Niger Coup: Concerns Over Planned Use of Regional Force to Restore Democracy

Nigeriens participate in a march called by supporters of coup leader Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani in Niamey, Niger, July 30, 2023. The Canadian Press/AP-Sam Mednick

On July 26, Niger was engulfed in political chaos when President Mohamed Bazoum was ousted in a coup by the presidential guard—a group that’s supposed to protect his office and guard the country from coups such as the one it executed.

Announcing in a Nigerien state television, the soldiers said the takeover was because of “the continuing deterioration of the security situation, and poor economic and social governance,” and that “the defense and security forces are managing the situation. All external partners are asked not to interfere.”

Two days later, Gen. Abdourahamane Tchiani, the head of Niger’s presidential guard since 2011, declared himself head of state in a televised address.

Niger, which is geographically the largest country in West Africa, is a part of the Sahel—an unstable region beset by military takeovers and plagued with insurgency linked to terror groups such as Boko Haram, al Qaeda, and ISIS.

Before the coup, Niger was one of the few democracies left in the Sahel, and Mr. Bazoum was the first democratically elected leader to succeed another since Niger’s independence from France in 1960.

But this recent coup didn’t come as a surprise as the country is constantly faced with the threat of insurrections. Even when Mr. Bazoum was elected president in 2021, there was a coup attempt about two days before his inauguration. But it was thwarted by the presidential guards.

‘Coercive Diplomacy’

Niger’s recent coup attracted global attention and condemnation from Western nations including the United States, the EU, Britain, the African Union, the West African regional bloc ECOWAS, and France, the former colonial power.

Although Russia condemned the coup, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group, reportedly hailed the military takeover in Niger, describing it as “nothing other than the struggle of the people of Niger with their colonizers.”

When the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) responded on July 30, it first enacted sanctions against Niger and then issued an ultimatum to the ruling military junta asking it to either cede power within a week or face a military intervention.

ECOWAS is a regional body comprising 15 West African countries.

But its plan to use force didn’t sit well with some groups and even military-ruled governments in the region.

On July 31, Burkina Faso and Mali—both ECOWAS member states under military rule—released a joint statement warning that “any military intervention against Niger will be considered as a declaration of war against Burkina Faso and Mali.”

Guinea, which has been under military rule since 2021, also expressed support for Niger’s junta and urged the bloc to “come to its senses.“

However, the ECOWAS deadline expired on Aug. 7, and nothing changed as the junta refused to cede power and release the detained Mr. Bazoum.

Instead, the junta announced hours before the bloc’s deadline that the country’s airspace will be closed until further notice because of “the threat of intervention being prepared in a neighboring country.”

The military junta has demonstrated readiness for a potential military intervention with the recent arrival of troops from other parts of the country to Niamey, Niger’s capital.

But the leaders of the ECOWAS have said that all options remain open—including the use of force—to restore democracy in Niger and release Mr. Bazoum.

The regional bloc reiterated this when it convened for an emergency summit held on Aug. 10 in Abuja, Nigeria.

“No option is taken off the table, including the use of force as a last resort,” Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu, who assumed the chairmanship of ECOWAS in July, said at the end of the summit.

The leaders also directed the deployment of a standby force to restore democracy in Niger. Shortly before ECOWAS directed standby force be deployed, Niger’s military junta threatened to kill Mr. Bazoum if the regional bloc attempt any military intervention.

Earlier, Mr. Tinubu wrote to his country’s national assembly indicating ECOWAS’s intention to use force in Niger if the coup leaders don’t cede power. But lawmakers, especially those from northern states bordering Niger, strongly oppose military intervention.

Many Nigerians said that their country is already battling its own security problems, so deploying Nigeria’s military—the most powerful army in the region—isn’t a wise decision.

On Aug. 12, some residents in Nigeria’s Kano state took to the street to protest against an attempt to use force to restore democratic rule in Niger.

As they moved in procession, they chanted:“Nigeriens are our brothers. Nigeriens are also our family.”

Raising Nigeria and Niger flags, they continued: “Niger is ours. We don’t want war. War against Niger is injustice, a plot by the Western forces.”

