Uncertain Future as Three Junta-Led West African Nations Quit Regional Bloc

The head of head of Niger's military government General Abdourahamane Tiani (C), Malian Colonel Assimi Goita (3rd R) and Burkina Faso's Captain Ibrahim Traore (2nd R) arrive in Niamey on July 6, 2024. The military leaders ruling Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger entered a new "confederation" on July 6, 2024. AFP

Three West African junta-led nations of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have officially withdrawn from the 15-member Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

The exit of the three Sahelian nations came one year after they formally notified the regional group of their desire to withdraw, a time the bloc demanded the restoration of democratic rule in Niger following a military coup that marked the sixth military takeover in three years in West Africa.

Announcing the withdrawal in a statement on Jan. 29, ECOWAS—which was created in 1975 to promote “economic cooperation” among member states—says it will keep its “doors open” and in the “spirit of regional solidarity and in the interest of the people.”

The bloc requested other member states to continue to allow the citizens of the three junta-led countries to enjoy benefits and privileges such as the free movement of goods and people within the region with an ECOWAS passport, even though the three junta-led countries launched their own common passport.

“The statement [of ECOWAS] is reconciliatory. The statement is one that opens doors for more dialogue between ECOWAS and the three Sahelian states,” said Chris Kwaja, the country director for Nigeria at the United States Institute of Peace.

“So, we look forward to their response with a view to understanding where West Africa stands when it comes to the relationship between ECOWAS and these three Sahelian states.”

But whether these three countries will return to the bloc is difficult to predict at this early stage.

The military leaders had earlier accused ECOWAS of imposing “inhuman, illegal, and illegitimate” sanctions against them after the different coups that brought them to power.

In addition, the military rulers believe that ECOWAS has not provided enough support to help them fight jihadist violence which has rocked the Sahel for years.

Kwaja said the three military governments will have to devise fresh strategies to help them fight terrorism in the area, considering that the three Sahelian nations may miss out on intelligence ECOWAS shares with its member states.

“With this decision to leave ECOWAS, it means they will not be part of the ECOWAS strategy of countering terror,” he told The Epoch Times. “They have to now design their own methods and new ways of relationship will be designed.”

Already, the three countries have created the Alliance of Sahel States (AES).

Formed in September 2023, the alliance is a mutual defense pact, aimed at guarding against external threats.

They have also announced a unified army of 5,000 men to fight jihadists in the Sahel.

Uncertain Future for ECOWAS

Mixed reactions have trailed the Sahel states’ departure from the West African bloc, as have the economic, security, political, and diplomatic consequences.

However, while the withdrawal creates a gap in the decades of regional integration framework, there are growing concerns that the development may affect efforts to collectively tackle regional challenges.

Some experts believe the future of the regional bloc is uncertain and that the withdrawal of three founding members will “weaken ECOWAS’ ability to regulate political crises in the regional area,” said Gilles Yabi, founder of the West African think tank Wathi.

But Kwaja thinks otherwise.

“If they [the three nations] are part of ECOWAS, ECOWAS will be stronger. But if they are not there, it’s like having a chair with four legs and one is broken. There are ways you can sit on the three-legged chair and you will be comfortable,” he said.

“ECOWAS will feel their absence but not feel their absence to the extent that it weakens ECOWAS.”

Regardless, Kwaja believes that ECOWAS has more work to do in uniting and gaining the trust of its member states so they don’t withdraw from the bloc.

Already, the newly elected President John Dramani Mahama of Ghana has engaged the AES and has announced that he will name an envoy to the new bloc.

“The new president does not have the same position of principle towards the coups as his predecessors,” said Rinaldo Depagne, deputy Africa project director at the International Crisis Group (ICG).

“The question that arises now is whether we can be with the AES and with ECOWAS at the same time.”

Meanwhile, it is unclear how the military-led governments intend to relate with other member states of ECOWAS.

For example, Niger has refused to reopen its border with Benin, accusing it of hosting jihadist training camps.

It also accused neighboring Nigeria of serving as a “rear base” for efforts to “destabilize it”; allegations both countries denied.

Collaboration with Russia 

Although the three nations have given the impression that they can survive without ECOWAS’ support, Kwaja said “I don’t see them as economies that are buoyant in a way that they can effectively address their livelihood and governance challenges.”

And before formally withdrawing from ECOWAS, the three countries distanced themselves completely from former colonial power France, and are now collaborating with Russia.

But Kwaja explained that strengthening ties with Russia might not be the best move because of the country’s historical involvement and connections to Africa.

He noted that “Russia does not have any history of peacebuilding and development aid in Africa.”

Russia only has three known histories in Africa, Kwaja argued.

One is the arms trade, involving the supply of arms to Africa.

The second is buying natural resources from Africa.

The third is the bilateral education agreement between Nigeria and Russia, which has allowed thousands of Nigerians to study in Russian universities.

“So, it means they [junta-led countries] need to take time to understand who they are dealing with so as not to [lose] Russia and ECOWAS,” Kwaja said.

‘A United Future’

Despite its shortcomings, the regional bloc has become a top political authority in West Africa.

However, critics argued that there is an urgent need for ECOWAS reform, to allay citizens’ fears, unite and stabilize the region, and prevent coups.

“ECOWAS needs to re-evaluate itself in terms of its identity, strength, and goodwill with a view to ensuring that this kind of mistake does not happen,” Kwaja said.

It must be “more strategic, more conscious, and more reflective about the credible pathway to take in having a region that works for all,” he added.

One of the ways to achieve this, suggests Kwaja, is for ECOWAS to place human security at the front burner of the bloc’s policies and constantly communicate its vision with the people.

“Some people feel ECOWAS has become a club of heads of state and governments rather than pushing the interests of their citizens. ECOWAS should take the vision of a united future of West Africa to the next level,” Kwaja said.