Billionaire Investor Ray Dalio Warns US, China ‘On the Brink of War’

Ray Dalio speaks onstage during TechCrunch Disrupt San Francisco 2019 at Moscone Convention Center in San Francisco, Calif., on Oct. 2, 2019. Kimberly White/Getty Images for TechCrunch

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio has recently warned that the United States and China are “on the brink of war and are beyond the ability to talk.”

“I want to emphasize that by saying that they are on the brink, I don’t mean to say that they will necessarily go over the brink,” Dalio shared on LinkedIn. “I mean to say that they are very close to crossing red lines that, if crossed, will irrevocably push them over the brink into some type of war that damages these two countries and causes damage to the world order in severe and irrevocable ways—like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine did for Russia and the world, just much bigger.”

According to him, over the next 18 months, the two countries will probably act more hostile toward one another.

His remarks came after his last two visits to the communist country. The billionaire stressed that although he has been visiting China for almost four decades, his two most recent 13-day trips there offered him a fresh outlook. He pointed out that the lack of communication between the two powers has worsened the situation.

“As for the two sides not being able to talk with each other, what I mean is that discussions about big, important things have become exchanges of accusations that worsen relations rather than help them, so it is worse to have the discussions than to avoid them. While there are some tactical discussions aimed at preventing slipping over the edge into war (e.g., on topics like how to deal with Taiwan President Tsai’s visit to the U.S.), and both sides agree that these tactical exchanges are good things, there is growing belief that the unavoidable trajectory is toward war,” he stated.

Coming War

Rick Fisher, a senior fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, shares Dalio’s position.

In an interview on NTD, The Epoch Times’ sister outlet, Fisher said that the appearance of China’s green lasers over Hawaii in January signals a coming war.

“This weather satellite passing over Hawaii, shooting its lasers, its atmospheric measuring lasers, down from on high is very much a signal to the United States that if there is a confrontation over the future of democratic Taiwan, they are ready to target American military forces, which will definitely impact American civilian lives in the state of Hawaii,” Fisher said.

Not Imminent

However, some experts and mostly U.S. officials have dismissed the view of an inevitable military confrontation between the two leading powers.

American Enterprise Institute senior fellow Zack Cooper said the billionaire’s comments don’t align with U.S. officials’ knowledge.

“I just don’t think he’s right. I actually think that what we’ve seen, as U.S. officials say recently, including the head of the Indo-Pacific Command, that, yes, we have to be worried about a conflict, but that they don’t see one happening in the near term,” Cooper said on Fox News’ “Mornings With Maria” on April 28.

“There’s no reason to think we’re on the brink of war right now,” he added.

Cooper seemingly referred to Adm. John Aquilino, head of the U.S. military’s Indo-Pacific Command, who recently said that a catastrophic conflict between China and the United States for the future freedom of Taiwan is not inevitable.

“War is not inevitable, and it’s not imminent,” Aquilino said during an April 18 House Armed Services Committee hearing. “However, this decade presents a period of increased risk.

“Conflict in the Indo-Pacific is not inevitable. But we cannot rest on our past accomplishments to secure a peaceful future.”

Aquilino pointed to the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) de facto alliance with Vladimir Putin’s Russia and its increasing willingness to support destabilizing actions from powers like North Korea and Iran as evidence of the ongoing challenge posed by the regime.

“Two large authoritarian nations coming together in an attempt to change the world order in ways that are beneficial to authoritarian governments [as opposed to] the rest of the world,” Aquilino said. “That’s a pretty concerning space to be in.”

He added that competition, not complacency, would be vital in deterring a conflict in the coming years.

In Cooper’s opinion, Dalio’s comments are more about his concern about the potential U.S. sanction on China.

“I think what Dalio’s probably worried about is that there are going to be restrictions on U.S. investors that are putting money into China, especially into areas that have dual-use implications that could go into high-end computing, that could eventually help the Chinese military,” he said.

“And I think there is going to be real restrictions coming out of both the White House and Congress that will affect investors like Dalio,” Cooper said.

Andrew Thornebrooke contributed to this report.