Disney World Summer Numbers Dropping as Families Skip School and Take Kids Somewhere Cheaper

The Cinderella Castle at the Magic Kingdom Park at Walt Disney World is seen at the theme park in Lake Buena Vista, Fla, on Aug. 30, 2021. John Raoux/AP Photo

The Walt Disney World Resort is playing host to much smaller crowds this summer than it did in previous years. Theme park experts say families are staying away because of record heat, rising costs, and their decisions to visit at other times of the year.

After two years of strong post-pandemic numbers, Disney’s summer numbers are dropping, according to the latest data collected by the travel company Touring Plans. The figures include one of the lowest recorded park crowds for the Fourth of July in recent history.

Using a 1–10 scaling system, Touring Plans tracks daily crowd levels at Disney World’s four theme parks: Magic Kingdom Park, EPCOT, Disney’s Hollywood Studios, and Disney’s Animal Kingdom.

The daily average for all four theme parks in June was 5.56. In June 2022, that average level was 6.46.

An aerial view of Walt Disney World in Lake Buena Vista, Fla., on Feb. 8, 2023. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

The first 11 days of July recorded a daily average crowd level of 4.54. By July 11, 2022, the average daily crowd level was 6.36.

The levels are determined by the average wait times posted for each park’s key attractions during the day.

Michael Arnold, an annual pass holder and a writer for DisneyDining.com, said he has experienced significantly lower crowds and shorter wait times during his latest visits.

Mr. Arnold said the most astonishing time drop that he noticed was the wait time for Avatar: Flight of Passage at Disney’s Animal Kingdom. The 4-D simulator ride—infamous for maintaining a wait time of more than 100 minutes almost daily—was found to have a 55-minute wait in the middle of the day.

The Walt Disney Co. continues to face a tumultuous 2023.

Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Christine McCarthy smiles as she speaks during the Milken Institute's 22nd annual Global Conference in Beverly Hills, Calif. on April 29, 2019. Mike Blake/Reuters

Its current fiscal quarter has featured the departure of two C-level executives, further box office flops, and an enduring bout with Florida’s Gov. Ron DeSantis over control of the Reedy Creek Improvement District.

Now, its largest theme park resort complex is having the worst summer crowds since its restrictive reopening after the COVID-justified shutdown.

Disney’s now-former Chief Financial Officer Christine McCarthy warned of a drop in theme park attendance at the company’s second-quarter earnings webcast in May but said it was to be expected.

“Please keep in mind that in the back half of this fiscal year, there will be an unfavorable comparison against the prior year’s incredibly successful 50th-anniversary celebration at Walt Disney World,” she said.

“We typically see some moderation in demand as we lap these types of events, and third-quarter-to-date performance has been in line with those historical trends.”

Independent theme park experts agree that a post-anniversary lull made sense, but they also say general costs and the decision to avoid the Florida summer heat are keeping a larger number of families away from the “Most Magical Place On Earth.”

Once upon a time, a child’s visit to Disney World was determined by his or her school schedule. Summer vacation, the Christmas holiday season, spring break, and three-day weekends became peak seasons for family visits.

But those days of traditional family travel, experts said, might be in the past.

“Summer crowds have been declining for a few years,” said Touring Plans master statistician Fred Hazelton. “We attribute this to the increased willingness of parents to take children out of school for trips rather than wait until summer.”

A family walks past Cinderella Castle at Walt Disney World in Lake Buena Vista, Fla., on Dec. 21, 2020. Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel via AP

Disney reported “attendance growth and higher occupied room nights” in its latest quarterly earnings report.

And Ms. McCarthy specifically announced a 7 percent increase in attendance during the first three months of 2023 as compared with 2022.

That three-month period includes traditional vacation time slots: the tail end of Disney’s holiday celebration and long weekends such as President’s Day and Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

“Spring break is still a thing, though, but those crowd sizes depend on where Easter falls; we can’t necessarily attribute a light or heavy spring break season to guest preference,” Mr. Hazelton said.

“I think guests do have some regard for travel windows like summer and spring break, but less so than, say, 15 years ago. Now, we see increases in crowds during October and February instead.”