They fear war in Niger will have a devastating impact on Nigeria, particularly on communities bordering the military-controlled country.

But to restore constitutional order in Niger and maintain stability in the region, Nnamdi Chife, a Nigeria-based security analyst, said that the use of force isn’t out of place. It’s called “coercive diplomacy; force backed by diplomacy,” he said.

“That Nigeria is having its own security challenges does not mean we cannot intervene [militarily],” Mr. Chife told The Epoch Times. “War is unpleasant, but you have to back your diplomacy negotiation with force.

“We cannot say because we are facing internal security challenges we should allow democracies to be overthrown. Before you know it, some people in Nigeria might have the same [coup] idea.”

Meanwhile, ECOWAS has previously sent troops to intervene in Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea-Bissau, and Gambia for different reasons, including helping to end civil wars.

Gambia’s case was notable.

In 2017, ECOWAS deployed military forces to remove then-President Yahya Jammeh, who didn’t want to accept defeat and give up power after the election. But he was forced to step down after a show of force at the border.

Is ECOWAS to Blame?

Coups are becoming prevalent in Africa. All but one of the 17 coups recorded around the world since 2017—the exception is one in Myanmar in 2021—have happened in Africa. Of the six coup attempts in Africa in 2021, four were successful, indicating that coups are easily conceived of and executed on the continent.

Mr. Chife said the successful coups in Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Mali could have inspired Niger soldiers to overthrow Mr. Bazoum. He blamed this on ECOWAS’ and the African Union’s inability to “take significant action to forestall it.”

“What I expected ECOWAS to do is the same action being taken by them to use dialogue and force to restore democracy in Niger. That is the same action that ought to have been taken in Burkina Faso and Mali,” Mr. Chife said.

Analysts say that the region may eventually be overthrown if ECOWAS doesn’t act fast to prevent any other coup attempts.

“If it is not done, these coup plotters will have their way, and it will become a normal thing, and they will start converting democracy. Before you know it, the West African region will be engulfed in civil strife,” Mr. Chife said.

Fear of War

Niger has a variety of resources and is a significant producer of uranium, a heavy metallic element that provides nuclear fuel. Despite this, Niger—with a population of a little more than 27 million people—remains one of the world’s poorest countries.

Many Nigeriens blame former colonial power France for the high poverty rate and deteriorating security in their country.

Anti-French protests gained traction in the wake of the coup as thousands of Nigeriens came out to support the junta, waving Russian flags and holding signs that read, “Down with France, long live Putin.”

Although the uranium-rich country has been battling insurgency from jihadists, it appeared relatively more stable than its neighbors in the region. Mr. Bazoum was a crucial Western ally in curbing illegal migration and fighting against Islamist jihadists in Sahel.

Since 2021, the number of reported deaths from political violence and conflict was lower in Niger than in its neighbors in the Sahel region, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project.

Yet, the mutinous soldiers said that a jihadist threat was the major reason why the military seized power in Niger.

The coups in Burkina Faso and Mali haven’t changed anything. There are more deaths recorded from jihadist attacks since the military takeovers in both countries, despite the presence of 1,000 heavily armed mercenaries from the Wagner Group in Mali.

“Both countries are struggling to contain the Islamists, the same reason they gave for their takeover. They just looked for an opportunity to take over power,” Mr. Chife said. “Niger has tried [to fight jihadists], so there’s no reason to take over power. If this coup is not addressed, Niger’s security problem might also increase,” such as in the military-ruled Burkina Faso and Mali.

Already, the Wagner Group is “taking advantage“ of instability in Niger, according to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

Even Mr. Bazoum expressed his concerns about Wagner’s growing influence in Africa.

In an opinion piece published in The Washington Post on Aug. 3, Mr. Bazoum wrote that “with an open invitation from the coup plotters and their regional allies, the entire central Sahel region could fall to Russian influence via the Wagner Group, whose brutal terrorism has been on full display in Ukraine.”

What comes next is unclear. “The only fear is that of war,” Mr. Chife said.

“It is very important we have dialogue and negotiation on one hand, and use of force on the other hand to compel [the military junta] to return to democracy.”