Trans Mountain Pipeline Running Close to Full Capacity: RBC

Crude oil tankers are docked at the Trans Mountain Westridge Marine Terminal in Burnaby, B.C., on June 10, 2024. The Canadian Press/Darryl Dyck

An analysis of oil tanker activity in British Columbia by the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) suggests the Trans Mountain Pipeline ran close to full capacity during the month of April.

RBC analysts said 28 tankers departed from the Westridge Marine Terminal in Burnaby last month.

“Tanker volumes in April would suggest to us that the Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMPL) could have run above contracted capacity rates of 712,000 bbl/d, making use of spot ability,” the note says.

The pipeline has a total capacity of 890,000 barrels per day, with 712,000 barrels reserved for firm service. RBC said it estimates that approximately 30 tanker loadings would represent full utilization of the pipeline’s capacity.

The bank, using a proprietary tool to track tankers, identified the export markets for Canadian crude in April. California was noted as receiving 115 shipments, for approximately 38.1 million barrels. Tankers also brought oil from Trans Mountain to Alaska and Washington state.

Asia was also the end destination of multiple oil shipments, with China receiving the bulk. China received 80 shipments from Canada, South Korea four, and Japan two. The Southeast Asian nations of Brunei and Indonesia received a shipment each.

Pipelines have become a hot issue in recent months, amid the uncertainty caused by tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Oil is Canada’s most valuable export and most of it is destined to the United States.

There is also no oil pipeline linking oil produced in Western provinces to Eastern regions of Canada, which are dependent on oil coming from the United States and other foreign countries.

There has been growing support for building new pipelines in Canada, including from sectors that have been resistant in recent years, such as the prime minister and the province of Quebec.

Prime Minister Mark Carney said last week he’s open to building new pipelines if there’s a consensus, and that he could work to build that consensus.

Two ministers shortly after struck a different tone. Canadian Identity Minister Steven Guilbeault, who was formerly minister of environment and climate change, said Ottawa had previously bought the Trans Mountain Pipeline and that it’s only running at 40 percent capacity.

“So I think before we start talking about building an entire new pipeline, maybe we should maximize the use of existing infrastructure,” Guilbeault said on May 14.

Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic LeBlanc told Radio-Canada on the same day that talks about building energy corridors don’t necessarily include oil pipelines.

Along with a changing tone from the prime minister, polls have showed Quebecers now support building new pipelines. Oil and gas projects had previously been killed by the government, citing the lack of “social accessibility.”

In Léger’s latest poll, 55 percent of respondents said they support new pipelines, with 26 percent opposing.

Quebec Premier François Legault has also changed his tune on pipelines.

“Quebecers are saying, ‘There’s no way Trump is going to control the oil we produce in Alberta.’ So, can we export it to Europe through Quebec instead of being stuck with Trump?” the premier said on a podcast. “There’s openness. I feel things are shifting.”

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith called this change in attitudes a “massive breakthrough” on her radio show and said she had been lobbying Legault for a long time on the issue.

Jennifer Cowan contributed to this report.