US Dollar Index Hits Highest Level in 2 Years, Euro Falls

US dollar and euro banknotes in an illustration taken on July 17, 2022. Reuters/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

Strong labor data and positive expectations about the incoming Trump administration pushed the U.S. dollar to a two-year high on Thursday.

The U.S. dollar iIndex hit a high of 109.53 on Jan. 2, the first trading day of the year, and the highest since November 2022. The jump came as data released on Thursday by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that initial jobless claims hit an eight-month low, suggesting a robust labor market, which is a positive sign for the overall economy. The dollar index was trading slightly lower on Friday at 108.96 as of 08:30 a.m. EST.

The dollar index increase is also supported by investor confidence in the upcoming Trump administration, which assumes power this month. According to a recent survey by consulting company Teneo, “global CEOs and investors are optimistic about the economic impact of a second Trump administration, outweighing concerns about tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and trade barriers.”

In fact, “50 percent of global CEOs are accelerating activities in areas such as domestic and international investment and hiring based on the outcome of the 2024 U.S. election,” it said.

While the dollar strengthened, the euro and sterling declined on Thursday. The euro fell to its lowest level in more than two years while the sterling declined to its lowest in eight months.

A Dec. 17 report from JP Morgan predicts the U.S. dollar to reach even new highs over the coming months.

“November’s election outcome has given way to lower global growth expectations, wider growth gaps between the U.S. and the rest of the world, and higher terminal federal funds rate forecasts for 2025—the perfect trifecta of bullish U.S. dollar cyclical impulse,” said Meera Chandan, co-head of Global FX Strategy at the company.

“These are early first-order reactions that may give way to deeper rethinks once the full set of Trump administration policies are known next year [2025], but for now, they constitute a solid economic rationale for carrying a long U.S. dollar stance into the first quarter of 2025.”

JP Morgan sees the euro’s outlook as bearish, noting the eurozone is especially vulnerable to trade conflicts. And while sterling was the best-performing currency against the dollar last year, such an outperformance is not expected this year, it said.

US Economy Performance in 2025

With President-elect Donald Trump set to take power in less than three weeks, there are mixed views about how things could shape up for the American economy.

According to a Dec. 9 post by Morgan Stanley, markets are “bullish on Trump’s second term, hoping for tax cuts and better growth.”

“We expect no net stimulus and a decent size hit from tariffs and immigration. This should be bullish for bonds as the Fed continues cutting, but could be a disappointment for frothy stocks,” it said.

Regarding tariffs, the most likely outcome is a 20 percent hike on Chinese imports and on vehicles from Mexico and the European Union, Morgan Stanley said.

It predicts the U.S. Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates to a range of 3 percent 3.5 percent by the end of 2025.

S&P Global is forecasting the U.S. economy to grow by 2 percent in 2025 and 2026, following an estimated growth of 2.7 percent last year.

The company sees inflation to likely remain above the 2 percent level for “longer than we previously thought.”

Goldman Sachs predicts the U.S. economy to “beat expectations” this year.

“The U.S. economy is in a good place,” said David Mericle, an economist with the company.

“Recession fears have diminished, inflation is trending back toward 2 percent, and the labor market has rebalanced but remains strong.”

While Trump’s policy changes are likely to be “significant,” Mericle does not see these actions changing the trajectory of the economy substantially.

Goldman foresees the Fed reducing interest rates to a range of 3.25–3.50 percent, with the U.S. GDP predicted to grow by 2.5 percent.

There have been three consecutive quarters of economic growth in the first nine months of 2024—1.6 percent in the first quarter, 3 percent in the second, and 3.1 percent in the third.