The study said the media and political analysts have also frequently relied on GDP growth as a metric to assess Canada’s economic performance relative to other countries and over different time periods.
‘Near the Bottom’
An example from the study shows that between 2000 and 2023, Canada had the second-highest rate of overall GDP growth in the Group of Seven (G7) countries.“However, after adjusting for population growth, Canada’s per-person GDP growth rate over the same period is near the bottom of the group and well below the G7 average,” the think tank said.
Without adjusting for population growth, Canada’s annual GDP growth rate was 1.8 percent over that period, the authors calculated—just behind that of the United States (1.9 percent). That rate also exceeded the G7 average of 1.4 percent and surpassed the UK (1.4 percent), France (1.1 percent), Germany (1.1 percent), Japan (0.6 percent), and Italy (0.2 percent).
After making the adjustment, comparing GDP growth per person instead, Canada’s real per-person GDP growth rate turned out to be 0.7 percent—worse than the G7 average of 1 percent and trailing further away from the Americans’ 1.2 percent. Germany (0.9 percent) and the UK (0.8 percent) also fared better than Canada. Japan and France tied with Canada at 0.7 percent while Italy trailed behind (0.1 percent).
The authors said the “widespread and frequent” reference to Canada’s overall GDP growth rates “does more to obscure public understanding of Canada’s economic performance than it does to enlighten it.”
“Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government in particular frequently makes use of this metric,” the authors wrote.
They noted that former Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who led the Conservative government from 2006 to 2015, similarly used international comparisons of GDP growth as evidence of successful economic policy.
‘Nearly Stagnant’
The study also tracked Canada’s rate of economic growth under the leadership of Mr. Trudeau and his four predecessors.“This metric shows that the rate of economic growth in Canada has been slower in recent years than in earlier historical periods,” it said.
Growth during the tenures of Mr. Justin Trudeau (1.6 percent) and Mr. Harper (1.5 percent) have been much lower than that under Brian Mulroney (2.1 percent), Jean Chrétien (3.4 percent), or Paul Martin (3 percent), the authors wrote.
When adjusted for population, the study says real per-person economic growth has been “nearly stagnant” since 2015 under the Trudeau government, averaging just 0.3 percent.
“When judging Canada’s economy, it’s crucial to accurately measure economic performance and living standards so Canadians are not misled,” Mr. Eisen said.