A week ago, Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) led Republican challenger Blake Masters by 6 percentage points. Now, just days before the Nov. 8 election, a new poll by Wick shows Masters closing the gap with the incumbent to 2 points.
Additionally, according to FiveThirtyEight, Wick’s results align with other polls conducted just a week earlier.
An Ohio Predictive Insights poll conducted from Oct. 24 to Oct. 26 showed Kelly at 48 percent and Masters at 46 percent. In fact, except for one poll by Siena College/The New York Times that has Kelly with a 6-point lead, all of the latest polls show that the race between Kelly and Masters is neck-and-neck.
These polls were conducted after Masters and Kelly squared off in a debate in which the Republican appeared to make an effort to court more moderate Arizona voters.
Everything in Moderation
According to Wick’s poll, the most critical issue to Arizona voters is “Threats to Democracy,” at 33.8 percent, “Cost of Living” (27 percent), and “Immigration/Border security” (12.1 percent). Abortion was fifth, at 9.2 percent.Moreover, the top choice was “moderate,” with 29.8 percent when respondents were given the option to note their political ideology. “Somewhat Conservative” came in second with 24.6 percent.
In the past, Masters has taken a strong Trump stance, while Kelly has continually courted moderates by highlighting his willingness to work across the aisle.
As a result, Republican leaders have questioned their party’s ability to win Arizona.
At a Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce luncheon, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) alluded to “candidate quality” as an issue for the Republican Party in Arizona.
Sen. Mark Kelly speaks to supporters during an election night event in Tucson, Ariz., on Nov. 3, 2020. Courtney Pedroza/Getty Images
But the Oct. 6 debate saw Masters softening his stance on issues such as abortion and election integrity and denouncing Kelly as a far-left candidate, not a moderate, by pointing to his partisan voting record.
Masters also scrubbed his campaign website of past references to his early MAGA support, his “100 percent” pro-life stance, and his view that if elections were “fair,” Donald Trump would be president.
According to website archives, the positions were on his website as late as Aug. 18.
Those changes seem to be resonating with Arizona voters as polls now show Masters eating away at Kelly’s lead.
Arizona Decides
Arizona has leaned toward a more moderate electorate in the past two elections. In 2018, Republican U.S. Senate candidate Martha McSally lost to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema in what, at the time, was a significant upset.In 2020, McSally lost again, but that was to Kelly in a special election to serve the last two years of the late Republican Sen. John McCain’s term.
Seemingly because of Arizona’s moderate stance, Masters has taken measures to soften his previous Trump support.
In the U.S. Senate, 35 seats out of 100 are up for election on Nov. 8, with Democrats currently controlling 14 of those seats and Republicans 21.
The Capitol in Washington on Aug. 6, 2022. Stephani Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images
Fifteen of the 35 seats up for election are considered “Solid Republican” by the Cook Political Report—nine are “Solid Democrat;” three on each side lean “D” and “R,” and one is “Likely R.” Only four are considered a “toss-up.”
Those “toss-up” seats have drawn the nation’s attention as the outcomes will determine who controls the U.S. Senate going into 2023. One of those seats is in Arizona.
The results of Wick’s poll had a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points, was conducted between Oct. 26 and Oct. 30, and was a random sampling of 1,122 registered voters in Arizona.