Mr. Arnold said, “A lot of people will pull their kids out early fall into September or early October to try to come down and enjoy the Halloween parties and things like that before it gets crazy busy. A lot ... will pull their kids out, you know, late winter, early spring before the spring break crowds hit.

“There’s been plenty of times where our kids have stayed home so we could go to Disney World before for a couple of days.

“I personally don’t see anything wrong with that. Sure, there’s people out there that disagree, but to each their own, I guess.”

Alexis Pechek, a content creator and mother of three, told The Epoch Times, “Our kids’ school doesn’t have a problem with vacations during the school year. Not every parent has the summer off—or can take the summer off—so we all have to do what benefits us.

“For parents who are hesitant to take a vacation during the school year, I would say do it.

“They are only young once, and it’s not like they won’t be learning from an amazing experience ... to travel to a place like Disney.”

‘They Can’t Afford Disney Anymore’

Tied to families’ decisions to visit outside of traditional vacation seasons is the increasing cost that parents must pay to go, according to Len Testa, president of Touring Plans.

“Disney’s explicitly encouraged this by pricing admission and hotels lower during those previously slower times and limiting the number of guests in the parks through its parks reservation system,” Mr. Testa said.

Walt Disney World Resort frequently offers discounts throughout the year for ticket sales and resort hotel stays. And special pricing is available for Florida residents.

A sign near an entranceway to Walt Disney World in Orlando, Fla., on May 22, 2023. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

However, a standard five-day ticket valid for all four theme parks each day, called a “park hopper,” would cost more than $135 per day for would-be guests this July, according to Disney World’s website.

That same ticket could cost $117 per day in September.

“You know, people are struggling to put groceries on their table. They’re struggling to fill up their cars. They can’t afford Disney anymore,” Mr. Arnold said. “I think people are being forced out of their Disney World vacations.”

The least expensive time for a family to buy and use their five-day park hopper ticket in 2024 will be in August and September. They’re the only two months of 2024 for which that five-day standard park hopper ticket is available for less than $120 per day.

A Disney World vacation costs more than 60 percent of what the average American household spent on travel before the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Mr. Testa. That average household travel expense in 2019 was $2,100, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Rising Heat and Cooling Fad

The Fourth of July has attracted guests to Walt Disney World for years. Already known for its nightly fireworks displays, the Magic Kingdom hosts a special spectacular that’s performed only on Independence Day. But this year’s crowds were reported to be noticeably smaller.

Mr. Arnold blamed the heat and highlighted the difference between annual pass holders and other Disney World guests.

“Annual pass holders stay home,” he said. “I don’t know many annual pass holders that want to go to the parks on a major holiday. And then you combine that with the fact that it feels like 110 degrees.

“Nobody wants to go ... sit at Main Street and Magic Kingdom all day. I bet the resort pools were packed.”

People visit the Magic Kingdom Park at Walt Disney World Resort in Lake Buena Vista, Fla., on April 18, 2022. Ted Shaffrey/AP Photo

Mr. Testa said, “Disney’s attendance bounced back on July 5 and remained above average for the rest of the week. So I really think it was a combination of that heat advisory and the threat of thunderstorms canceling the fireworks that kept people out of the parks.”

But as the heat rises, the experts say the travel fad of visiting Disney World is cooling.

Disney created a “huge influx” of visitors over the past three years, according to Mr. Arnold. It was a combination of visitors who rescheduled their trip because of COVID-19, post-COVID-shutdown visitors who were looking to travel somewhere safe, and visitors coming for Disney World’s 50th-anniversary celebration.

“We’re starting to see that level out, and you combine things like nasty weather this summer, and people can’t afford to go; that’s kind of what you’re seeing over these past couple of weeks,” he said.

But families are still going on vacation—just not to Disney World.

“‘Revenge travel’ is probably much less of a factor now. I think people have had plenty of time to get that out of their system,” Mr. Testa said. “At Disney’s fairly high price point, it’s pretty clear that families are trying other options. Cruises have done really well this year—including Disney’s cruise line.”

The Walt Disney Company didn’t respond by press time to The Epoch Times’ request for comment.