“Between the roughly 30 or more possible ICBM launchers at Hanggin Banner, conservative estimates on the number of launchers at the Hami and Guazhou ICBM silo sites, and the PLARF’s current force of operational ICBM brigades, the PLARF’s projected inventory of ground-based ICBM launchers is close to or more than the United States’ current number of deployed Minuteman III ICBMs. With the addition of at least two Type 096 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines as identified in the 2020 China Military Power Report and a conservative estimate of one brigade of 20 H-20 stealth bombers, China’s future inventory of strategic nuclear delivery systems seems on track to approaching parity with those of the United States and Russia.”
From virtually no ICBM capability in the early 1980s to near-parity with the United States in a mere four decades? Even as recently as 2015, the U.S. Department of Defense reported that China’s arsenal consisted of just 50 to 60 liquid-fueled ICBMs. But what is worse than the above analysis is that, while the New START Treaty limits the United States to “1,550 nuclear warheads on deployed ICBMs, deployed SLBMs, and deployed heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments,” the Communist Chinese (ChiComs) are unconstrained by any nuclear weapons limitations and continue to resist bilateral nuclear arms talks with the United States.The commissioning of the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) on Dec. 31, 2015 should have been a clue as to long-term ChiCom intentions. But the reality is that the ChiComs have been targeting nuclear parity with the United States for decades while publicly claiming otherwise. As in many other human endeavors, the ChiComs have pursued leadership through any available means, including subterfuge, while camouflaging their real intentions. Parity with the United States (and Russia) in nuclear weapons, technology, and missiles is but a waystation on the road to leadership, dominance, and coercion—the real ChiCom objectives.
The transformation of China’s strategic rocket force from an antiquated mixture of older Soviet technology plus indigenous modifications into a modern capability that is nearing parity with the United States is breathtaking, both in its scope and also the rapidity in which it was accomplished.
Indigenous research, development, test, and evaluation in ChiCom laboratories to create capabilities from scratch—for example, multiple independently-targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs) or solid-fueled rocket design—would have taken many decades to accomplish without the infusion and reengineering of technologies from the West obtained through bribery, corruption, theft, and espionage.
“Chinagate aka Commercegate is the most serious scandal in U.S. history. It involves the transfer of America’s most sensitive technology, including but not limited to nuclear missile and satellite technology, possibly in exchange for millions of dollars in contributions to the 1996 Clinton-Gore re-election effort and the Democratic National Committee.”
Here is a short list of what the ChiComs ultimately received from the Clinton administration in the 1990s:• A “strategic partnership” which set the tone for various technology transfers to China. • The loss of American manufacturing jobs that were transferred to China as a result of Executive Order 12850 (which removed Most-Favored Nation status reviews from Congress to the White House), including foundational capabilities such as precision tool-making and ball bearing production. • Advanced missile technology transfers, which destroyed the U.S. strategic advantage, as noted above and here. • A satellite launch waiver which allowed the Chinese to launch a Loral Space and Communications satellite, ultimately giving away missile and satellite technology to the ChiComs leading to near-parity with the United States in a single generation.
To the above plunder must be added the fruit of continuous espionage and technology theft via the Thousand Talents program. This is a program aimed at attracting foreign scientists, engineers, and instructors to Chinese high technology universities, who are then exploited by the Ministry of Education and Ministry of State Security for espionage purposes.1. International research and development (R&D) in China by multi-national companies. 2. National technology transfer centers. 3. Advocacy groups based in the United States. 4. Employment of foreign subject matter experts in China (i.e., Thousand Talents). 5. Monitoring and use of “returning” Chinese students and scholars. 6. Contributions of “overseas Chinese” professionals. 7. Open source collection (Open Source Intelligence—OSINT).
And the unqualified success of these coordinated efforts is borne out by ADM Richard’s declaration of a ChiCom nuclear breakout.Conclusion
For decades, the ChiComs have conducted a disciplined campaign to rapidly acquire, reengineer, and integrate nuclear weapons technologies into an array of sophisticated weapons, missiles, surveillance systems, and command and control capabilities. Theft, bribery, and straight purchase to obtain U.S. technologies have directly led to this latest ChiCom-related “Sputnik” moment.How will the United States and its allies respond to an increasingly belligerent and confident communist regime in Beijing that is on the verge of nuclear parity if not nuclear supremacy? Dangerous times indeed, but it should be no surprise at all.