
