US CEO Confidence Increases Sharply From Cautious Optimism to Confident Optimism

A hiring sign at the Fashion Center at Pentagon City shopping mall in Arlington, Va., on Jan 3, 2024. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

Optimism among American CEOs surged in the first quarter of this year from the previous quarter, with concerns about various business risks easing down, according to a new survey from the think tank The Conference Board.

The “Measure of CEO Confidence,” an assessment of the U.S. economy from the perspective of U.S. chief executives, rose by nine points in the first quarter of 2025 to 60—the highest level in three years—the think tank said in a Feb. 20 statement. This is the first time since early 2022 that the index scored a value “well above 50,” suggesting that CEOs were moving away from the cautious optimism from last year to a more “confident optimism.” The survey was conducted among 134 CEOs.

The improvement in CEO confidence in the first quarter was “significant and broad-based,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist of global indicators at The Conference Board.

“All components of the Measure improved, as CEOs were substantially more optimistic about current economic conditions as well as about future economic conditions—both overall and in their own industries.

“There was a notable increase in the share of CEOs expecting to increase investment plans and a decline in the share expecting to downsize investment plans. Still, a majority of CEOs indicated no revisions to their capital spending plans over the next 12 months.”

Roger W. Ferguson Jr., chair emeritus of The Conference Board, said CEOs reported that concerns regarding a wide range of business risks had eased.

He said fewer chief executives ranked regulatory uncertainty, supply chain disruptions, financial and economic risks, and cyber threats as “high-impact” risks in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the fourth quarter of 2024.

While executives expressed optimism, many businesses reported challenges. A recent poll by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) found that even though owners were optimistic about future business conditions, uncertainty was rising.

“Hiring challenges continue to frustrate Main Street owners as they struggle to find qualified workers to fill their many open positions. Meanwhile, fewer plan capital investments as they prepare for the months ahead,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg.

Impact of Tariffs

The optimism among businesses comes amid concerns that President Donald Trump’s various tariffs could negatively affect the country’s trade and economy.

Earlier this month, the Trump administration imposed an additional 10 percent tariff on imports from China. A proposed 25 percent tariff on Mexican and Canadian imports was paused for a 30-day period. Steel and Aluminum imports now face 25 percent tariffs.

Trump signed a plan to institute reciprocal tariffs on America’s trading partners.

“For many years, the U.S. has been treated unfairly by other countries, both friend and foe. This system will immediately bring fairness and prosperity back into the previously complex and unfair system of trade,” he said.

This week, Trump announced plans for new tariffs on lumber and other forest products. He also revealed plans for 25 percent tariffs on imported cars and similar duties on chips and drugs.

According to the Tax Foundation, the tariffs imposed on China are estimated to reduce long-run U.S. GDP by 0.1 percent, and the tariffs proposed on Mexico and Canada by 0.3 percent. These estimates do not take into account “foreign retaliation.”

The 2018–2019 tariffs implemented by the Trump administration and carried forward by the subsequent Biden administration “raised prices and reduced output and employment, producing a net negative impact on the U.S. economy,” the foundation said.

U.S. Chamber of Commerce Senior Vice President John Murphy called the imposition of tariffs “unprecedented,” warning that such a move “will only raise prices for American families and upend supply chains.”

However, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller does not expect Trump’s tariff push to significantly impact inflation.

“My baseline view is that any imposition of tariffs will only modestly increase prices and in a non-persistent manner,” he said in a recent speech.

“I concede that the effects of tariffs could be larger than I anticipate, depending on how large they are and how they are implemented. But we also need to remember that it is possible that other policies under discussion could have positive supply effects and put downward pressure on inflation.”