Xi Jinping is the winner, whether or not Vladimir Putin massively invades Ukraine any time soon.
By surrounding Ukraine with troops, naval forces, and military “exercises” to the point of full readiness for an all-out military invasion, Putin and his partner in crime Xi have learned what the United States and allies are willing to do—and not do—in the defense of a democracy that is peripheral to U.S. alliance systems.
Russia’s preparations for war, and the West’s relative inaction, informs Xi’s own awful calculus about a potential Taiwan invasion, and diverts the international spotlight from his “Genocide Games.” If Putin actually invades, the West and Russia could militarily and economically debilitate each other, empowering Xi even more.
Short of war, what are Putin and Xi learning?
The United States and allies are willing to threaten massive economic sanctions against Russia, likely to include removal of the country from the world’s SWIFT interbank transfer system. The allies are also willing to flow limited asymmetric weapons into Ukraine, including relatively weak, compared to what is available, anti-tank and surface-to-air missiles (SAM).
Britain and some of the Baltic states deserve credit for being leaders on the delivery of asymmetric weapons, perhaps due to more recent, pressing, and personal experiences with territorially-aggressive dictators. Former President Donald Trump first approved the flow of Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine in 2018, for which he also deserves credit.
However, these lethal weapons—as important as they are—are insufficient to deter Putin with certainty.
A Possible Xi-Putin Deal
What is Xi willing to provide Putin in exchange for the motherlode of information that daily flows about NATO’s red lines, not to mention Russian self-banishment further into a status of pariah state with whom only Xi’s China will do business?
Xi will support Russia diplomatically, including through China’s veto on the United Nations Security Council. Xi will promise (for what it’s worth after Beijing’s many broken promises) to buy more of Russia’s exports, including oil and gas, especially if sanctions hit Russia particularly hard, which they will.
The Risk of Global Escalation
However, any attempt by China to mitigate the economic blows that the West is planning for Russia could land China itself into secondary sanctions. Beijing may resist this and could, in turn, threaten economic countersanctions against the West. For example, the United States depends upon China for many of its medical and pharmaceutical imports, which Beijing could slow or stop altogether.That would escalate quickly. Economic sanctions and countersanctions between the West and China, if placed on existential goods like energy or medical supplies, could lead to further decoupling or even military conflict.
President Joe Biden, acutely aware of the risk of escalation, believes that U.S. troops in Ukraine to rescue American citizens could risk a “world war,” and so is showing his hand by publicly refusing any such deployment.
Increased Military Support to Ukraine Is Essential for Deterrence
For this reason, military materiel flowing into Ukraine from the United States and allies is especially important to deter Putin.According to Richard Fisher, a senior fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, “so far the U.S. has transferred about 800 to 1200 FGM-148 Javelin guided anti-tank missiles, with a maximum range of 4.7 km but with accurate all weather guidance and a tandem warhead able to defeat reactive armor.”
Ukraine has received, from the Baltic states, FIM-92 Stinger shoulder-launched anti-aircraft missiles, according to Fisher.
The United States could provide Sensor Fuzed Weapons (SFW), anti-ship missiles, and long-range anti-aircraft missiles. But if we wait, it could be too late. It would be better to provide them now.
“While they would have to be delivered by Ukrainian combat aircraft into very dense Russian missile and gun anti-aircraft networks, U.S. Sensor Fuzed Munitions have the potential to provide Ukraine with an asymmetric advantage that could take out thousands of Russian tanks, mobile artillery, armored support vehicles and trucks,” Fisher wrote in an email.
“If coordinated with unmanned aircraft strikes and electronic warfare attacks, perhaps enough Ukrainian aircraft could get through so that Sensor Fuzed Munitions could deflate the initial Russian offensive in its early stages and allow Ukrainian combined forces to deliver decisive counter attacks.”
Fisher estimates that approximately 400 sensor-fuzed munitions, each of which is armed with 40 independently-targeted munitions, would enable Ukraine to disable thousands of Russian tanks and support vehicles, depleting Russian armored strength for years into the future.
Democracies Must Stand Up to China and Russia
Ukraine is a fellow democracy and, as such, the rest of the world’s democracies, and their allies that value the stability of the international system, should stand by Kiev shoulder-to-shoulder to deter or defeat Russia, as need be.More should be done by the United States, NATO, and allies to support Ukraine with international boots on the ground, as well as increased delivery of higher-quality lethal munitions capable of decisively defeating, or even rolling back, Russian forces by ground and air.
Apparently, that is necessary to deter Russia’s current show of belligerence, which is imposing a major cost in terms of information revelation that is already harming the security of democracies globally, even if Moscow ultimately decides not to invade. The information loss by democracies helps both Moscow and Beijing in their illiberal and militaristic plans for future aggression.
NATO cannot let China benefit from this information, or from the power vacuum left by a U.S.-Russian war. China should be on notice that a war between any NATO ally and Russia—because of Beijing’s involvement in supporting Moscow diplomatically and economically—would necessarily be a NATO-China war.
The Biden administration has thus far failed to deter aggression by both Russia and China, with China benefiting most by Russia’s current aggression toward Ukraine. Beijing must not be allowed to stay high and dry during a European conflict.
The United States, NATO, and other allies must toughen up, project their power, and more effectively and quickly deter the world’s most aggressive dictators.
