The announcement is expected any day from the Arbitral Tribunal at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague on whether it has jurisdiction to rule on the Philippines’ case against China’s expansive maritime claims in the South China Sea. In the ensuing hearing, a narrow ruling against China’s “nine-dashed line” is the most likely outcome, suggests Ashley Townshend, a research fellow in the Alliance 21 Program at the U.S. Studies Center, University of Sydney. He identifies an opportunity to reduce a key cause of tension in the South China Sea, but that requires China and Southeast Asia’s littoral nations to approach the verdict with restraint. All parties should recognize political realities and adopt a collaborative approach in returning to negotiations.